direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

[TheRumpledOne]

Quote from bilbod:

Part of the confusion comes from swapping some LSD's with SLD's without changing the name!

I have a better understanding of what you are doing now but some questions still remain.

Let me write a description of my understanding and you can point out what is incorrect.

1. Look at the previous 20 (could be variable depending on the instrument traded) bars.
2. Compute the H-O and O-L for each bar. SD=min(H-O,O-L) and LD=max(H-O,O-L).
3. Compute LSD and SLD. LSD=max(SD for previous 20 bars) and SLD=min(LD for last 20 bars).
4. Compute BO Size and Profit Target. BO Size=min(LSD,SLD)+1 and Profit Target=max(LSD,SLD).
5. Test the BO Size and Profit Target on previous 20 bars, if 90% profitable, trade the current bar.

I programmed 1-4 into the attached spreadsheet, 5 will require programming a macro.

One question is that you are excluding some values from the above calculations but I don't understand your explanation of which to exclude?

I don't understand swapping LSD's with SLD's if LSD>SLD, what is the logic behind that rule?

Bill

Yes, this could be an indicator, too.

NTW: please send me an email to gmail.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Quote from nukethewhales31:

drop a 20 EMA on your chart doesnt matter what the time frame is when price is above the 20 ema look how many up arrows will form in succession. and look how many will form down... the same is true if its under the 20 ema.... the 20 ema can be used to determine bias and also the if you are trading intraday the daily can provide bias.. you dont need indicators to trade.

Wrote a stats indicator to display how many bars are green/red above/below the moving average.

 

[nukethewhales31]

Quote from TheRumpledOne:

Yes, this could be an indicator, too.

NTW: please send me an email to gmail.

k i sent u an email.

 

[nukethewhales31]

Quote from TheRumpledOne:

Wrote a stats indicator to display how many bars are green/red above/below the moving average.

yeah i like that u can see the bias in it. 61.12%for under and 63% for above. much rather be long when above the 20 ema or short below it.

 

[nukethewhales31]

Quote from TheRumpledOne:

Very clear.. I can write an indicator to do that.

But, I call High - Open "HiOp" and Open - Low "LoOp".

LSD would be the Maximum of HiOp or MaxHiOp.

SLD would be the Minimum of OpLo or MinOpLo.

I assume we don't use 0 values.

Now, I just have to understand the significance.

the significance is like this is one way to evaluate movement by how the bar itself forms the first step.. you can trade this profitably.. but i try to move on to talk about using tick data when evaluating to gain precision. this basically says the shorter distance side X% of the time is y distance and the shortest distance on the long side x% of the time is A difference so if we set entrance to y+1 distance from open and take at A-1 distance and stop to the candles opposite side .. if the risk reward ratios are right we can generate profits just form statistically measuring how bars form... you can take this to the next point as you see in the one post... the significance i draw on as well is if you see a 3hour candle form down with a short side of X pips from open and a long side that says continuance to X pips distance should occur y% and you are wanting to trade that hourly or 30 min bar be with the 3hour bar statistics... i show that using something as simple as bar formation statistics can be traded profitably but this is an example.. everything needs to be refined and precision needs to be found of course and i go on to talk about measuring with tick data to see exactly how the fluxuations occur to create the bar.

 

[nukethewhales31]

Quote from TheRumpledOne:

I show frequency distribution for HIGH - OPEN and OPEN - LOW. Is this the same as your LONG and SHORT counts?

Trying to understand.

not quite.. im grouping the distance not from open low or open-high but which one is shortest side or longest open low maybe shorter than the open high but it could be grouped with a open high if that side is the shorter side... its about evaluating the bar. short side and long side of the bar using open-low or high-open to get which side is longer or shorter.

 

[nukethewhales31]

Quote from TheRumpledOne:

Is this size OK?

I am trying to learn/understand your use of the ema(20).

yeah the image size is fine here.im cool with that the 20 ema is just a bias tool if price is above the 20 ema bias is up likely to form green candles if under 20 likely to form red u can see that in the other chart u post its a nice indicator.

 

[nukethewhales31]

Quote from TheRumpledOne:

When you say %age, I am not 100% sure (pun intended) that we are talking about the same thing.

Would you please provide a formula?

Thanks in advance.

wave high - wave low = distance of previous leg or d1
previous wave high - newly created low= new distance or d2

d2/d1*100= % retracement run that on everywave and u start to see results.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

Just thought I would compare ema(20) vs. ema(5).

The Support/Resistance is for 21 bars since that's what you are using in your formula.

 

[TheRumpledOne]

You got me thinking...

Looking at the ema(2) for the above/below stats....

Hmmmm......

May be on to something!!