You mentioned comparing the same day, if I understood you correctly.
I like to compare the same hour since I am scalping pips.
direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31
- Thread starter nukethewhales31
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You mentioned comparing the same day, if I understood you correctly.
I like to compare the same hour since I am scalping pips.
please link the image and not embed.. also this is the place to talk about statistically looking at data u have several threads about what u r saying now.. this does not need to be another one...
for reference Kreslik.com or Babypips.com thread never lose again
for reference Kreslik.com or Babypips.com thread never lose again
what i discuss is this...
movement through understanding how u start using statistics to measure market movement..
then i discuss how this way of using statistics leads to error and to filter the error we need to approach the stats with tick data in the case of bar formations... generally it is an accepted idea that if price is below the 20 ema then price is likely to go down we show that bars that form under the 20 ema tend to be down... and the bars that form above the 20 ema tend to be up... this is the bias that i speak of... same thing with trendlines... price above a trendline price has more up bars price below price has more down bars.... im backing it up with stats the assumptions.
movement through understanding how u start using statistics to measure market movement..
then i discuss how this way of using statistics leads to error and to filter the error we need to approach the stats with tick data in the case of bar formations... generally it is an accepted idea that if price is below the 20 ema then price is likely to go down we show that bars that form under the 20 ema tend to be down... and the bars that form above the 20 ema tend to be up... this is the bias that i speak of... same thing with trendlines... price above a trendline price has more up bars price below price has more down bars.... im backing it up with stats the assumptions.
You mentioned waves.
I think a simple ZigZag does the trick.
Quote from TheRumpledOne:
You mentioned waves.
I think a simple ZigZag does the trick.
not so much the zig zag doesnt give u entrance.. the zig zag doesnt give u precision in ur trade to create best possible setups ill explain
I think we are headed in the same direction but are taking a slightly different path. I wish to study your work.
As far as EMAs go, a study prove that the 5 period EMA was the superior indicator.
Link??
I am talking about looking at data statistically.
in the chart u post where is the clearly defined entrance exits and profits for the zig zag... its just a line that follows price movement
since price moves in zig zags to begin with do we really need that indicator? but if we measure the waves and determine the areas where price tends to turn we have something of use. if we determine that price tends to go down under a trend line this bias... and price is under this trend line like in ur picture... we look for a short... we of course should include the line in our chart... we know maybe due to stats that price majorly turns at 50% of the previous wave distance... then we look for confluence ... if 50% movement up retracement resides at the trendline... then we have precision in our trade.
since price moves in zig zags to begin with do we really need that indicator? but if we measure the waves and determine the areas where price tends to turn we have something of use. if we determine that price tends to go down under a trend line this bias... and price is under this trend line like in ur picture... we look for a short... we of course should include the line in our chart... we know maybe due to stats that price majorly turns at 50% of the previous wave distance... then we look for confluence ... if 50% movement up retracement resides at the trendline... then we have precision in our trade.
i know but the large pictures are frustrating
so u can make em as large as u want just link them so they dont fill the thread.back to precision... if we know our precise entrance... we still need to figure a stop and profit target if we dont we are hurting ourselves. this is were forward walk data can be of importance to us. we gain our entrance/ stop historically and the target through forward walk. through actually forward walking we can determine probabilities for certain profit targets. the mix of probability of occurance and the risk:reward ratio must be constently adjusted to find the perfect relative distances without creating curve fitted data.