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Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Linked To COVID-19 Outbreak Across Upper Midwest
https://www.complex.com/life/2020/10/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-covid-19-spread
The 80th annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally will go down in infamy as a “superspreader event” that led to hundreds of thousands COVID-19 cases spanning several states and cost billions of dollars for public health care agencies. It was the nearly two-week event in August that drew half a million attendees, some of whom saw Smash Mouth frontman Steve Harwell tell a packed crowd, "We’re all here together tonight! Fuck that COVID shit."
And while the Sturgis rally is directly linked to 330 cases, experts believe it could be responsible for the Upper Midwest outbreak in the United States, according to a new report from the Washington Post.
The rally took place in South Dakota where no restrictions on gatherings were being imposed. Even as health officials pleaded with possible attendees to skip this year’s event, many were defiant over the belief that their freedoms were being taken away. Many went anyway, gathering in enclosed indoor spaces, like bars, restaurants, and tattoo parlors, while refusing to wear a mask.
More than 330 coronavirus cases, including one death, are officially tied to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally but they represent just the tip of the iceberg, experts say. That rally may have helped seed the Upper Midwest outbreak, via @BrittSham @bylenasunhttps://t.co/EAOAyXx377
— Anne Rumsey Gearan (@agearan) October 18, 2020
Even though the warning signs were present, and a survey concluded that 60 percent of residents wanted the rally to be postponed, there were companies in South Dakota that faced the possibility of losing their business if the event, which would account for a $2 million loss to the city, didn’t go on as planned. "There absolutely was no right decision,” city council member Terry Keszler said, who acknowledged crowds would've still shown up if a cancellation was announced.
As cases related to the event began to crop up, contact tracing created further complications as some refused to be tested, leading to a tally that wasn't included in the total tied to Sturgis. Kris Ehresmann, director of infectious-disease epidemiology at the Minnesota Department of Health, believes "the web just gets too complicated" when it comes to tracking the various tentacles of the virus.
"This motorcycle rally was and is such a big thing that people come from miles and miles away and they come from right next door. And it’s not reported anywhere who they are, where they live," said Benjamin Aaker, president of the South Dakota State Medical Association, adding, "Contact tracing on something like that is even harder than it is during normal circumstances."
Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Linked To COVID-19 Outbreak Across Upper Midwest
https://www.complex.com/life/2020/10/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-covid-19-spread
The 80th annual Sturgis Motorcycle Rally will go down in infamy as a “superspreader event” that led to hundreds of thousands COVID-19 cases spanning several states and cost billions of dollars for public health care agencies. It was the nearly two-week event in August that drew half a million attendees, some of whom saw Smash Mouth frontman Steve Harwell tell a packed crowd, "We’re all here together tonight! Fuck that COVID shit."
And while the Sturgis rally is directly linked to 330 cases, experts believe it could be responsible for the Upper Midwest outbreak in the United States, according to a new report from the Washington Post.
The rally took place in South Dakota where no restrictions on gatherings were being imposed. Even as health officials pleaded with possible attendees to skip this year’s event, many were defiant over the belief that their freedoms were being taken away. Many went anyway, gathering in enclosed indoor spaces, like bars, restaurants, and tattoo parlors, while refusing to wear a mask.
More than 330 coronavirus cases, including one death, are officially tied to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally but they represent just the tip of the iceberg, experts say. That rally may have helped seed the Upper Midwest outbreak, via @BrittSham @bylenasunhttps://t.co/EAOAyXx377
— Anne Rumsey Gearan (@agearan) October 18, 2020
Even though the warning signs were present, and a survey concluded that 60 percent of residents wanted the rally to be postponed, there were companies in South Dakota that faced the possibility of losing their business if the event, which would account for a $2 million loss to the city, didn’t go on as planned. "There absolutely was no right decision,” city council member Terry Keszler said, who acknowledged crowds would've still shown up if a cancellation was announced.
As cases related to the event began to crop up, contact tracing created further complications as some refused to be tested, leading to a tally that wasn't included in the total tied to Sturgis. Kris Ehresmann, director of infectious-disease epidemiology at the Minnesota Department of Health, believes "the web just gets too complicated" when it comes to tracking the various tentacles of the virus.
"This motorcycle rally was and is such a big thing that people come from miles and miles away and they come from right next door. And it’s not reported anywhere who they are, where they live," said Benjamin Aaker, president of the South Dakota State Medical Association, adding, "Contact tracing on something like that is even harder than it is during normal circumstances."
your headlines reviewed...
1. "Silent spread" is not evidence of asymptomatic spread. Its just an opinion statement.
2. Detected Covid in your nose or wherever ... is not evidence of asymptomatic spread. How the hell do you think they tested positive. Just because you are positive does not mean you are infectious.
3. Just more bullshit... a doctor saying bullshit about asymptomatic spread... no proof no tracing.
4. it looks like the study which formed the basis for that headline was a meta study using models... this has more potential to find some asymptomatic spread if you were to review all the studies underneath... but as as I could tell it was just a meta study pushed into statistical modeling.
Discussion
Summary of main findings
The summary proportion of SARS-CoV-2 that is asymptomatic throughout the course of infection was estimated, across all study settings, to be 20% (95% CI 17%–25%, 79 studies), with a prediction interval of 3%–67%. In studies that identified SARS-CoV-2 infection through screening of defined populations, the proportion of asymptomatic infections was 31% (95% CI 26%–37%, 7 studies). In 31 studies reporting on people who are presymptomatic but who go on to develop symptoms, the results were too heterogeneous to combine. The secondary attack rate from asymptomatic infections may be lower than that from symptomatic infections (relative risk 0.35, 95% CI 0.1–1.27). Modelling studies estimated a wide range of the proportion of all SARS-CoV-2 infections that result from transmission from asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals.
1. "Silent spread" is not evidence of asymptomatic spread. Its just an opinion statement.
2. Detected Covid in your nose or wherever ... is not evidence of asymptomatic spread. How the hell do you think they tested positive. Just because you are positive does not mean you are infectious.
3. Just more bullshit... a doctor saying bullshit about asymptomatic spread... no proof no tracing.
4. it looks like the study which formed the basis for that headline was a meta study using models... this has more potential to find some asymptomatic spread if you were to review all the studies underneath... but as as I could tell it was just a meta study pushed into statistical modeling.
Discussion
Summary of main findings
The summary proportion of SARS-CoV-2 that is asymptomatic throughout the course of infection was estimated, across all study settings, to be 20% (95% CI 17%–25%, 79 studies), with a prediction interval of 3%–67%. In studies that identified SARS-CoV-2 infection through screening of defined populations, the proportion of asymptomatic infections was 31% (95% CI 26%–37%, 7 studies). In 31 studies reporting on people who are presymptomatic but who go on to develop symptoms, the results were too heterogeneous to combine. The secondary attack rate from asymptomatic infections may be lower than that from symptomatic infections (relative risk 0.35, 95% CI 0.1–1.27). Modelling studies estimated a wide range of the proportion of all SARS-CoV-2 infections that result from transmission from asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals.
Fauci: 'About 40%-45% of infections are asymptomatic'
https://www.pharmacist.com/article/fauci-about-40-45-infections-are-asymptomatic
Speaking recently at a virtual event arranged by the Society of Critical Care Medicine (SCCM), Anthony Fauci, MD, asserted: "It is now clear that about 40%-45% of [COVID-19] infections are asymptomatic," which he said makes it challenging to conduct contact tracing and other response strategies.
Speaking recently at a virtual event arranged by the Society of Critical Care Medicine (SCCM), Anthony Fauci, MD, asserted: "It is now clear that about 40%-45% of [COVID-19] infections are asymptomatic," which he said makes it challenging to conduct contact tracing and other response strategies. Fauci's plenary lecture was part of SCCM's conference, "COVID-19: What's Next/Preparing for the Second Wave." Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, noted the United States did not shut down mobility in parks, outdoor spaces, and grocery stores to the extent as some European countries did. Regarding a COVID-19 vaccine, he said: "We project that by the end of this year, namely November/December, we will know if we have a safe and effective vaccine and we are cautiously optimistic that we will be successful, based on promising data in the animal model as well as good immunological data that we see from the Phase I and Phase II trials."
1. The CDC made that assumption in some of its modeling of the IFR months ago.
2. How many times have you gone crazy telling us about no reopening until we have testing and contract tracing in place...
How many times have I had to tell you the proper way to do is test the symptomatic where there are clusters because you can't test and trace everyone when so many are asymptomatic.
3. Now you are pushing winter is coming and the second wave...
We warned you of a second wave back during the first wave. I told you that first lockdown was not going to extinguish the virus and it would just come back in the fall. We should should have been out and about in the non winter weather.
2. How many times have you gone crazy telling us about no reopening until we have testing and contract tracing in place...
How many times have I had to tell you the proper way to do is test the symptomatic where there are clusters because you can't test and trace everyone when so many are asymptomatic.
3. Now you are pushing winter is coming and the second wave...
We warned you of a second wave back during the first wave. I told you that first lockdown was not going to extinguish the virus and it would just come back in the fall. We should should have been out and about in the non winter weather.
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What the heck are you mumbling about now?
At this point a good portion of community spread is due to asymptomatic people who do not know that they are infected. They may show symptoms a couple of days later or possibly not at all. This is a proven fact by the medical community.
Testing would show that an asymptomatic person is infected with COVID-19. It is best used in combination with Contact Tracing in the manner that New Zealand, Germany, and South Korea do full contact tracing combined with testing -- stopping community spread by finding both asymptomatic and symptomatic cases.
To re-open with a low prevalent infection rate in a community so that it is safe to open schools, businesses, stores, bars, and restaurants -- it is necessary to properly test and contact trace COVID cases. This is fundamental to the five points of having a lockdown.
Free COVID-19 tests needed to protect Florida’s senior living facilities
https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/20...-floridas-senior-living-facilities-editorial/
Gov. Ron DeSantis made a national splash of his two-pronged strategy to manage the coronavirus. He reopened Florida’s economy with the caveat that the state would faithfully protect its most vulnerable senior citizens. But now Florida has stopped paying for coronavirus tests for staff at assisted living facilities. That’s a pound-foolish approach that doesn’t jibe with the governor’s promises, and he needs to live up to his commitment.
As the Tampa Bay Times' Kirby Wilson reported Friday, the decision to end the free testing has led to confusion and finger-pointing in the state’s long-term care industry. With state funding gone, some smaller facilities are unsure how they will afford the additional cost of testing staff. As Kathryn Moore, the administrator of Bay Oaks Historic Retirement Residence in Miami put it, these facilities were on the front-lines for months in protecting the especially-vulnerable elderly population. But Moore says that providers now feel “completely forgotten” as smaller facilities like hers are being left to absorb the costs.
The hit became apparent last week after Curative, which collects and processes coronavirus tests for thousands of facilities across the state, and which had agreed to cover the costs for a month, notified providers that it would no longer pay the expense. That triggered a predictable dispute over whether private insurers or the state or federal governments should backstop these costs as a last resort.
Who pays — government or private industry — really isn’t the issue. The focus should be on ensuring that all providers have access to free tests. That’s especially true with smaller players in the industry and facilities that may need logistical assistance. Given the pandemic’s effect on the country, this ideally should be funded by the federal government. If Washington can redirect FEMA money to the border, it can find money to pay for tests. If Florida needs to front these resources until Congress passes another COVID-relief bill, so be it.
The governor’s office told the Times on Friday it was reviewing the situation. With these facilities now open to visitors, this is hardly the time to pull back on testing, or to make money the issue instead of public health. The governor needs to step up.
https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/20...-floridas-senior-living-facilities-editorial/
Gov. Ron DeSantis made a national splash of his two-pronged strategy to manage the coronavirus. He reopened Florida’s economy with the caveat that the state would faithfully protect its most vulnerable senior citizens. But now Florida has stopped paying for coronavirus tests for staff at assisted living facilities. That’s a pound-foolish approach that doesn’t jibe with the governor’s promises, and he needs to live up to his commitment.
As the Tampa Bay Times' Kirby Wilson reported Friday, the decision to end the free testing has led to confusion and finger-pointing in the state’s long-term care industry. With state funding gone, some smaller facilities are unsure how they will afford the additional cost of testing staff. As Kathryn Moore, the administrator of Bay Oaks Historic Retirement Residence in Miami put it, these facilities were on the front-lines for months in protecting the especially-vulnerable elderly population. But Moore says that providers now feel “completely forgotten” as smaller facilities like hers are being left to absorb the costs.
The hit became apparent last week after Curative, which collects and processes coronavirus tests for thousands of facilities across the state, and which had agreed to cover the costs for a month, notified providers that it would no longer pay the expense. That triggered a predictable dispute over whether private insurers or the state or federal governments should backstop these costs as a last resort.
Who pays — government or private industry — really isn’t the issue. The focus should be on ensuring that all providers have access to free tests. That’s especially true with smaller players in the industry and facilities that may need logistical assistance. Given the pandemic’s effect on the country, this ideally should be funded by the federal government. If Washington can redirect FEMA money to the border, it can find money to pay for tests. If Florida needs to front these resources until Congress passes another COVID-relief bill, so be it.
The governor’s office told the Times on Friday it was reviewing the situation. With these facilities now open to visitors, this is hardly the time to pull back on testing, or to make money the issue instead of public health. The governor needs to step up.
If you are correct about asymptomatic spread...
and 40 percent of the infected are asymptomatic...
Testing and Tracing is not going to be effective if the RO is as you claim.
That is what Fauci is explaining...
Don't you understand what you post.
How would you be able to have widespread testing and tracing in a city like setting if 40 percent of the people don't even know they are infected and don't know to get themselves tested?
Its common sense.
All your bullshit does not ad up.
Even if you tested every symptomatic person... you would have explosive spread just among the asymptomatic...per your belief system.
Especially, with your belief there is no natural herd immunity
When you put together every thing you argue...
Its turns into a giant pile of illogical bullshit.
and 40 percent of the infected are asymptomatic...
Testing and Tracing is not going to be effective if the RO is as you claim.
That is what Fauci is explaining...
Don't you understand what you post.
How would you be able to have widespread testing and tracing in a city like setting if 40 percent of the people don't even know they are infected and don't know to get themselves tested?
Its common sense.
All your bullshit does not ad up.
Even if you tested every symptomatic person... you would have explosive spread just among the asymptomatic...per your belief system.
Especially, with your belief there is no natural herd immunity
When you put together every thing you argue...
Its turns into a giant pile of illogical bullshit.
Countries that follow proper public health principles including testing and contact tracing have been very successful at reducing and eliminating COVID. Just take a look at New Zealand, Germany, and South Korea. Following these best public health practices will reduce the R rate to below 0.8 in a community.
Note that the U.S. (until COVID showed up) followed a strict process of Testing and Contact Tracing for breakouts of TB, measles and other diseases. These efforts were all very successful and stopped communities from having uncontrolled breakouts of diseases.
Employee of mine got COVID test because his wife was told she was in contact with someone who had COVID.
Employee goes to Labcorp for test.
Labcorp calls employee two days later, tells him that results are on the portal. He logs on, finds POSITIVE result. But name of patient isn't his. Or his wife. Or anyone he knows.
He calls Labcorp and complains. They tell him his test is positive. He says "are you sure? The test on the portal isn't mine." They say they are sure.
His wife gets her results NEGATIVE. Correct name. He calls back again and speaks to someone else. That person says his results are NEGATIVE. Person listed on his portal isn't him. He replies "Yeah, I know that." They said "these mixups happen all the time."
And we need to believe the data.
Employee goes to Labcorp for test.
Labcorp calls employee two days later, tells him that results are on the portal. He logs on, finds POSITIVE result. But name of patient isn't his. Or his wife. Or anyone he knows.
He calls Labcorp and complains. They tell him his test is positive. He says "are you sure? The test on the portal isn't mine." They say they are sure.
His wife gets her results NEGATIVE. Correct name. He calls back again and speaks to someone else. That person says his results are NEGATIVE. Person listed on his portal isn't him. He replies "Yeah, I know that." They said "these mixups happen all the time."
And we need to believe the data.