One must only look at the tulip mania to see how fortunes can be made overnight and equally lost overnight.
I trust more in Dalio being" ignorant" than in the many people I know who bought bitcoins thinking they know everything.
Realizing that you are ignorant is better and safer than not realizing that you are ignorant, while thinking you are the expert.
Smart people know they don't know everything, stupid people always think they know everything.
The fact that BTC still gained 30% is irrelevant. In history many experts warned for bubbles while these bubbles were still growing. In 2017 some people warned for a huge correction long before the BTC reached his top end of 2017. But they were right, BTC dropped 80%. So history proved that a 30% gain can still end in a 80% crash.
Governments only have disadvantgaes with BTC, no advantages.
Some of these disadvantages:
- it can interfere with their money policies
- drugs and crime financial circuits are hidden
- fiscal controls are more difficult
- partial anonimity makes it more difficult to catch illegal transactions
- ...