DACA - anyone have a non-stupid prediction of what Trump will decide?

[AAAintheBeltway]

Quite so.

Everyone is predicting that this all going to be a big showdown between the moderate conservatives and the far right in congress. Not so. The far right will object bigly but- unlike Crockcare- no will try to cater to them. There are many dems in states that voted for trump who are up for re-election and can be had. Good luck to them going to their lefty constituents and saying "I flushed the dreamers down the drain because trump wanted more money for the wall than I was willing to support and I know that's what y'all would have wanted."

I predict chaos for the republican party if they did pass DACA using democrat votes. Chaos, because the democrats will expect payment for their help. And chaos, because republican voters will be livid.

The Hastert Rule was designed to avoid this kind of situation.

I am disappointed that Trump is trying to have it both ways on DACA. No reason at all to renew any illegal registrations. Using the list to round them up does raise some interesting Constitutional issues, since the government enticed them to register in the first place.

Trump will have ended up doing what Obama could not do, convince a republican congress to give amnesty to illegal immigrants. Any way you slice it, this is not what his base was expecting and the alt right and immigration sites will fry him over it. Congress may pass something way too lenient and then what happens? Will he risk Princess's tears with a veto?

This betrayal has the side effect of greatly raising the stakes in the wall battle. Failure is just not an option on getting the wall now if he expects reelection.

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

I'm curious who came up with this policy? One thing Trump knows is how to drive a bargain and get something out of a deal. What did he get out of this, other than alienating his only real supporters?

 

[gwb-trading]

Republicans Tell Democrats: 'We'll Give you DACA if You Fund Trump's Border Wall'
https://www.yahoo.com/news/republicans-tell-democrats-apos-apos-104041960.html

Senior Congressional Republicans are willing to work with Democrats to keep a program allowing young people who came to America illegally with their parents to stay in the U.S. But Democrats will in return have to give President Donald Trump funding for his border wall.

Early Tuesday Attorney General Jeff Sessions is expected to announce an end to the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program that grants two-year U.S. work permits to 800,000 young illegal immigrants known as “Dreamers.”

President Trump said last Friday: “We think the Dreamers are terrific,” but by Sunday he decided to cancel the program with a six month grace period.

Ending the program means that young undocumented immigrants—nearly half of whom came to the U.S. before the age of six—could be deported.

A number of Senior House Republican sources told Politico Monday that they are willing to make the DACA program law, but only in exchange for initial funding in 2018 for Trump’s plan to build a border wall.

The DACA program could be made law through the bipartisan Dream Act already before Congress.

In July the House approved $1.6 billion in spending to improve and expand the wall on the U.S.-Mexico border in the 2018 budget. Exactly $38 million of that money would be set aside for future wall planning.

During the 2016 campaign Trump repeatedly said Mexico would pay for a concrete barrier he imagined stretching from one end of the border to another. The cost was estimated to be more than $20 billion. Administration officials, however, have said a concrete barrier is impractical and a virtual wall can be achieved through sensor and monitoring technology.

(more at above url)

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

I predict chaos for the republican party if they did pass DACA using democrat votes. Chaos, because the democrats will expect payment for their help. And chaos, because republican voters will be livid.

The Hastert Rule was designed to avoid this kind of situation.

I am disappointed that Trump is trying to have it both ways on DACA. No reason at all to renew any illegal registrations. Using the list to round them up does raise some interesting Constitutional issues, since the government enticed them to register in the first place.

Trump will have ended up doing what Obama could not do, convince a republican congress to give amnesty to illegal immigrants. Any way you slice it, this is not what his base was expecting and the alt right and immigration sites will fry him over it. Congress may pass something way too lenient and then what happens? Will he risk Princess's tears with a veto?

This betrayal has the side effect of greatly raising the stakes in the wall battle. Failure is just not an option on getting the wall now if he expects reelection.

Without disagreeing with any of that because those factors are all at play, it is also true that if the DACA issue gets settled legislatively then it removes the major sword and rallying cry that the dems are planning on using in the midterms and in 2020. The dems most definitely are not wanting to run against a president and a party that led a process that resulted in a long term resolution for the daca kids. Nor are they interested in campaigning and having to say that it was not resolved because they voted against the daca resolution because of some other bullfeathers provision in the bill. So yeh, Trump be having problems with his base but he also be giving the dems plenty of problems with theirs- and then bernie supporters are squeezing them from the left if they cooperate with Trump and Pelosi is one or two steps from the forcible exit door.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

I see that Sen. Dick Durbin a democrat came out and emphatically flat-footed stated that he absolutely will not support a bill with a wall in it. Or a full coast to coast wall anyway. A "non-starter" as he put it.

Be interesting though. The minute some kind of bill is put together both the dems and pubs will be running ads in his state announcing that Durbin has said he will not support the bill that allows the daca kids to stay here.

Yep. It's easy to be ballsy today Dick. We will check back later and see how it's going. I suspect your comments will be a little more finely tuned as we go forward.

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

I see that Sen. Dick Durbin a democrat came out and emphatically flat-footed stated that he absolutely will not support a bill with a wall in it. Or a full coast to coast wall anyway. A "non-starter" as he put it.

Be interesting though. The minute some kind of bill is put together both the dems and pubs will be running ads in his state announcing that Durbin has said he will not support the bill that allows the daca kids to stay here.

Yep. It's easy to be ballsy today Dick. We will check back later and see how it's going. I suspect your comments will be a little more finely tuned as we go forward.

Yes, only republicans are so stupid they give away their concessions preemptively. Now dems consider full retention and permanent expansion of DACA as a given. That is the floor for their demands.

They are about to score a huge win over the idiot republicans. Obama failed for eight years to get some version of DACA through congress. Now ryan et al can't wait to pass it and Trump seems ok with that. So the dems get to go their base and say we kicked ass, which will be true. The rep's will have permanently alienated a crucial part of theirs, so it is won-win for the dems. It will be interesting to see if talk radio and Tucker try to get the base riled up over this. It wouldn't take much to do so. Trump promised to end DCA, not phase it out over several years, and certainly not try to get it passed through congress.

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

it is also true that if the DACA issue gets settled legislatively then it removes the major sword and rallying cry that the dems are planning on using in the midterms and in 2020. The dems most definitely are not wanting to run against a president and a party that led a process that resulted in a long term resolution for the daca kids.

That is accurate only if DACA is popular with voters. It is popular with dems and the dems will be able to say that scored a big win for their base. A substantial percentage of Trump's base will see it not as an accomplishment but instead as a brazen betrayal, the sort of bait-and-switch crap the McConnell/Ryan crowd are known for. And they'd be right.

 

[jem]

I wonder if Trump Ryan and McConnell have already worked this out.
This could be typical kabuki.

Ryan will pass saying the Senate will fix.
McConnell will say they will never go for it.
Then they have to go for it because they fear a debt ceiling or a democrat shut down or some other contrived excuse.

Then tell us they will do what they promised next budget or in 10 years.

 

[TreeFrogTrader]

Trump promised to end DCA, not phase it out over several years, and certainly not try to get it passed through congress.

True but if his base is just figuring out he flipped on this after the election then they are slow in picking up the cues and clues.

By the end of the first week in december Trump was talking like this:

“We’re going to work something out that’s going to make people happy and proud,” Mr. Trump told Time magazine. “They got brought here at a very young age, they’ve worked here, they’ve gone to school here. Some were good students. Some have wonderful jobs. And they’re in never-never land because they don’t know what’s going to happen.”

Where the hell did people think he was headed with that? When he said that he was going to work something out for the dreamers that would make people proud and happy did his base think that meant he was going to give them all a gift certificate for a Happy Meal at McDonalds before he deported them? I agree that he flipped from the campaign but have always seen the signs. If his base is just figuring it out then some of them are slow moving puppies.

 

[AAAintheBeltway]

True but if his base is just figuring out he flipped on this after the election then they are slow in picking up the cues and clues.

You're right but he also promised to end it. Letting it wind down over a period of years and colluding with congress to pass an amnesty is going to infuriate his base.

The players are now acting out their assigned roles. The DACA supporters are all crying about how cruel it is. Secretly they couldn't be happier, but they are trying to retain leverage for the inevitable amnesty bill.

Sending Sessions out to rep it was lame. He hoped to use Sessions' hard line rep on immigration to make it look tough. Anyone who knows how things work can see it is a scam.