Crypto Macro Trends for 2022
- Thread starter johnarb
- Start date
You're saying this based on emotions and not real data
Ethereum is dead. Ethereum maxis are depressed on Twitter and they have no solution to the current situation of Solana eating their lunch
I do not have an emotional attachment to which is the winner of the smart contract blockchain race, whether it's Ethereum, Solana, Injective, Fantom or something else,
but there are a lot of profits to be made actively trading crypto assets if Ethereum loses out to Solana, so yea, I'm rooting for Solana to continue fucking the shit out of Ethereum. Let the good times roll
I'm a Bitcoiner, most of our life savings and net worth is on bitcoin, enough said on that
Word of advise, do not be an ostrich burying your head in the sand. Mark my words, your crypto portfolio value will continue to get decimated
You have chosen to allocate too much to Ethereum NFT's which are very illiquid and as the Ethereum ecosystem continue to decline against Solana and others, this will trap you even more. Sunk cost fallacy
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I did over 20 Solana onchain transactions within the past 24 hours trading and yield farming Solana meme coins, and Solana tx fees cost me less than $1. If I did that on Ethereum, easily over $700 of Eth fees
Understand what I'm saying. Or don't and keep ignoring the facts. Knowing you, Daal, you will choose the latter. Cheerios
The last bull market cycle was wild!
I had 6-figure $ allocations in Bnb ecosystem, Ethereum, Fantom, my biggest winners were from the Ethereum ecosystem but also the biggest loser, BAYC nft
Is your question how did it work out if I came out ahead on my Bnb "investments"? Yes, I very much did. I've posted winners and losers
I knew you'd refuse to look at quantitative data. It's your personality, you'd rather be right and go down with the ship
Look back a few posts on the Bitcoin maxi breakdown of the Ethereum situation, EIP implementation and the Merge impacts on fees and the Ethereum quest to be ultrasound money with no regard to the price of Eth going up resulting in even higher $ fees equivalence for tx costs. He has no Solana bias
Sounds like cope
Hey, you remember our heated exchange you kept telling me over and over and over that I will ride the bull market cycle to the bear market cycle 80% drawdown?
I TOLD YOU SO that I would not
I have not worked in 3 years because I knew to manage my risks and cashed out enough to ride out the bear market cycle
Did you ride the drawdown bear market? how much down is your crypto portfolio m2m? It must be very difficult to calculate with illiquid assets?
This year should have been an awesome recovery for your crypto portfolio but it sounds like your allocation to Eth and NFT's are hurting you
Just remember, you accuse others of something that has not happened and you fell into the trap of the bull market fomo and price anchors to the ath price
You should have managed your risks, better
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John, you’re a huge crypto bull, so a lot of your views are shifted pretty far away from the aggregate distribution of outcomes that the market is pricing for crypto.
And free markets are great because you can trade those views and earn a lot of money if you end up having a more accurate view of the future than the aggregate market.
I think crypto has a lot of potential, it’s still relatively new technology, and it has qualities that make it attractive to retails, and those things may very well be discounted too much at current prices. I have a lot of exposure to crypto.
However your take on SOL vs. ETH is really far out there. It’s flat out incorrect to state things like ETH is dying and SOL is eating its lunch. More power to you if you are bullish on the SOL/ETH spread, but be wary of getting trapped in an echo chamber.
Crypto market cap is big enough at this point that you need real, sustained, rational flow to push and keep prices higher. And you need to be able to separate that from retail hype narratives that smart traders can accumulate and distribute against. I say this as someone who got that wrong last cycle and lost a huge amount of money.
At the end of the day we’re just spitballing on a forum. It would be amazing if somehow there was a prop bet system where users could actually bet their views against each other, even if it was with fake forum currency. So these discussions would matter just a bit more.
I’d fade you at size on a SOL mcap > ETH mcap binary struck at any duration if there was a market for it. All said it’s good to see you trading your views IRL. Good luck trading crypto in ‘24 to you and Merry Christmas!
And free markets are great because you can trade those views and earn a lot of money if you end up having a more accurate view of the future than the aggregate market.
I think crypto has a lot of potential, it’s still relatively new technology, and it has qualities that make it attractive to retails, and those things may very well be discounted too much at current prices. I have a lot of exposure to crypto.
However your take on SOL vs. ETH is really far out there. It’s flat out incorrect to state things like ETH is dying and SOL is eating its lunch. More power to you if you are bullish on the SOL/ETH spread, but be wary of getting trapped in an echo chamber.
Crypto market cap is big enough at this point that you need real, sustained, rational flow to push and keep prices higher. And you need to be able to separate that from retail hype narratives that smart traders can accumulate and distribute against. I say this as someone who got that wrong last cycle and lost a huge amount of money.
At the end of the day we’re just spitballing on a forum. It would be amazing if somehow there was a prop bet system where users could actually bet their views against each other, even if it was with fake forum currency. So these discussions would matter just a bit more.
I’d fade you at size on a SOL mcap > ETH mcap binary struck at any duration if there was a market for it. All said it’s good to see you trading your views IRL. Good luck trading crypto in ‘24 to you and Merry Christmas!
I've been hearing the old ETH-Killer propaganda story ever since the days of ETH-Classic.
But, THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT? (here we go again)
But, THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT? (here we go again)
You're correct that it's hyperbole to say Eth is dying, but Sol is currently feasting and the food is coming mostly from Eth, Layer 1 strictly speaking
Smart contract is used mainly for dex/swaps and perps, nft's, crypto blockchain gaming, decentralized AI, borrow/lend collateralized crypto assets market places
Elite Trader forum is all about profiting from being right
Market is forward-looking
Ethereum has the network effect, it's like the Facebook of smart contract, but unlike FB, it cannot acquire every major threat, i.e. Instagram/Whatsapp
Let's state the obvious, Ethereum and its L2's are #1 in TVL on all the categories above, but as I'm a witness, dex swaps, I'm using Orca with yield farming opportunities in the hundreds of % for 30 days not year and the tx fees are cheap, why would I or anyone use Ethereum L1?
(a bit disclosure, these are concentrated Liquidity pools, just closed out my yield farm that got out of range, so it takes active management, but the payoff is very much worth it)
meme coins trading are a vampire attack to get TVL into the Solana ecosystem
dex perps are on the Eth L2's, so are collateralized crypto assets market places Ethereum and L2's, AAVE, Makerdao, compound, Curve
Solana starting out with Marginfi, I'm still looking for a good perps on Solana, but I have not looked hard enough,
I heard NFT's are doing well on Solana, but I'm not a participant in that
Crypto gaming is still new, so is AI, but Eth and L2's have a good start
I keep mentioning Ethereum L2's and that's a plus for Ethereum but could we see a time when L2's becomes a trojan horse?
Bridges straight from L2's to Solana or other L1's could end up marginalizing the need or value of Eth as there will be minimal demand
So, I said a lot of stuff but the tl;dr is this, borrowing some concept from Sassal thread on Twitter, the more the Eth NGU is a laggard against other L1's, the higher the chances of the Eth TVL and its dominance on the smart contract sectors to migrate to Solana if the Solana NGU keeps going
It's a reflexive loop. NGU drives the narratives and all the crypto participants
I would not have the opportunities for trading and yield farming meme coins on Orca if the Sol price wasn't doing as well
I also want to reiterate that I'm not a Solana maxi, if the momentum fizzles out, it's ok, I'll move on to the next opportunities even if it's on Ethereum as I did early in the year with Pepe, and others
I'm a Bitcoiner, that's the hill I will die on
There's a Twitter post on Injective somewhat tounge-in-cheek, but enough stuff to think about, VC's , market makers, manipulation to drive the price up. I can't find it now, but same things can be applied to Sol
Apologies if I attacked Ethereum too much on my last few posts
I am bitter at the Eth tx costs, $20 is more than a day's wage for most people where I'm at so I try to stay away from Eth L1 unless I really have to
I'll try to keep my mouth shut on Ethereum, this is a big mistake for me putting out negative stuff
I have a personal policy not to malign any crypto as we're all part of the crypto ecosystem and the goal is to suck up the value from the fiat world
Merry Christmas and best wishes on your crypto investments especially in 2024, the year of the Dragon!
Just an update-disclosure, have no yield farm active on Solana meme coins and have swapped most of the meme coins to Sol for now
It's very late here, and want to have a smaller risk before going to bed. analoS meme coin was going down, too, so another reason to lighten up
I could not find the original tweet from @Miyaxbt, he might have deleted it, but someone made a copy of the content
Replace Injective $Inj with Solana $Sol
This is a message to all $INJ holders
Trending
6:20 PM・Dec 15, 2023
Ubaid Ansari
You are being MANIPULATED and LIED to.
First of all: No I'm not "FUDing" Injective, I've been holding $INJ and publicly telling people to buy since we were at $2.
I'm up 15x with INJ.
Injective has always been a Market Maker & VC play.
The ONLY reason it's pumping right now is because Market Makers are artificially creating high spot buying pressure.
Remember a few days ago when we had a $BTC flash-crash and Injective wasn't affected? (x.com/MiyaXBT/status…)
All of the Buying Pressure came from Market Makers.
If you don't believe me look at the CEX Orderbook data from 2:10 PM AM - 2:52 AM UTC.
After Market Makers created this manipulated image of being the strong safe haven with all the buying pressure which makes an ATH after the largest liquidity flash in 2 years, they twapped out of it again, between 4:12 AM UTC - 8:14 AM UTC.
Market Makers only have two tasks:
(1) Trap Retail Investors
(2) Coordinated Sell-Offs
With Injective it's pretty funny, considering that the chain isn't being used at all.
Look how horrible the TVL is.
$11M TVL compared to $3B FDV!
I knew this pump would happen, because ALL of the VC insider unlocks were done during the deepest bear market. What VC wants to dump at close to a loss at $1 range?
This is exactly why i invested in at $2.
But now it's time to face realism and to also explain to retail investors what's truly happening behind the scenes.
Planned Manipulation.
Imagine you're an influencer with A LOT OF followers. How much do you think Market Makers & Injective would pay you if you spread (bullish) manipulative information about Injective?
How much of the insider supply would they send to you with a vesting period?
I'm not accusing anybody here.
The new Market Making Play-Book 2024 goes at follows:
- Social Engineering and Manipulation
- Security Manipulation and Insider Trade
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So what is the Injective Playbook for 2024 Q1:
Coordinated Ecosystem Airdrops. Artificially boost the TVL higher.
AND NOW THIS IS IMPORTANT:
Did you ever notice you have to stake in order to qualify for airdrops?
You keep retail investors from selling their tokens in order to have a loooot of free time to coordinately DUMP on retail.
It's truly fascinating. The plan is working and you are ALL FALLING FOR IT.
BUT let me get a few thing clear:
- I think Injective's tech is really interesting, inEVM could have been really big. This post is no disrespect to the developers working on Injective.
- This is not intended to be disrespectful to any influencer / Market Maker. You did an OUTSTANDING job. One of a kind.
- I still hold 80% of my position and i'm certain it will go higher until February.
$50 - $100 seems inevitable.
This is just an insight-report into what's most likely happening behind the scenes. I am not trading technology or fair valuations, i'm trading attention and Market Makers, thus i am confident in my large position size.
No i wouldn't sell right now, nfa.
#InjectiveProtocol $INJ