Good analysis.I was curious what was going on there(SOL/ETH).
Merry Christmas to you and yours too mate! And to the rest of the Bro's!
2024.LFG!!!
P.S:JA,im still backing you for BTC 50k on 31/12/23 for the call of the decade!! hahaha
Crypto Macro Trends for 2022
- Thread starter johnarb
- Start date
Good analysis.I was curious what was going on there(SOL/ETH).
Merry Christmas to you and yours too mate! And to the rest of the Bro's!
2024.LFG!!!
P.S:JA,im still backing you for BTC 50k on 31/12/23 for the call of the decade!! hahaha
I wish. The plan was always to average in... but sadly, when it was around the $20 lows for months, I didn't because all I kept reading about what how it was an FTX coin and all that other FUD. It is a huge ecosystem, so I knew that, but I didn't add much. My original average price was $197, and I did buy some at $30 and $50, but not enough to make a huge dent. Maybe my average is around $170 right now... not sure.
I am worried that there will be a huge pullback if it hits Arthur's target since he probably has a shit ton to sell, but at the same time, if it kept going up after FTX was selling, maybe there is huge demand. And of course, as you point out now, it could very well take over ETH. So I'm still holding.
My big fear is a crash in 2024, which I think it primed for the economy, and that liquidity suck will impact crypto again. So I want to be prepared to get out and not ride it down again.
There are many opportunities that we will miss and I'm with you on missing out on Solana and many more the past 3 months
@semperfrosty was asking me on another thread which altcoin I would hold but at the time (Oct 1, 2023) I was holding Rune and TRB (which was sold after a few days, but kept Rune),
Price of Sol was $21, price of Sol now, $108
I am holding $Sol now part of yield farms but only started 2 weeks ago ($Sol @ 65sh) and small position, only increased this week
Nah, Arthur ain't holding that much. Solana 24-hour trading volume is $3.8 Billion. Arthur can get out in a day if he wants to get out, but he's smart, If Solana flips Ethereum, an easy 10x for Solana from this current price level
Solana is Sam's coin, that evil son of a bitch is who we have to worry about, holding too much of the Solana coins but Sam cannot sell right now
Maybe in 100 years or so, he will dump and crash Solana price. Along with his cohorts that are also in jail
Your fear is not rational. 2024 is Presidential election year, the Fed will be printing $$$ and boost the economy. The Fed already talking about rate cuts in March. Other global central banks already loosening
The worldwide money printers are warming up big time. Fuck inflation, 2024 is going to be a massive release of liquidity
2024 is going to be a lot of fun, just in time for Bitcoin halving and bull market 4-year cycle. lfg!!!!
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Sol had its chance and failed to be the killer it claimed to be.
You are swapping out 'security' for a boost in 'speed'... Not exactly the smartest thing to do in the world of finance...
Not only did it lose its advantage in 'staking', but in the near horizon it will have to compete with Ethereum running 64 shards at a time.
You are swapping out 'security' for a boost in 'speed'... Not exactly the smartest thing to do in the world of finance...
Not only did it lose its advantage in 'staking', but in the near horizon it will have to compete with Ethereum running 64 shards at a time.
Honest question, do you use the Ethereum ecosystem, blockchain and smart contracts?
Your past tense is in conflict of the present. The game is not over and it's accelerating
To be honest... I used to code contracts using solidity.
To be fair, I have very little time these days for coding (or other joys in life), so I mostly stake my Ether and collect my payouts.
I do not know if that actually answered my question
Ethereum blockchain smart contract usage that I'm referring to, sending (transfer) of Erc-20 tokens, trading (swaps) on dex, purchase of nft's from market places, (on-chain transactions), defi staking (deposits and withdrawals) on crypto platforms
These actions can cost upwards of $4-50 of Eth each sometimes higher during Ethereum busy times. I did some simple transfers recently and paid over $8 of Eth for tx fees
On Solana, they cost less than 50 cents, even much lower on simple transactions
I wish you actually use the Ethereum blockchain so you'll understand, instead of saying you code on Solidity as if that explains anything
My god... it already hit $118 even... at this rate, I will be back to break even before the year end!
There is also this post I read today about more Solana FUD.... I'm too lazy to understand the analysis with regards to fees and if Solana is doomed to fail...
I don't want to hold it long term, since I'm much more comfortable I think on a leveraged BTC position, but if its gonna hit $200, I'd happily wait for the BE exit along with some profits, or ride it higher if it really is gonna flip ETH, but I would absolutely have a stop loss this time.
One of the things I like about that CTO Larson guy I mentioned before is his analysis about "HODL sucks"... and its true. No need to go through an 80% drawdown, and certainly not with a coin that may never come back.
Actually, I meant it in the opposite way... LOL... I know for example that Mike Alfred is super bullish, and I also know that in general, the idea is liquidity is gonna be pumped to the moon. But I just can't shake this feeling of first a major dump. I of course want to be data dependant and simply trade off the charts, and right now charts are all looking good, but at the same time, you have companies like FED Ex with poor guidance, the BTFP program supposedly ending in March which allowed banks to unload highly devalued bonds, major world conflicts, and the list goes on.
I am perhaps not psychologically build to make a shit ton of money, but I just don't see how they are gonna take a system that is falling apart and pump it up again with trillions of borrowed dollars, and expect everyone to play along and pretend this won't cause major problems.... AGAIN! So many treasuries need to be rolled over at higher interest rates, and even the 3 cuts they talked about isn't exactly going to change much. $2 Trillion of deficits are already needed just to keep it going now, during peace time, and supposedly without a recession. Can they really borrow 3, 4, 5 Trillion when shit gets bad and everyone will believe again that this is just fine? At some point, it just doesn't work.
So in the back of my head, I do think that as the crypto crowd is getting excited about liquidity to the moon, I can see this like launching fireworks, which fail to actually take off, and instead just explode on the ground causing a catastrophe!
When a 30-40% correction in a bull market is expected, nobody will get scared when this happens, but then it might not go back up, and before you even get scared, its actually down 50 and 60% before we call it a bear market again. Then its of course too late to wish you took profits when you could have.
Oh.. and I also have the smallest position in the BTC miners, and its amazing how MARA for example has already doubled, and IREN and RIOT are also doing well. Its amazing to see how BTC going to ATH isn't even a 100% move anymore, but these miners going to their ATH is in many cases 300-400%.
Without taking into account the number of Solana onchain transactions for the whole month, let's just go with this $100M/month as gospel
It's NOTHING
Sol price is over $100 rn, but let's just round it down to $100, that's only 1 million Sol tokens per month. NOTHING BURGER
That's 12M Sol tokens /yr, current circulating supply is over 400M, it will take over 30 years to double from these tx fees subsidization
But the crypto bros are doing millions of transactions per month, people like me who does over 100 transactions and pay less than $5 on Solana if I were to do that on Ethereum, it will be hundreds maybe even thousands in Eth tx fees
tl;dr $100M in subsidies through inflation is nothing
Bitcoin is a monetary inflation hedge, a fiat debasement hedge, it goes up when they print more since it's a scarce asset unlike fiat currencies that inflate to infinity
The best thing if you owe a lot of money, like $34 Trillion is high inflation. Pay the debt with printed $, debased fiat currency, lower value in the future
They just have to obfuscate the whole process so the whole world doesn't say fuck it, the $ is worthless, and lose the global reserve currency status
Bitcoin is the escape from the fiat debt-based slavery monetary system
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