Not a good day. It started ok, position value went up to $83k, but then MSTR and pretty much most of the bitcoin-related stocks, bitcoin miners, i.e. Mara, and Coinbase sold off
I read a tweet it's because funds are realizing the profits (closing them out for the books)
Update on the MSTR calls position expiration 1/19/2024
*** There is no financial advice here, only for entertainment purposes ***
The call options position hit over 6-figures ($105k) in the early session last night (Asia time), but stock market was weak and MSTR did not close at the high
There's a trading philosophy on when to close a winning trade, and something to the effect that if I did not have a position today, would I put $100k into MSTR calls that are going to expire in 2 1/2 weeks?
The answer is no, even if I give excuses to stay on the trade and capture the upside(?) volatility of post spot btc etf approval
The position is much longer than 1 year and taxes will be due next year, anyway...
I will be looking to close the position today.... This position was worth $2.3k about 3 months ago, it's up 5000%, even as I believe it will go higher, I'm not doing my job of managing the risks
And I plan to open a new trade for July expiration, higher wotm strike prices, hopefully the new MSTR position will be at a risk capital cost that will allow me realize some $
Analogy would be selling a house in SF, to buy a smaller, cheaper house in the suburbs, put some cash in the bank
Some target prices... if btc hits $100k, post halving, post etf approval, before July expiration, then imho, MSTR hits over $2k/share, based on their btc asset holdings value ++EV (enterprise value)
The position on this thread was opened during the start of the crypto bear market and it was a sit-and-sit position
The July 2024 MSTR call position is during a crypto bull market and I foresee more trading activity, possibly closing and opening (trading) for a higher strike/later expiration... when the time comes, if the MSTR price moves in my direction
nfa
And everyone is now expecting a very good 2024, but I'm all loaded up. So either I finally win for a change and this cycle repeats as expected, or my bad luck is gonna kill this rally.
