Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

[johnarb]

New MSTR calls options position - risk capital $40k

Down 75% $30k m2m.... but got lots of time on this trade

Looking ahead, if bitcoin can get above $100k within 6 months, I believe this MSTR calls options position will be worth a few hundred thousand $

Just need the bitcoin spot etf's to start getting strong inflows to absorb the gbtc selling, which might take months

 

[Sprout]

 

[johnarb]

Down 75% $30k m2m.... but got lots of time on this trade

I do not have any stocks or other equities, but I have an options call position on MSTR which is currently down m2m about 85% in 2 weeks, but still have plenty of time, 6 months to expiration

The previous position had a range of $2.3k (lowest) to $$118k (highest) in about 18 months time (5,000%)

If I'm correct, this current options position could go from $6.5k (lowest) to $1M (highest) in 1/3rd of the time, 6 months (15,000%)

3 times bigger move in 1/3rd the time, sound doable

That would be wild, lol, putting it on here coz no one would believe it if it happens when bitcoin goes to $100k within 6 months and the second order effect on the MSTR share price

 

[johnarb]

The previous position had a range of $2.3k (lowest) to $$118k (highest) in about 18 months time (5,000%)

If I'm correct, this current options position could go from $6.5k (lowest) to $1M (highest) in 1/3rd of the time, 6 months (15,000%)

3 times bigger move in 1/3rd the time, sound doable

Just an update on this MSTR call options position... the m2m price of the position went from ~$8k to $56k in 3 trading sessions and no longer at a loss of 80% but currently in profits m2m

The goal to $1M is less than 2000% and still plenty of time

 

[The_Krakenite]

I'll pass. The time to buy calls was yesterday, today it's priced in

Loaded up on 100 CALLs for Bitcoin ETFs and 20 more on HIVE last year. Unfortunately, I backed the wrong horse (so far) with the miner. Still lots of time though for him to catch up in the race.

On the short end, I've been trying to sell covered CALLs on BitFarms, but can't get fills at where I want. Not the end of the world for me though. I refuse to sell contracts on my equities for the cheap.

Good luck with MSTR. I'm still holding onto my short-put and will decide near the end of April (tax time) on if I should close out or not.

 

[Sprout]

I'll pass. The time to buy calls was yesterday, today it's priced in

Loaded up on 100 CALLs for Bitcoin ETFs and 20 more on HIVE last year. Unfortunately, I backed the wrong horse (so far) with the miner. Still lots of time though for him to catch up in the race.

On the short end, I've been trying to sell covered CALLs on BitFarms, but can't get fills at where I want. Not the end of the world for me though. I refuse to sell contracts on my equities for the cheap.

Good luck with MSTR. I'm still holding onto my short-put and will decide near the end of April (tax time) on if I should close out or not.

Miners are gonna do great when nft grifters start going crazy on ordinals.

 

[johnarb]

The previous position had a range of $2.3k (lowest) to $$118k (highest) in about 18 months time (5,000%)

If I'm correct, this current options position could go from $6.5k (lowest) to $1M (highest) in 1/3rd of the time, 6 months (15,000%)

3 times bigger move in 1/3rd the time, sound doable

A milestone update on the MSTR calls options position, target of 15,000% move within 6 months from low to high m2m value of the position

[as an aside, 8 days ago, on earnings day, MSTR was down big and reversed to positive for the trading session, I might have seen the position was worth less than $6,000 briefly, but anyways, position move has been attributed to the last 6-7 trading sessions]

We're halfway.... only 1250% move to hitting $1M m2m value for the position and still over 5 months left to expiration

 

[semperfrosty]

A milestone update on the MSTR calls options position, target of 15,000% move within 6 months from low to high m2m value of the position

[as an aside, 8 days ago, on earnings day, MSTR was down big and reversed to positive for the trading session, I might have seen the position was worth less than $6,000 briefly, but anyways, position move has been attributed to the last 6-7 trading sessions]

We're halfway.... only 1250% move to hitting $1M m2m value for the position and still over 5 months left to expiration


View attachment 333950

Awesome!

 

[The_Krakenite]

I made a minor miscalculation with MSTR. Something I had been debating on before hand actually.

My original plan was to close out any short-PUTs on MSTR as soon as any ETFs showed up in the US. I (correctly) figured many would sell out of MSTR and instead feel safer in an institution that can't be liquidated.

However, a key reason I didn't do so, is that a valid point was made that Saylor does not charge MER fees, while every fund does. Though (IIRC), some users are getting temporary wavers on FEEs for a short while.

 

[johnarb]

I made a minor miscalculation with MSTR. Something I had been debating on before hand actually.

My original plan was to close out any short-PUTs on MSTR as soon as any ETFs showed up in the US. I (correctly) figured many would sell out of MSTR and instead feel safer in an institution that can't be liquidated.

However, a key reason I didn't do so, is that a valid point was made that Saylor does not charge MER fees, while every fund does. Though (IIRC), some users are getting temporary wavers on FEEs for a short while.

MSTR is a leverage play on bitcoin

it utilizes the company's operating profits/FCF, ability to issue debt-convertibles and ability to issue more shares to acquire more bitcoins

MSTR is a mature company, something to ponder, they were making $50M/yr in profits before Bitcoin, now, they have $4B of unrealized profits on their bitcoin holdings. This would have taken them ~80 years of operations (no growth, remember mature)

Every time bitcoin goes up by $26xx, MSTR earns $1B in unrealized profits or 10 years of their old business operating income

My numbers could be off, just going by memory on what I read here and there

MSTR announced it is now a Bitcoin Development company similar to Petroleum development company, or something like that