Finally got around to reading this article.
So first, I highly doubt one key assumption.... "Coins exist on exchange for one reason, and one reason only — leverage gambling or simply selling. It is assumed that all two million coins on the top-12 exchanges are available for immediate sale, and can mostly be bought by stealth with no slippage (see next assumption)."
As you know, I struggled with this for months. To assume that 2 million coins are available for sale simply because they are on exchanges is absurd. It could simply be that these people are scared to hold their own keys. Maybe a $1k allocation to bitcoin doesn't warrant a $100 to $200 wallet. Coins sitting on an exchange cannot be assumed to be there for a quick sell.
I think the general message of the article is spot on, but figuring out how each week will play out is like going up the difficulty scale in trying to calculate a "vanity" address for your wallet. Perhaps it only takes a few days of calculations to come up with an address that starts with bc1john***, but incredibly harder to find an address that start with bc1johnarb***. (I saw this calculation before but don't remember the exact numbers)
But the point of an accelerated rise is spot on and what I think about constantly. Yes, we will have people who sell when they double their money, or maybe hit a 5x. But when bitcoin gets going, it means everything else is falling apart, so why will anyone choose to go back to fiat unless its to purchase something like property perhaps, that they actually need? I fully believe that bitcoin will eclipse the market cap of gold, and eventually real estate. RE has lots of frictions selling, and never mind the cost of upkeep, etc. It only made sense during low interest rate environments, and even though a 5x did happen in the past decade or so in some places, I doubt we will see another 5x going forward. RE only makes sense for cash flow positive properties, and those are very difficult to find now.
So I assume that any further selling, once some level of critical mass is achieved, will simply be not because you are taking profits, but because you are buying something you need. Bitcoin will come out as the superior asset to hold, and when this idea gets entrenched, where will the price be? There is 900 trillion out there in total total asset value. Just 1% of this right now means a bitcoin price over 10 times higher than today. Its simply mind boggling that the price isn't higher, and I would exchange every last dollar today if I wasn't worried that we might see cheaper prices when the economy falls apart in the part. An initial wave of deflation before the printing goes into high gear is I think the most likely scenario, so I'm hoping for sub 20k again on the bitcoin price. I hardly got any at 16k and would love another chance.
So, wrt the article, I really like the idea of an army of Bitcoiners that are just stacking and stacking sats and putting them away in cold storage, 100k here, 1m there, 10m here, 1 whole bitcoin there when a financial windfall comes
In the same way a religious person does tithe to the church, not expecting any rewards in the short term, but way out in the future and in the case of religion, after the life on earth
And yes, I agree with you that not all bitcoins on exchanges are available for purchase, as I personally have bitcoins on exchanges that are only there for storage
When I first understood the value of Bitcoin, I was frustrated just like you, why is this thing so cheap, and not worth $10k each bitcoin
I started buying bitcoin at $100 in 2013, it even dipped within the 2 weeks and then had a nice bull market it went to over $1200, but then bear market came and it crashed all the way to $150 over the course of 3 years erasing any paper profits I had
I was telling everyone, friends and family how great Bitcoin is, like a Swiss bank account, but no need to sign up, it's available 24/7, can be accessed anywhere in the world, can transfer to anyone in the world
And then today, many people can explain the value of decentralized, censorship-resistant, that cannot be confiscated money
We have Greg Foss who has 30 years of experience in the credit markets explaining this is going to be a global reserve asset and should be worth $2M in today's money, or Michael Saylor who sees Bitcoin as digital property, digital scarce asset backed by the most powerful computing network that has ever existed
It sucks that bitcoin is only $25k right now, but given all the shit that happened in the past 2 years, FTX collapse, BlockFi, Voyager, Celsius, Genesis, Gemini Earn, and a bunch of others going insolvent, it's actually surprising that bitcoin is not below $10k right now
I don't know how low bitcoin will go as the US continues this regulatory attack...
For this upcoming bull market cycle, I really like the idea of monetary premium that will move from real estate and bonds to Bitcoin and other crypto assets
There's a monetary premium on assets as investors are trying to fight the fiat debasement, the stock market and real estate and the risk-free treasury bonds. I've heard arguments that NVDA and TSLA and FB and AAPL will continue to go up as they are acting as a safe haven SoV
But if things line up nicely, we could see monetary premium move from RE and bonds to Bitcoin on this upcoming bull market
The deca and centi millionaires have gotten a taste of what it's like having wealth trapped in a Blackstone REIT
Billionaire Ray Dalio interview on CNBC explaining risk-less treasuries are actually high risk, yes, you will get paid in fiat guaranteed, but the value will be debased with inflation
I think bitcoin price will hit $500K before the end of 2027
Luke Broyles has some great videos on this subject
