Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

The debt ceiling breakout could be to the downside...

Good news(?) the debt ceiling has been raised and may completely disappear in 2025

It will be an interesting week. We'll have to look at how the bond markets trade

The Treasury is going to be issuing over a trillion $ of debt, who's going to buy them? If it's the Fed, that would be awesome for the stock market and all risk assets, party like it's 1999, QE45678

The other countries are not a fan of our US debt

If it's going to be the US banks or the stock market "investors" or other investors, that's less liquidity for all risk assets

upload_2023-5-28_12-2-15.png
 
Purely from a technical perspective from my algo which I deem relatively reliable, there's a little more downside to bitcoin which can be expected in the very near term (smart money driving prce down to get more of a bargain) then very early June, bitcoin will run up.

The usual pattern to expect is for price to languish for long periods of time followed by sharp short price explosions to the upside which leave many sitting in the dust caught by the surprise.
^BTCUSD_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_05_29_2023.png
 
I'm yield farming Pepe again on the Uniswap v3, the yield is down to 148% APY due to Pepe getting listed on many exchanges

In order to capture all the upside of Pepe as well as the downside, I'm only farming with 10 Eth worth of Pepe and I added more capital at risk (10 Eth)

Closed the yield farm on Pepe, yield is down due to low trading volume on Uniswap, weak price action on Pepe even with the debt ceiling news

Converted 70% of the Pepe holding to Eth in anticipation of the HK/China allowing trading of the top 20 cryptos in the next 2 days

NFA
 
I gotta say, this isn't positive in the slightest. Even if the projects themselves have something going for them, losing exchange listings is a huge problem to overcome.


Prices are of course far too low now to do anything about my positions (I have a good chuck of SOL and smaller positions in ADA and Matic), so it either goes to zero or pumps again at a later date, but man, just when you thought things couldn't get any worse....
 
Cryptos are under attack by the US regulators and banks. There's no denying this

Crypto firms and projects are moving out of the US and also do not want US residents to access their systems, i.e. putting geo-blocking

We all have suspicions on why this is happening but there is nothing that can stop these attacks from continuing to happen, maybe if there is a more crypto-friendly administration in the future, who knows, but I would not count on it

Anyway, yes it's possible that prices may come down for the crypto projects that are affected, even the majors like btc and eth prices may go down, but these are in the short term

Bitcoin and cryptos ecosystem will move on without the US
 
Cryptos are under attack by the US regulators and banks. There's no denying this

Crypto firms and projects are moving out of the US and also do not want US residents to access their systems, i.e. putting geo-blocking

We all have suspicions on why this is happening but there is nothing that can stop these attacks from continuing to happen, maybe if there is a more crypto-friendly administration in the future, who knows, but I would not count on it

Anyway, yes it's possible that prices may come down for the crypto projects that are affected, even the majors like btc and eth prices may go down, but these are in the short term

Bitcoin and cryptos ecosystem will move on without the US
I honestly doubt the viability of many of these coins without the US market (ie. Money). Bitcoin of course is safe, and I see a place for all the innovation around smart contracts and this type of technology. But I honestly wish I didn't own anything but bitcoin at this point.
 
I honestly doubt the viability of many of these coins without the US market (ie. Money). Bitcoin of course is safe, and I see a place for all the innovation around smart contracts and this type of technology. But I honestly wish I didn't own anything but bitcoin at this point.

Capital will go where it is treated best

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digitalrules/2009/05/18/capital-goes-where-its-welcome/?sh=160b6dd553d4


Money will flow to Bitcoin and Ethereum, and from there, the cryptos ecosystem will absorb the liquidity, through dexes and other inter-blockchain transfers, even offshore cexes

Binance dot com has 10x btc trading volume than Coinbase Asian crypto trading markets are much bigger than the US


https://cointelegraph.com/news/cryp...not-in-the-us-or-europe-bitcoin-builders-2023
 
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