Way ahead of you.... already watched these!
I like his spiral charts. Look at how nicely everything lined up when presented like this.
Crypto Macro Trends for 2022
- Thread starter johnarb
- Start date
I like his spiral charts. Look at how nicely everything lined up when presented like this.
Yes, I guess we have a guide on when to sell for the next bull market price peak
Will sign up for the service, I think it's a good price
What strikes me about this chart is that the increase from the “orange” to “red” cycle was much less in percentage terms than the prior one. And 2020-22 was a historic mania across many asset classes. The “adoption” narrative (for payments, or corporations keeping their cash in BTC etc) was a bust.
That said, a bitcoin ETF could send prices up by three to five fold.
That is true, but also, the higher we go, the more money it takes to move the needle. With a 100B market cap, 1 billion coming in moves the price way more than when the market cap was 1T.
The metric that I really like though is how bitcoin will swallow the market caps of Gold and Real Estate. It really is superior in many ways over these.
A quote I also like was from Lynn Alden. Everyone is chasing yield, and you have to when you're dealing with a currency designed to lose value. But you don't need yield if you're in bitcoin.
There are of course also enough articles on how RE isn't that attractive when you look at all costs. Plus, even if it was great to capture these insane price appreciations of the past 10 years, you really have to ask if the next 10 are going to be as good for RE. I think not. What does the world have to look like going forward if RE goes up another 3x even? So basically, if your properly isn't cash flow positive, its a shitty investment going forward because you aren't gonna get price appreciation.
BTC market cap higher than real estate? What are you smoking?
With an ETF, perhaps bitcoin’s market cap would rise to 25-50% that of “investment” gold.
I didn't mean to say it will be higher, but just that it will steal some market share away.
Why did real estate really balloon in the past decade, or perhaps even a bit sooner? Zero interest rates.... so that thesis is out the window now. Furthermore, costs of everything is going up. These condos that investors love degrade very quickly. Next thing you know, your maintenance fees are through the roof. The agents take a killing to sell them, so the spread on real estate is crap, as is liquidity. Now we also need to add government risk, maybe just simple things like rent control, or more complex issues like your city goes to shit and everyone is leaving. So if you ask me, I just don't think the next 10 years will be as favorable for RE as an investment vs. the last 10.
But it is a hard asset, no doubt about it. And it does produce income... hopefully. But if a better hard asset comes along, why would an investor not swap out one for the other?
I honestly see bitcoin taking the 10T title and going further. I know central banks are buying lots, but no central bank can back their currency with gold. Currencies are designed to debase. Its the essential part of running a government... slow and steady inflation, and when people catch on, they pray. Using gold to back your currency is simply a way to over promise and under deliver if you ask me. Nobody will trust who has what, especially when the need for trust is removed with technology.
An update, but still holding the MSTR LEAPS call options expiration Jan/2024
The position lost over 90% of the value at the low, starting to creep up to break-even
I do not want to sell part or the whole position at less than 6-figures
About 6 months to expiration
Still holding my MSTR LEAPs short-PUT. Expiration DEC/2025
