Conservative Options Trades

IBM:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-raised-bets-visa-212500915.html
http://www.forbes.com/sites/patrick...s-disappoint-troubled-giant/?partner=yahootix
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-department-energy-selects-ibm-150400071.html
http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2014/11/13/will-ibm-rise-again/?partner=yahootix
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ibm

Trade:
With IBM at 164.16
April 140/135 bull put spread for a net credit of $37
Yield = 37/463 = 8% in 151 days or 19.3% annualized
Prob = 95%
Expectation = .95(37) - .02(463) - .03(232) = 35.2 - 9.3 - 7.0 =18.9

Price..........Profit / Loss..........ROM %
100.00.........(463.00).............-92.60%
120.00.........(463.00).............-92.60%
135.00.........(463.00).............-92.60%
139.63..............0.00.................0.00%
140.00............37.00.................8.00%
150.00............37.00.................8.00%
164.16............37.00.................8.00%
175.00............37.00.................8.00%
 
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CREE:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1295...mponents-business.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CREE+Key+Statistics

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.CREE.NAS?symbol=CREE&form=PRFISB

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterde...t-another-efficient-led-light-bulb-from-cree/

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CREE

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CREE Basic Chart#{"range":"1y","scale":"linear"}

Trade:
With CREE at 35.57
April 25/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/475 = 5.3% in 150 days or 12.6% annualized
Prob = 92%

Price..........Profit / Loss..........ROM %
15.00..........(475.00)................-95.00%
20.00..........(475.00)................-95.00%
20.65..........(409.60)................-81.92%
24.75...............0.00....................0.00%
25.00..............25.00...................5.30%
30.00..............25.00...................5.30%
35.00..............25.00...................5.30%
40.00..............25.00...................5.30%
45.00..............25.00...................5.30%
 
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TSLA:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-tsla-shares-skid-morgan-192002266.html

http://www.forbes.com/sites/uciliawang/2013/08/08/a-manufacturing-lesson-from-tesla-motors/

http://online.wsj.com/articles/tesla-confirms-nevada-to-get-battery-factory-1409871734

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TSLA Key Statistics

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.TSLA.NAS?symbol=TSLA&form=PRFISB

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=tsla

Trade:
With TSLA at 248.71
Sell Jun 320 call and buy Jun 325 call for a net credit of $41
Yield = 41/459 = 8.9% in 210 days or 15.5% annualized
Prob = 86%
Expectation = .86(41) - .13(320) - .01(160) = 35.26 - 41.6 - 1.6 = -8

Price...............Profit / Loss..........ROM %
186.53................41.00.................8.90%
228.70................41.00.................8.90%
273.09................41.00.................8.90%
317.48................41.00.................8.90%
320.00................41.00.................8.90%
320.41..................0.00.................0.00%
325.00..............(459.00)............-91.80%
361.86..............(459.00)............-91.80%
406.25..............(459.00)............-91.80%

An alternate trade:
Jun 150/145 bull put spread for a net credit of $65
Yield = 65/435 = 14.9% in 210 days or 25.97% annualized
Prob = 96%
Expectation = .96(65) - .03(435) - .01(218) = 62.4 - 13.05 - 2.18 = 47.2

Price..................Profit / Loss.................ROM %
108.75.................(435.00).....................-87.00%
145.00.................(435.00).....................-87.00%
147.54.................(180.60).....................-36.12%
149.35......................0.00.............................0.00%
150.00....................65.00........................14.90%
188.38....................65.00........................14.90%
229.22....................65.00........................14.90%
270.05....................65.00........................14.90%
310.89....................65.00........................14.90%
 
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If I use as a denominator the amount of money I have deployed I am up 16.6%. YTD, If I use as a denominator the entire account I am up half that...because I am only half deployed.

I have been waiting for things to be more settled before upping my deployment like: what the Fed will actually do and how the market will respond, especially bond prices, interest rates and inflation; I've been waiting for the S&P to pull back so I can get a test of support levels; waiting for earnings and projected earnings especially to settle etc. etc.

WELL I should have known better than to expect a settled market to trade in as there is no such thing. Still, right now I'm waiting for a pull back in the S&P to set support levels.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY

Lots-a-luck to me.
 
USO:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chart-164634248.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-oil-price-keeps-dropping-2014-11

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cancel-thanksgiving-most-important-opec-145500131.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USO Basic Chart#{"range":"5y","scale":"linear"}

Trade:
With USO at 28.74
Jul 35/40 bear call spread for a net credit of $38
Yield = 38/462 = 8.2% in 234 days or 12.8% annualized
Prob = 81%
Expectation = .81(38) - .08(462) - .11(231) = 30.78 - 36.96 - 25.41 = -31.5

Price..............Profit / Loss...................ROM %
20.00...................38.00..........................8.20%
25.00...................38.00..........................8.20%
30.00...................38.00..........................8.20%
35.00...................38.00..........................8.20%
35.38.....................0.00.........................0.00%
38.51.................(312.70)....................-62.54%
40.00.................(462.00)....................-92.40%
45.00.................(462.00)....................-92.40%
50.00.................(462.00)....................-92.40%
 
MMM:
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...ow-the-stock-outperforms/?mod=BOL_hp_blog_stw

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MMM Key Statistics

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.MMM.NYS?symbol=MMM&form=PRFISB

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3m-hits-52-week-high-190138533.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MMM Basic Chart#{"range":"5y","scale":"linear","comparisons":{"^GSPC":{"color":"#cc0000","weight":1}}}

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=mmm

Trade:
With MMM at 158.06
APR 170/175 bear call spread for a net credit of $60
Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 141 days or 35.3% annualized
Prob = 82%
Expectation = .82(60) - .09(440) - .09(220) = 49.2 - 39.6 - 19.8 = -10

Price...........Profit / Loss.......ROM %
120.00.............60.00..............13.60%
140.00.............60.00..............13.60%
160.00.............60.00..............13.60%
170.00.............60.00..............13.60%
170.60...............0.00...............0.00%
175.00...........(440.00)..........-88.00%
180.00...........(440.00)..........-88.00%
190.00...........(440.00)..........-88.00%
200.00...........(440.00)..........-88.00%

Alternate trade:
APR 145/140 bull put spread for a net credit of $55
Yield = 55/445 = 12.36% or 32% annualized
Prob = 87%
Expectation = .87(55) - .06(445) - .07(223) = 47.85 - 26.7 - 15.6 = 5.6

Price..............Profit / Loss........ROM %
105.00..............(445.00)............-89.00%
122.77..............(445.00)............-89.00%
140.00..............(445.00)............-89.00%
141.47..............(298.10)............-59.62%
144.45...................0.00................0.00%
145.00.................55.00...............12.36%
160.17.................55.00...............12.36%
178.87.................55.00...............12.36%
197.58.................55.00...............12.36%
 
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AMZN:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazons-robot-army-ready-ship-050244613.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=amzn

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.AMZN.NAS?symbol=AMZN&form=PRFISB

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AMZN Key Statistics

Trade:
With AMZN at 338.64
Feb 285/280 bull put spread for a net credit of $40
Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 80 days or 39.7% annualized
Prob = 93%
Expectation = .93(40) - .05(460) - .02(230) = 37.2 - 23 - 5 = 9.2

Price..........Profit / Loss.........ROM %
210.00...........(460.00)..........-92.00%
250.00...........(460.00)..........-92.00%
280.00...........(460.00)..........-92.00%
284.60................0.00..............0.00%
285.00..............40.00..............8.00%
295.00..............40.00..............8.00%
338.64..............40.00..............8.00%
 
STAA:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-staar-staa-060014979.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=STAA Key Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=STAA

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=staa

TRADE:
with STAA at 9.03
June 10/12.5 bear call spread for a net credit of $80
Yield = 80/170 = 47% in 197 days or 87% annualized
Prob = 68%
Expectation = .68(80) - .20(170) - .12(85) = 54.4 - 34 - 10.2 = 10.3

Price............Profit / Loss.........ROM %
6.50.................80.00.................47.00%
8.50.................80.00.................47.00%
10.00...............80.00.................47.00%
10.26...............54.00.................21.60%
10.80.................0.00..................0.00%
12.05............(124.80)...............-49.92%
12.50............(170.00)...............-68.00%
13.50............(170.00)...............-68.00%
15.50............(170.00)...............-68.00%
 
MKC:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mccormick-mkc-upgraded-strong-buy-204002317.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MKC Key Statistics

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.MKC.NYS?symbol=MKC&form=PRFISB

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=mkc
Trade:
with MKC at 73.89
June 65/60 bull put spread for a net credit of $65
Yield = 65/435 = 14.9% in 197 days or 27.7% annualized
Prob = 87%
Expectation = .87(65) - .04(435) - .09(218) = 56.6 - 17.4 - 19.6 = 19.6

Price...........Profit / Loss.............ROM %
45.00............(435.00).................-87.00%
54.09............(435.00).................-87.00%
60.00............(435.00).................-87.00%
63.66............(69.20)...................-13.84%
64.35...............0.00.......................0.00%
65.00.............65.00......................14.90%
73.23.............65.00......................14.90%
82.79.............65.00......................14.90%
92.36.............65.00......................14.90%
 
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