Conservative Options Trades

GOOG:
http://online.barrons.com/articles/google-time-to-buy-the-stock-1417846206?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_3

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.GOOG.NAS?symbol=GOOG&form=PRFISB

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GOOG Basic Chart#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

Trade:
With GOOG at 525.26
June 470/465 bull put spread for a net credit of $40
Yield = 40/460 = 8.7% in 192 days or 16.5% annualized
Prob = 80%
Expectation = .80(40) - .17(460) - .03(230) = 32.00 - 78.2 - 6.9 = -53.1
Price.............Profit / Loss.............ROM %
348.75.............(460.00)................-92.00%
407.83.............(460.00)................-92.00%
465.00.............(460.00)................-92.00%
469.60..................0.00....................0.00%
470.00.................40.00...................8.70%
470.01.................40.00...................8.70%
532.20.................40.00...................8.70%
594.39.................40.00...................8.70%
656.58.................40.00...................8.70%
 
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CBST:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/merck-dives-superbug-chase-cubist-131120456.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CBST Basic Chart#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

TRADE:
Sell Jan '16 100 put and buy Jan'16 90 put for a net credit of $50

Price................Profit / Loss.........ROM %
67.50...............(950.00)..........-95.00%
78.68...............(950.00)..........-95.00%
90.00...............(950.00)..........-95.00%
90.45...............(905.30)..........-90.53%
99.50....................0.00..............0.00%
100.00................50.00..............5.00%
102.21................50.00..............5.00%
113.98................50.00..............5.00%
125.75................50.00..............5.00%

MRK:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MRK

Sell Jun 55 put and buy Jun 50 put for a net credit of $70

Price...............Profit / Loss...........ROM %
37.50...............(430.00)............-86.00%
45.15...............(430.00)............-86.00%
50.00...............(430.00)............-86.00%
53.20...............(110.20)............-22.04%
54.30....................0.00................0.00%
55.00..................70.00...............16.00%
61.25..................70.00...............16.00%
69.30..................70.00...............16.00%
77.35..................70.00...............16.00%
 
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GILD:
http://online.barrons.com/articles/...is-cheap-1418302877?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.GILD.NAS?symbol=GILD&form=PRFISB

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gilead-faces-lawsuit-over-hepatitis-225929555.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gild

Trade:
with GILD at 105.62
May 87.5/85 bull put spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/205 = 22% in 155 days or 52% annualized
Prob = 79%
Expectation = .79(45) - .17(205) - .04(103) = 35.6 - 34.8 - 4.1 = -3

Price..............Profit / Loss.............ROM %
65.00.................(205.00)................-82.00%
75.00.................(205.00)................-82.00%
85.00.................(205.00)................-82.00%
87.05.......................0.00.....................0.00%
87.50.....................45.00..................22.00%
90.00.....................45.00..................22.00%
105.00...................45.00..................22.00%
115.00...................45.00..................22.00%
125.00...................45.00..................22.00%
 
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ORCL:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-to-expect-from-oracles-earnings-2014-12-16?siteid=yhoof2

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/157356/will-oracle-orcl-disappoint-this-earnings-season

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ORCL

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.ORCL.NYS?symbol=ORCL&form=PRFISB

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ORCL Interactive#{"range":"5y","scale":"linear"}

Trade:
with ORCL at 40.63
Jan '16 25/23 bull put spread for a net credit of $15
Yield = 15/185 = 8.1% in 393 days or 7.5% annualized
Prob = 94%
Expectation = .94(15) - .03(185) - .03(93) = 14.1 -5.6 - 2.8 = 5.7

Price..........Profit / Loss.........ROM %
17.00..........(185.00).............-92.50%
23.00..........(185.00).............-92.50%
23.69..........(116.40).............-58.20%
24.85...............0.00................0.00%
25.00.............15.00................8.10%
30.00.............15.00................8.10%
35.00.............15.00................8.10%
40.00.............15.00................8.10%
55.00.............15.00................8.10%
 
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CVX:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johntob...s-analysis-replaces-emotion/?partner=yahootix

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2763965-whats-a-fair-price-for-chevron

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.CVX.NYS?symbol=CVX&form=PRFISB

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CVX

Trade:
with CVX at 112.03
Jun 85/80 bull put spread for a net credit of $34.
Yield = 34/466 = 7.3% in 178 days or 15% annualized
Prob = 94%
Expectation = .94(34) - .03(466) - .03(233) = 31.96 - 13.98 - 6.99 = 11

Price............Profit / Loss........ROM %
60.00.............(466.00)............-93.20%
75.00.............(466.00)............-93.20%
80.00.............(466.00)............-93.20%
84.66..................0.00..................0.00%
85.00................34.00..................7.30%
90.00................34.00..................7.30%
100.00..............34.00..................7.30%
120.00..............34.00..................7.30%
140.00..............34.00..................7.30%
 
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SHLD:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-12-04/sears-loss-widens-to-548-million-as-sales-keep-sliding

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2773345-sears-the-lampert-report

http://investorplace.com/2014/12/sears-stock-shld-layaways/#.VJlNZREDY

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SHLD Interactive#{"range":"1y","scale":"linear"}

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.SHLD.NAS?symbol=SHLD&form=PRFISB

Trade:
with SHLD at 33.96
March 45/50 bear call spread for a net credit of $41
Yield = 41/459 = 8.9% in 86 days or 38% annualized
Prob = 83%

Price.............Profit / Loss............ROM %
25.00................41.00....................8.90%
35.00................41.00....................8.90%
40.00................41.00....................8.90%
45.00................41.00....................8.90%
45.41..................0.00....................0.00%
47.50..............(212.80)...............-42.56%
50.00..............(459.00)...............-91.80%
55.00..............(459.00)...............-91.80%
60.00..............(459.00)...............-91.80%
 
MCD:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-mcdonalds-mcd-bear-060006500.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MCD

Trade:
With MCD at 93.89
Mar 100/105 bear call spread for a net credit of $71
Yield = 71/429 = 16.6% in 86 days or 70% annualized
Prob = 73%

Price...........Profit / Loss..........ROM %
70.00..............71.00...................14.20%
80.00..............71.00...................14.20%
90.00..............71.00...................14.20%
100.00.............71.00..................14.20%
100.71...............0.00....................0.00%
105.00..........(429.00)................-85.80%
110.00..........(429.00)................-85.80%
120.00..........(429.00)................-85.80%
130.00..........(429.00)................-85.80%
 
CPB:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/campbell-tops-street-1q-forecasts-122802150.html

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1297...-of-campbell-soup.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://news.investors.com/121714-73...s-boost.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/campbell-soup-continue-hold-investor-164504457.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.CPB.NYS?symbol=CPB&form=PRFISB

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CPB Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear","comparisons":{"^GSPC":{"color":"#cc0000","weight":1}}}

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cpb

Trade:
With CPB at 44.83
Jan '16 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $100
Yield = 100/400 = 25% in 383 days or 23.8% annualized
Prob = 91%
Expectation = .91(100) - .01(400) - .08(200) = 91 - 4 - 16 = 71

Price...........Profit / Loss........ROM %
22.00...........(400.00).............-75.00%
29.00...........(400.00).............-75.00%
30.00...........(400.00).............-75.00%
34.00................0.00.................0.00%
35.00.............100.00...............25.00%
40.00.............100.00...............25.00%
45.00.............100.00...............25.00%
50.00.............100.00...............25.00%
 
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DDD:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3d-printing-stocks-surge-2015-183806637.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3d-systems-wins-2014-design-140000270.html

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.DDD.NYS?symbol=DDD&form=PRFISB

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DDD
(look out for HPQ and GE)


Trade:
With DDD at 32.20
Aug 30/32 bull call spread for a net debit of $134
Yield = 66/134 = 49% in 234 days or 77% annualized

Price............Profit / Loss........ROI %
22.50.............(134.00).........-100.00%
25.00.............(134.00).........-100.00%
29.00.............(134.00).........-100.00%
30.00.............(134.00).........-100.00%
31.34..................0.00...............0.00%
32.00................66.00..............49.25%
33.00................66.00..............49.25%
36.00................66.00..............49.25%
40.00................66.00..............49.25%
 
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PCG:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/pg-e-corp-strong-buy-224110540.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PCG Key Statistics
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLU
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=PCG Competitors
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.PCG.NYS?symbol=PCG&form=PRFISB
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=PCG Headlines
http://www.pgecurrents.com/2014/02/...gins-inline-inspection-of-peninsula-pipeline/
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=PCG Interactive#

PCG pays a 3.5% dividend

TRADE:
With PCG at 53.34
June 40/37 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/275 = 9.1% in 166 days or 20% annualized
Prob = 98%
Expectation = .98(25) - .01(275) - .01(138) = 24.5 - 2.75 - 1.38 = 20

Price..............Profit / Loss..............ROM %
30.00...............(275.00)..................-91.67%
35.00...............(275.00)..................-91.67%
37.00...............(275.00)..................-91.67%
39.75....................0.00......................0.00%
40.00...................25.00.....................9.10%
45.00...................25.00.....................9.10%
50.00...................25.00.....................9.10%
55.00...................25.00.....................9.10%
60.00...................25.00.....................9.10%
 
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