Conservative Options Trades

I remember mamma

When I was about 13 years old I used to go horse back riding on saturday mornings at the Shawmont Stables in Philadelphia. The stables were at Henry and Shawmont avenues, about a 45 minute walk from my house in North Philadelphia.
It cost me $5.00 to ride for an hour on the horseback riding trails along the Wissahickon creek. If business was slow they would let me stay out for an extra hour for free.

https://www.google.com/search?q=wissahickon+creek&biw=1209&bih=942&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=GcA-VNr8BZeNNvXYgMgG&ved=0CDYQsAQ&dpr=0.95

I remember the most beautiful country side.
I remember the little 17th century houses each widely spaced by rustic tree covered roads.
I remember the pasture land divided by white board fences. I remember the deer, pheasant and the occasional fox.

But most of all I remember Momma.

Momma was an elderly, piebold quarter horse that was my companion for an hour or two almst every Saturday. After I had ridden her a few times she used to get all excited when she saw me and pull out of the handler's grip and come and rub her head against my chest so that I would pet her.
I never ran Momma and I always had an Apple for her. She returned the favor by never going under a low hanging branch or rubbing my leg against a fence or tree trunk.
Momma and I would wonder through the Wissahickon trails down to the Valley Green Inn where we would sit a while. I would have an Ice cream cone, finances permitting, and I would give Momma her apple.

http://www.valleygreeninn.com/

Then I would walk Momma back to her stables, and walk myself on home.

Getting the $5.00 to go horse back riding was not a given for a scruffy north philadelphia boy in the 1950's.

But I had gotten a gig (so to speak).

I served mass every morning at 6:30 AM at the St.Joseph's Home for Girls. It was officially named "The Catholic Home for Destitute Girls" but they didn't use that name much for obvious reasons. It was a massive 18th century stone house given to the archdiocese when some old codger died. It housed a large number of little girls which I only saw at mass, or, once in a while, giggling at me from around a corner.

Every morning at 6:00 AM I would walk the two blocks from my house to the home, go in a side door left open for me, climb a set of stairs built into the stone walls and end up in a little dressing room behind the altar of the chapel. I would put on cassock and surplice, stand at the door to the altar and wait.

After a short wait I would hear "AHEM" which was my signal to walk out to the alter from the left side while the priest walked out from the right side and thus I would serve at mass.
Every day as I left after mass there was, on the window sill next to the door, either an apple or an orange. This was my daily pay which I would eat as breakfast on the way home, saving one apple a week for Momma.

On saturday there would also be a five dollar bill. This was my weekly reward which I would immediately go and spend on my saturday ride.

You meet many people in life who seem to have no soul. They have no love in them, only hardness and hate. For some reason Bill O'Riley comes to mind.

An old saying used to be 'jeez didn't that guy ever have a mother'

I think they never had a Momma.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.valleygreeninn.com/

I take an early morning walk along this 165 year old inn most mornings weather permitting.
I have my coffee and read the WSJ on the veranda then head home which is nearby
The view is beautifull and changes colors with the seasons which helps to mitigate the recent market doldrums that the WSJ is reporting
So do the young ladies jogging
cheers
john
 
HCI:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-day-hci-group-hci-050042376.html

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/10/16/hurricane-gonzalo-bermuda/17345911/

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=HCI Key Statistics

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=hci

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HCI&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

Trade:
with HCI at 46.80
APR 35/30 bull put spread for a net credit of $30
Yield = 30/470 = 6.4% in 181 days or 12.9% annualized

Price..........Profit / Loss..........ROM %
20.00..........(470.00)..............-94.00%
25.00..........(470.00)..............-94.00%
30.00..........(470.00)..............-94.00%
34.70...............0.00..................0.00%
35.00.............30.00..................6.40%
40.00.............30.00..................6.40%
45.00.............30.00..................6.40%
50.00.............30.00..................6.40%
55.00.............30.00..................6.40%
 
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Have you considered putting on trades in TZA? or stocks with small spreads on the strikes?

Unless I'm mistaken, on the TZA Iron Condors with 0.50 widths on either leg, if you can collect between $30+ in credits, then over time if the odds play out you'll be up.
 
You mean like:

TZA:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=TZA&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

Nov 14/13:20/21 iron condor for a net credit of $24
Yield = 24/76 = 31.6% in 34 days or 300% annualized
Prob = ??
Price..........Profit / Loss............ROM %
9.00..............(76.00).................-76.00%
12.00............(76.00).................-76.00%
13.00............(76.00).................-76.00%
13.76..............0.00......................0.00%
14.00.............24.00....................31.60%
16.25.............24.00....................31.60%
19.58.............24.00....................31.60%
20.00.............24.00....................31.60%
20.24..............0.00......................0.00%
21.00...........(76.00)..................-76.00%
25.00...........(76.00)..................-76.00%

It's a little complex and in fact when I tried to submit that combo in OptionsXpress it froze the software.
:)

I tried again and it rejected that order...saying it was unable to submit the order.
Actually I think I have tried this before and they simply won't take that combo or any variation thereof.

To get it submitted I would probably have to talk to a rep. When talking to a rep I have a hard time getting them to understand my simpler trades and I am afraid they would say..."I'll have to get back to you" and I would never hear from them again.

Thanks for the suggestion anyway.
 
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This morning O'Xpress is working much better. Probably finished maintenance for the weekend.

I WAS able to submit:

Nov 14/12:20/22 iron condor for a net credit of $38

I'll leave it run and see if they are actually able to execute it.

:)

My max liability is 200 - 38 = 162

R/R = 162/38 = 4.3

As I read it the Prob = 56% (more or less)
 
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MCD:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...send-diners-to-fancier-rivals.html?cmpid=yhoo
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...alds-fast-food-restaurants-earnings/17652697/
http://pressroom.consumerreports.org/pressroom/2014/07/my-entry-1.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-problems-mcdonalds-facing-us-132858446.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-tops-3q-net-income-120952579.html
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MCD

Trade:
with MCD at 91.01
Mar 97.5/100 bear call spread for a net credit of $32
Yield = 32/218 = 14.7% in 148 days or 36% annualized
Prob = 75%
Expectation = .75(32) - .19(218) - .06(109) = 24 - 41 - 6 = -23

Price...........Profit / Loss.........ROM %
70.00...............32.00...............14.70%
80.00...............32.00...............14.70%
90.00...............32.00...............14.70%
97.50...............32.00...............14.70%
97.82.................0.00................0.00%
100.00..........(218.00)............-87.20%
105.00..........(218.00)............-87.20%
110.00..........(218.00)............-87.20%
125.00..........(218.00)............-87.20%
 
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oldnemsis, You must have some great patience holding these. It's incredibly slow and any pop in IV, we're just waiting and waiting. Do you ever manage the winners on these? taking 30 cents on $2.5 wide doesn't leave much room to manage winning trades... How about loss criteria?
 
MCD:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...send-diners-to-fancier-rivals.html?cmpid=yhoo
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...alds-fast-food-restaurants-earnings/17652697/
http://pressroom.consumerreports.org/pressroom/2014/07/my-entry-1.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-problems-mcdonalds-facing-us-132858446.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mcdonalds-tops-3q-net-income-120952579.html
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MCD

Trade:
with MCD at 91.67
Mar 97.5/100 bear call spread for a net credit of $32
Yield = 32/218 = 14.7% in 145 days or 37% annualized
Prob = 75%
Expectation = .75(32) - .19(218) - .06(109) = 24 - 41 - 6 = -23

Price...........Profit / Loss.........ROM %
70.00...............32.00...............14.70%
80.00...............32.00...............14.70%
90.00...............32.00...............14.70%
97.50...............32.00...............14.70%
97.82.................0.00................0.00%
100.00..........(218.00)............-87.20%
105.00..........(218.00)............-87.20%
110.00..........(218.00)............-87.20%
125.00..........(218.00)............-87.20%
 
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IBM:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bear-day-international-business-machines-050031575.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/blog-singing-the-blues-buffett-loses-nearly-1b-in-ibm-020935884.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ibm-pay-1-5b-shed-102946736.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ibm

Trade:
With IBM at 162.08
Jan 180/185 bear call spread for a net credit of $28
Yield = 28/472 = 5.9% in 81 days or 27% annualized
Prob = 90%
Expectation = .9(28) - .06(472) - .04(236) = 25.2 - 28.3 - 9.4 = -12

Price............Profit / Loss.............ROM %
130.00.............28.00.....................5.90%
150.00.............28.00.....................5.90%
170.00.............28.00.....................5.90%
180.00.............28.00.....................5.90%
180.00...............0.00.....................0.00%
185.00..........(472.00).................-94.40%
190.00..........(472.00).................-94.40%
200.00..........(472.00).................-94.40%
210.00...........(472.00)................-94.40%
 
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IBM ct'd

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ibm

Longer term investment in IBM's declining fortunes:
With IBM at 162.08
Jan '16 200/205 bear call spread for a net credit of $45
Yield = 45/455 = 9.89% in 444 days or 8.1% annualized
Prob = 87%
Expectation = .87(45) - .11(455) - .02(227) = 39.2 - 50.1 - 4.54 = -15

This could be a good 'money parking' trade
 
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