Conservative Options Trades

Cree:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cree-misses-street-1q-forecasts-203623658.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cree-announces-increase-company-stock-223000643.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=CREE

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterde...nt-led-light-bulb-from-cree/?partner=yahootix

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CREE Basic Chart#{"range":"5y","scale":"linear"}


Trade:
With CREE at 31.51
Jan 25/20 bull put spread for a net credit of $25
Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in 68 days or 28.2% annualized
Prob = 90%
Expectation = .9(25) - .01(475) - .09(237) = 22.5 - 4.75 - 21.3 = -3.6

Price...........Profit / Loss.......ROM %
15.00...........(475.00).............-95.00%
20.00...........(475.00).............-95.00%
24.61...........(14.30)................-2.86%
24.75..............0.00..................0.00%
25.00............25.00..................5.26%
30.00............25.00..................5.26%
35.00............25.00..................5.26%
40.00............25.00..................5.26%
 
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UCO:
Crude oil prices continue to decline:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UCO Basic Chart#{"range":"1y","scale":"linear"}

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1293...-price-prediction.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfun...ll-for-fourth-week/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1292...alyst-reports-play-havoc-with-oil-sector.html

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfun...opec-gets-stubborn/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/pho...sualized-on-a-beautiful-map-of-182301721.html

Trade:
with UCO at 24.04
Apr 24/22 bear put spread for a net debit of $93.

Price..........Profit / Loss.........ROI %
16.50...........107.00...............115.05%
19.10...........107.00...............115.05%
21.84...........107.00...............115.05%
22.00...........107.00...............115.05%
24.00...........(93.00).............-100.00%
24.58...........(93.00).............-100.00%
27.31...........(93.00).............-100.00%
30.05...........(93.00).............-100.00%
 
hey Dan, not sure if you'll respond to this, but I'm wondering if I'm blind or is this trade too good to be true.

TZA @13.60 current price
Nov 28 13.50 CALL 1.15
Nov 28 13.50 PUT 0.4

This looks like an arbitrage risk free profit...or is bigcharts glitched out?
http://postimg.org/image/8uca61pt5/ image URL


8uca61pt5
 
TZA
For TZA 11/28
with TZA at 13.60
13.5 NOV 28 straddle
Cost = $164
at expiration:

Price............Profit / Loss..........ROI %
10.13...........173.50...........105.79%
11.44............41.60..............25.37%
11.86..............0.00...............0.00%
12.83...........(97.30)...........-59.33%
13.50...........(164.00)........-100.00%
14.22...........(91.80)............-55.98%
15.14..............0.00................0.00%
15.61.............47.10..............28.72%
17.00............186.00............113.41%
 
BKW:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/burger-king-reports-3q-loss-125149475.html

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=bkw

Trade:
with BKW at 32.2
Jan 35/38 bear call spread for a net credit of $75
Yield = 75/225 = 33.3% in 73 days or 167% annualized
Prob = 73%
Expectation = .73(75) - .12(225) - .15(113) = 54.75 - 27 - 17 = 11

Price........Profit / Loss.........ROM %
24.23.........75.00..................33.00%
28.69.........75.00..................33.00%
33.39.........75.00..................33.00%
35.00.........75.00..................33.00%
35.75..........0.00....................0.00%
38.00.......(225.00)..............-75.00%
38.10.......(225.00)..............-75.00%
42.80.......(225.00)..............-75.00%
47.50.......(225.00)..............-75.00%
 
DAL:
http://investorplace.com/2014/11/delta-air-lines-bargain-fare-dal/#.VFrekrktCAw

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DAL

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DAL&ql=1#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

Trade:
With DAL at 41.87
Sell Jan '16 35 put for $355 with intent to be put
Yield on the put:
Yield = 355/3145 = 11.29% in 435 days or 9.5% annualized
Price...........Profit / Loss..........ROM %
26.25...........(520.00).............-14.86%
31.26...........(19.30)...............-0.55%
31.45..............0.00...................0.00%
35.00...........355.00................11.29%
36.53...........355.00................11.29%
41.80...........355.00................11.29%
47.07...........355.00................11.29%
52.34...........355.00................11.29%
 
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CSC:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/computer-sciences-tops-2q-profit-215810857.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/computer-sciences-csc-q2-earnings-161002116.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CSC Key Statistics

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.CSC.NYS?symbol=CSC&form=PRFISH

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CSC

Trade:
with CSC at 59.00
March 65/70 bear call spread for a net credit of $60
Yield = 60/440 = 13.6% in 233 days or 21.4% annualized
Prob = 70%
Price............Profit / Loss.............ROM %
44.25...............60.00...................13.60%
52.55...............60.00...................13.60%
61.29...............60.00...................13.60%
65.00...............60.00...................13.60%
65.60.................0.00....................0.00%
70.00..............(440.00)...............-88.00%
70.02..............(440.00)...............-88.00%
78.76..............(440.00)...............-88.00%
87.50..............(440.00)...............-88.00%
 
GE:
http://news.investors.com/111014-72...s-focus.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=669080&SR=Yahoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ge-profit-tops-estimates-margins-111931862.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GE Basic Chart#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

GE pays a 3.3% dividend

Trade:
With GE at 26.47
Jun 22/18 bull put spread for a net credit of $23
Yield = 23/377 = 6.1% in 220 days or 10.1% annualized
Prob = 96%
Expectation = .96(23) - .01(377) - .03(188) = 22.1 - 3.8 - 5.6 = 12.7

Price............Profit / Loss...........ROM %
12.00.............(377.00)...............-94.25%
15.00.............(377.00)...............-94.25%
18.00.............(377.00)...............-94.25%
21.22...............(55.40)...............-13.85%
21.77..................0.00...................0.00%
22.00................23.00...................6.10%
25.00................23.00...................6.10%
30.00................23.00...................6.10%
35.00................23.00...................6.10%
 
FCAU:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mo...er-get-ferrari-stake-2014-11-13?siteid=yhoof2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_Chrysler_Automobiles

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/stockdetails/fi-126.1.FCAU.NYS?symbol=FCAU&form=PRFISB

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCAU

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FCAU Interactive#{"range":"2y","scale":"linear"}

Trade:
Sell Jun 7.50 put for a net credit of $30
Yield = 30/720 = 4.2% in 216 days or 7% annualized
Prob = ??

Price.........Profit / Loss..........ROM %
5.63.........(157.50)..................-21.00%
6.20.........(98.00)....................-14.00%
7.20............0.00........................0.00%
7.50..........30.00........................4.20%
7.50..........30.00........................4.20%
9.50..........30.00........................4.20%
11.50........30.00........................4.20%
 
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CLX:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...mp-20-amid-ebola-flu-concerns.html?cmpid=yhoo

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cramer-stock-bond-135100163.html

http://news.investors.com/111314-72...ividend.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=clx

Trade:
With CLX at 100.12
Jan 90/87.5 bull put spread for a net credit of $18
Yield = 18/232 = 7.75% in 63 days or 45% annualized
Prob = 94%
Expectation = .94(18) - .02(232) - .04(116) = 16.9 - 4.6 - 4.6 = 7.7

If I do 5 contracts:
Price............Profit / Loss..........ROM %
65.63............(1160.00).............-92.80%
77.05............(1160.00).............-92.80%
87.50............(1160.00).............-92.80%
89.07..............(373.00).............-29.84%
89.82...................0.00...................0.00%
90.00..................90.00................7.75%
101.10................90.00................7.75%
113.12................90.00................7.75%
125.15................90.00................7.75%
 
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