Confessions Of A Rapa User Diary

I don't mean to get into your specific trades I'm more curious about the nature of your portfolio on a historical and ongoing basis. Are you swing trading, position trading? It looks like you might be a very focused global macro type of guy or is it pure opportunism across any and all geographies/asset classes?

Is there any conflict of interest with your PA vs. your fund activities? I would think trading in the same instruments (either directly or synthetically) would be an ethical (if not regulatory but in Oz or other off-shore venues maybe not) faux-pas.

If it doesn't come back to you then your risk management will keep you out of trouble and it is on to the next set of positions, no big deal.


Quote from mickson:

For those of you who are wondering what is under the hood, these are my current positions. I am not going to debate why they just are. My purpose isn't to make this thread a commentary on trading positions, although at times it will happen. I am a libertarian so I will go with the flow, but I am slightly more complex a personality than just going with the flow, at times there needs to be a boss. Oh boy I can see my 22yrs of writing a personal journal spilling onto these pages :eek:

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essentially this account is my macro view with the odd short term trade included.

I sit with positions for months some times years and trade around the edges. This account is a continuation of a similar strategy I have traded for years with other brokerage accounts.

Overall my record has been good but my drawdowns are enormous. The problem I have found is that my macro views are often correct but usually years early (ouch).

Nobody would invest with me on the basis of this style of trading, but "it feels right". My biggest weakness is it has lacked some discipline and there is a high degree of bias within the strategy as I am a deep contrarian and will usually take more heart when I am losing than when I am winning. Prospect theory ring a bell?

Anyway the purpose of this journal is to rather stay a little bit more in tune with the drawdowns and general risk of the portfolio and rein it in a bit. I turned 40 last year so I guess I am starting to see a more responsible side to life. 40 was a big number for me. I feel like a kid in side but with a bit more life experience and a family to take care of I suddenly felt a life change come upon me. Chasing big $'s suddenly doesnt seem so important anymore.

Enjoy the weekend.
 
Thanks, it is always interesting to see another style at work. Cheers and have a good weekend as well (alas I'm day behind you!).
 
Quote from mickson:

essentially this account is my macro view with the odd short term trade included.

I sit with positions for months some times years and trade around the edges. This account is a continuation of a similar strategy I have traded for years with other brokerage accounts.

Overall my record has been good but my drawdowns are enormous. The problem I have found is that my macro views are often correct but usually years early (ouch).

Nobody would invest with me on the basis of this style of trading, but "it feels right". My biggest weakness is it has lacked some discipline and there is a high degree of bias within the strategy as I am a deep contrarian and will usually take more heart when I am losing than when I am winning. Prospect theory ring a bell?

Anyway the purpose of this journal is to rather stay a little bit more in tune with the drawdowns and general risk of the portfolio and rein it in a bit. I turned 40 last year so I guess I am starting to see a more responsible side to life. 40 was a big number for me. I feel like a kid in side but with a bit more life experience and a family to take care of I suddenly felt a life change come upon me. Chasing big $'s suddenly doesnt seem so important anymore.

Enjoy the weekend.
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If your looking for someone to check your biases against, at least in this case, I am very bullish. You could definitely stay short for the correction coming up though.
 
Thanks mate.

I have just finished reading Jeremy Granthams latest quarterly letter.
This guy is just pure sage, wow top draw.

Mike
 
Could this be the TOP? Wow that would be nice.

The problem I am having right now is how to get bigger without being a complete pig. I have managed to be quite controlled and not get ahead of myself up until now. The question is do I wait for more confirmation before loading up or do I let a few go in preparation and wear the volatility.

I think market action on Monday will help me determine. I am probably going to remain cautious. Remember I sharp pull back even if for a week or 3 will more than bring my equity curve above the benchmark. But will it bring it up enough to satisfy the current drawdown pain?


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question to the community.

I have noticed a lot of forums reporting users PnL; only report the closed PnL. I am mainly referring to the sites with a follow my trades type of angle.

My question is this seems highly misleading, some users/profiles are displaying enormous profits and high win loss ratio's mainly because they are not reporting their non-closed positions, would you agree with my observation?

The game here is to simply not close out losing positions and then you show the world how "great" you are.

I haven't done much viewing on the ET journal site, is this a common feature here?
 
Quote from mickson:

I have noticed a lot of forums reporting users PnL; only report the closed PnL. I am mainly referring to the sites with a follow my trades type of angle. My question is this seems highly misleading, some users/profiles are displaying enormous profits
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Any screengrab can be faked, of course, and should be judged only for its entertainment value. Instead, verifiable before-the-fact market calls -- perhaps posting at noon the trades to be entered/exited MOC that day -- would be bulletproof evidence.
 
This market still fails to pullback with any seriousness. Frustrating :(

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I have not done any further trades, choosing to still wait for confirmation that the pullback has begun.

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