Confessions Of A Rapa User Diary

I have noticed a slight anomaly in the daily PnL which is due to the timing of my post of yesterdays PnL, at least this is what I think is the cause. When I posted at 8:28am Sydney time on the 7th March the US markets had just closed at 8am Sydney time and my NAV reported was $92,815
2012-03-08_1043.png


However, according to my Activity Flex Query from the IB account management page the official NAV attributed to my account was $97,308. I have my theories and will wait until I pinpoint the exact reason before making a further statment on it.
Here you can see the result from using RAPA's import function of the XML flex query. (note: there is no tampering done here by the author, this is according to IB).
2012-03-08_1036.png


Finally my latest performance:
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As this is my journal, I am in the mood for posting a few charts, I often find this centers me. I look at probably a few 100 charts a day but somehow doing some work on one even just drawing a trend line makes it more impressionable on your psyche.

In this chart the A-Ords (Australian Index) is breaking down through the trend line. Also there is a non-confirmation with the recent highs in the US broad market. Kind of another Dow Theory non confirmation.

2012-03-08_1138.png
 
As I am short the Nasdaq and dare I say it, I have small short on AAPL that I slipped into the mix on the eve of the BIG announcement, I thought I would include an Elliott wave count from my favourite Elliottician: Daneric

ndx100.png
 
I notice that the E.T. time zones are incorrect, they are not accounting for daylight saving in Australia.

According to my profile posts they are currently 1hr behind the actual time. First time I have ever travelled into the future. I would imagine this is a great feature for people trying to post positions intraday and show how clever they are. :)

2012-03-09_0947.png
 
The grind higher continues, with quarter end a mere 2 weeks away one wonders whether this push higher will have legs or if locking in profits becomes the theme of the day :confused:

2012-03-13_1047.png
 
just something I am getting used to is posting my PnL in a public forum. I often feel like I need to come and justify my positions to the world or post for the sake of it, to keep it being read.

Some Current Thoughts:

It has felt like an eternity that I have been fighting the tape since 19 December 2011. That includes my PA account but mainly reflects the way the markets have been for me in the hedge fund. 2011 was a really good trading year for the fund, but the risk on trade saw high beta stocks outperform the more defensive lower betas'. I have essentially been on the exact opposite end of the trade so Jan/Feb was hard on the fund and me emotionally. March I am off to a good start, my rolling 1yr return is +9% after fees (2&20).

Markets are extremely complacent, we have enjoyed some positive economic data over the last 6 weeks, which are coincident or lagging indicators, leading indicators are less rosy. According to the current dataset of risk adjusted returns (Hussman methodology) all but 1.5% of the time these conditions have ended with sharp adjustments.

I am sticking with my bearish bias, it may however be short lived, the jury remains out on that one as I favour the Prez elections to game the market or at least try. The next European country Portgual most likely Spain will probably sink an already sinking EU. Message to self hold strong!!
 
I've got grievances with how this market is behaving as well and I've been long since late Nov. I've watched as the majority of the rally is concentrated/driven by the heavily weighted members of the various indices. The breadth just hasn't been there.

It is as if either everyone is just buying the index blindly, or there is some active manipulation to put lipstick on the widely followed indices. This is why I'm not a fan of weighted indices in gauging how a given market is moving.

At any rate I don't see huge compelling reasons to be net short (and rarely do), but there are certainly some reasons to be hedging in here.
 
A little more blood on the income statement. Btw none of this PnL attribution is unusual or alarming for this account or my trading style. I long time ago adopted a philosophy of asymmetrical returns.

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