It's OK to be in the market when it's going up.
Confessions Of A Rapa User Diary
- Thread starter mickson
- Start date
It's OK to be in the market when it's going up.
I have been doing this for a living for 10yrs at the end of this month.
Over the years I have picked up a few intuitive hints, this ain't scientific for those beings who haven't evolved along the spiritual spectrum, so take it from where it comes.
Usually when I become "uptight" for no apparent reason it is often a message that the market is about to reverse. I would place this indicator at about a 55% : 45% success rate +- 1 day from identifying the signal.
I only started putting the pieces together with this signal about 2 yrs ago. It is similar to my migraines. I have been suffering for 20yrs and only about 1 year ago did I develop the skill to realize when it was about to come. For those who don't suffer most people get an aura with their eyes. For almost 20yrs when the aura comes I think I have eye strain, only to be too late and miss treating the migraine before its onset. If I catch it early and treat it with a voltaren injection or imgraine nasal spray I can almost always avoid the headache and just deal with the hangover.
I feel myself sharing too much .................... :eek:
Over the years I have picked up a few intuitive hints, this ain't scientific for those beings who haven't evolved along the spiritual spectrum, so take it from where it comes.
Usually when I become "uptight" for no apparent reason it is often a message that the market is about to reverse. I would place this indicator at about a 55% : 45% success rate +- 1 day from identifying the signal.
I only started putting the pieces together with this signal about 2 yrs ago. It is similar to my migraines. I have been suffering for 20yrs and only about 1 year ago did I develop the skill to realize when it was about to come. For those who don't suffer most people get an aura with their eyes. For almost 20yrs when the aura comes I think I have eye strain, only to be too late and miss treating the migraine before its onset. If I catch it early and treat it with a voltaren injection or imgraine nasal spray I can almost always avoid the headache and just deal with the hangover.
I feel myself sharing too much .................... :eek:
Yes the level of self-awareness you have can make a big impact on your life outside of trading.
Fortunately I don't get migraines but I can get elevated stress levels/BP, anxiety attacks, etc from seemingly innocuous (to others) situations. I too took what now seems like an inordinate amount of time to mentally step back, monitor my own thoughts/physical indicators, and nip it in the bud.
For me, this is one of the few positive things (other than financial gain) that has come out of trading, because trading forced this point as it was a losing weakness previously. I had a one-track mind (emotions/physical responses and intellectual thoughts all wrapped up on one track, very chaotic in trading). Once I got to multi-track and had one track dedicated to monitoring all the other aspects, it was an enlightened moment.
This probably all sounds crazy to some other people, and maybe it is. I do find I am constantly talking to myself in my head, almost psychoanalyzing the rest of my thoughts on a continuous basis. Maybe this is what crazy people do.
See you reveal too much and other people start throwing their dirty laundry out there too...
Fortunately I don't get migraines but I can get elevated stress levels/BP, anxiety attacks, etc from seemingly innocuous (to others) situations. I too took what now seems like an inordinate amount of time to mentally step back, monitor my own thoughts/physical indicators, and nip it in the bud.
For me, this is one of the few positive things (other than financial gain) that has come out of trading, because trading forced this point as it was a losing weakness previously. I had a one-track mind (emotions/physical responses and intellectual thoughts all wrapped up on one track, very chaotic in trading). Once I got to multi-track and had one track dedicated to monitoring all the other aspects, it was an enlightened moment.
This probably all sounds crazy to some other people, and maybe it is. I do find I am constantly talking to myself in my head, almost psychoanalyzing the rest of my thoughts on a continuous basis. Maybe this is what crazy people do.
See you reveal too much and other people start throwing their dirty laundry out there too...
Self talk is a good thing keep it up.
I spent 7 yrs on the couch with a trading psychologist usually once a month.
In the early years my PnL was my complete self worth, when I lost I was terrible company and constantly felt vulnerable. Now it only accounts for 95% of my self worth - joke.
I have improved dramatically but us traders are never immune, if you choose a profession where your ability is 100% defined by your PnL then you are constantly exposed. If you cannot handle it change jobs, this is a brutal industry.
I spent 7 yrs on the couch with a trading psychologist usually once a month.
In the early years my PnL was my complete self worth, when I lost I was terrible company and constantly felt vulnerable. Now it only accounts for 95% of my self worth - joke.
I have improved dramatically but us traders are never immune, if you choose a profession where your ability is 100% defined by your PnL then you are constantly exposed. If you cannot handle it change jobs, this is a brutal industry.
I am really confused by the way IB have marked to market a set of my illiquid options.
On Thursday the 15th March they gave it the following value:
Then on Friday the 16th with a negligible change in the underlying they marked it at:
That is an $8,000 PnL swing, not too shabby on a tiny account like this.
One thing is for sure with 300 days left for this option to run it is very unlikely that the value is $0.
Any ideas what is happening? I would have thought IB would mark at theoretical values if there is no bid / ask which is normally what happens?
On Thursday the 15th March they gave it the following value:
Then on Friday the 16th with a negligible change in the underlying they marked it at:
That is an $8,000 PnL swing, not too shabby on a tiny account like this.
One thing is for sure with 300 days left for this option to run it is very unlikely that the value is $0.Any ideas what is happening? I would have thought IB would mark at theoretical values if there is no bid / ask which is normally what happens?
Today SRS lost value and the options now have a market value of $1,500 compared to $10 Friday. Part of the problem is based on the SRS share consolidation on 13 October 2011 (1:3) as these options were purchased before the consolidation the theoretical pricing is off a synthetic underlying price.
Anyway here is my latest PnL.
Anyway here is my latest PnL.
GL to you my friend in the coming months. Only two scenarios can play out from here in my mind. Either we tank or fly.