My forecast model is not opposed to that of Cristian's in that my numbers plot a zone of statistical resistance from 1.6777 up to 1.6938 UNLESS some type of monster momentum comes to bear on the pair, similar to that which came into play from June 20th to June 28th and August 2nd to August 18th.
Compare & Contrast with Christopher Lewis
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So, as it turns out, AUDJPY (my second guinea pig) is doing much better than GBPUSD, and given that the first pair hasn't really pulled back yet, not to mentioned the fact that my numbers suggested to me that the second pair could easily pull back below my initial entry level, I've decided to go ahead and pocket my gains here and then decide if I want to re-enter my long positions once they actually DO pull back.
A new one-hour configuration based on transposed numbers from daily charts suggests that perhaps I should not buy AUDJPY again until and unless it drops down to at least the 96.12 level, if at all, seeing as how the signals are overall bearish.
However, I have not yet compared and contrasted this new forecast model with the ones I was using over the weekend, so it remains for me to determine how they might be reconciled with one another, or even if they can be.
However, I have not yet compared and contrasted this new forecast model with the ones I was using over the weekend, so it remains for me to determine how they might be reconciled with one another, or even if they can be.
The task I was thinking about taking on (mentioned above) has now been completed, and the main thing I took away from the process is illustrated by the lower panel that appears in the daily chart below, which reflects the reconciled indicators in the main chart (which I've opted not to include in this display) and is that a GREAT time to enter positions is when the indigo histogram is on one side of the price anomaly channel and the black oscillator makes contact with the teal band on the opposite side of the price anomaly channel; and even if the oscillator merely crosses the midpoint, without ever reaching the teal band, it's still indicative of a justifiable trade.
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As for the debate over who is really in control at the intraday level, the twenty- or the forty-minute price flow, you're asking the wrong question. As a matter of fact, there really IS no question. The ONLY time you want to enter the market is when BOTH of them are flowing in the SAME direction; doing so following pullbacks to the opposite side of the 20-minute temporal support/resistance channel.
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However, be extremely cautious about doing so if price has entered the region defined by the 40-minute price flow channel at 0.20% to 0.40% deviation in that at these levels, there is an elevated probability of rates possibly being impacted by the influence of mean reversion/regression toward the mean.
This second lower-panel indicator (below) does not really introduce anything new in that it relies on the same measures, parameters and settings already introduced. It's sort of my version of an average directional index, suggesting when an asset might be embarking on a run backed up by above average momentum. However, it's not perfect, so as always, before acting on its signals one needs to confirm that they actually comport with reality.
Moreover, the indicator has a second function, with reversals between the upper (green) and lower (red) bands tending to mirror reversals in the principle actionable trend (but not always)...
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