Compare & Contrast with Christopher Lewis

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Now, while it's true that the blue and red 34-minute "core" conveys the overall general direction in which price is headed at the intraday level, it's also true that the bold black Bitumen Flow tracks the immediate general direction in which price is headed at the intraday level. Consequently, though you will typically want to be trading in the direction of the 34-minute measure(s), chances are that one of the ultimate hard and fast rules will be that: You NEVER trade against the slope of the Bitumen Flow.

It's likely that 70 minutes is more representative of the "overall general direction in which price is headed at the intraday level." But that the "Bitumen Flow tracks the immediate general direction in which price is headed at the intraday level" still holds true, except that in the image below, it is plotted as a red and pink Battenberg-like baseline instead of a bold black moving average.

Note that the 70-minute price range envelopes at 0.17% and 0.25% deviation tend to define the limits to which candlesticks are typically willing to separate themselves from their corresponding central tendency, so if these levels are selected as the strike prices for NADEX binary options, especially during pullbacks against the dominant trend, they are likely to constitute trades with a greater than average statistical probability of enjoying successful outcomes.

Take profit when candlesticks pull back into the gray (slower) dynamic duo cloud. (Plotting the second [faster] member of the dynamic duo does not really seem necessary.) Re-enter positions when the candlesticks resume painting on the side of the cloud corresponding with the direction of the slope of the 70-minute baseline—especially if the slope of the measure, as represented by the lower panel histogram, is greater than or less than the 0.0036 or -0.0036 threshold level respectively.

 

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Note that the 70-minute price range envelopes at 0.17% and 0.25% deviation tend to define the limits to which candlesticks are typically willing to separate themselves from their corresponding central tendency, so if these levels are selected as the strike prices for NADEX binary options, especially during pullbacks against the dominant trend, they are likely to constitute trades with a greater than average statistical probability of enjoying successful outcomes.

You regard NADEX five-minute (Forex) binary options as a joke, and while the NADEX 20-minute (US index) binary options are workable, the statistical odds of strike prices there being breached are still too much within the realm of, not possibility, but probability, to make it worth the effort in your opinion.

However, the back end of NADEX's two-hour (Forex) binary options (I have not evaluated the index version) remains under consideration, with the possibility of their being a viable instrument for trading IF done very, very strategically.

So, design charts using calculations based on the contention recorded in the above quote and observe how much the projected strike price levels repaint over the course of an hour.

Also, evaluate the profitability of trades made in your OANDA account that are entered on the back side of a sloping strike price central tendency baseline and exited if and when price crosses back over to the side aligned with the rates' overall trajectories.

 

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On a totally different note... when price action confines itself within the eight-minute SMA envelope at 0.04% deviation, it's a pretty good sign that the market is "dead..."

The ET contributor who goes by beginner66 brought this post back to may attention by liking it. And comparing what I wrote then with what I am doing now, I would say that price action is GOING to pretty much confine itself to the TEN-minute price range envelope at 0.04% deviation, regardless. Consequently, what I am MORE interested in is... IS the channel SLOPING/TRENDING or not? Answering this question can be assisted by observing two or three other indicators as well, and just a few minutes ago, I conducted a "mini-study" which suggested to me that it takes a minimum of 30 minutes to evaluate whether intraday price action is trending or range bound (i.e., in accumulation/consolidation).

(P.S. I no longer plot an eight-minute SMA envelope on my charts.)

 

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The ET contributor who goes by beginner66 brought this post back to may attention by liking it.

The contributor brought the following to my attention as well, and since my check to verify it tells me the observation was valid, I am reposting it here where I am recording many of my "final" conclusions so that I am less likely to overlook it if and when compiling my notes elsewhere/in the future.

 

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There's nothing else for me to do here, so I'm now writing my own personal instruction book on how to trade using NPP, complete with all the details and formulas I have opted to omit from this public site.

The difference between this book and the one I started (but will not be publishing) using Amazon's Kindle Direct is that this one is going to skip all the basic information that's already in my head and jump immediately to all the nitty-gritty.

 

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SWING TRADING

Swing trading foreign currency pairs is a tricky business that I've felt is better left alone due to the extreme difficulty (for me at least) of carrying it out profitably/successfully, thanks primarily to the helter-skelter nature of day-to-day price action in the Forex market.

However, in writing the instructional manual mentioned in Post #775, starting with monthly charts and a multi-year frame of reference and then working my way on down, a number of measures which were previously overlooked ended up presenting themselves as I got to the daily charts which I believe are likely to end up serving as keys to unlocking the "trick" to swing trading with much greater ease and efficiency!

Friday | November 10, 2023 | 7:00 PM PST

(I just now realized that this is taking place almost TWELVE years to the day that I began this journey in November of 2011.)

 

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A number of measures which were previously overlooked ended up presenting themselves as I got to the daily charts, which I believe are likely to end up serving as keys to unlocking the "trick" to swing trading with much greater ease and efficiency!

Of all the measures that stepped forward, I think this new "breakout indicator" (in the image below) might turn out to be my favorite.

 

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WHEN DO YOU EXPECT TO SEE THESE BULLISH PAIRS TURN SOUTH?

EURGBP - near, at or above 0.8753

EURJPY - it could do so at any time now, but this has been the case for the last four days, and thus far, every attempt to reverse direction has been a failure (it is very, very bullish)

GBPJPY - at, near or above 185.92, but I would much rather BUY this pair down around 182.65

USDCAD - way up at 1.3897

USDJPY - near, at or above 151.69


WHEN DO YOU EXPECT TO SEE THESE BEARISH PAIRS TURN NORTH?

AUDJPY - near, at or below 95.61

AUDUSD - near, at or below 0.6351

EURUSD - way down at 1.0511, and yet, it looked like it was trying to do so at the end of trading on Friday at 1.0684

GBPUSD - near, at or below 1.2135

USDCHF - near, at or below 0.8953, except that it tried to turn north on Wednesday, then tried to turn south on Thursday, and then tried to turn north again during the last two hours on Friday, so will it succeed at the start of this week?

 

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Of all the measures that stepped forward, I think this new "breakout indicator" (in the image below) might turn out to be my favorite.

I added an additional upper and lower band to suggest possible stop loss and take profit levels.

When the oscillator is below the center of the lower-panel price anomaly channel, the asset is considered bearish. Similarly, when the oscillator is above the center of the channel, the asset is considered bullish.

 

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I've added a "sawtooth" indicator to the original lower-panel oscillator to assist with the timing of purchases of NADEX binary option contracts.

Note that at Point A, the original oscillator is beginning a descent. This is a signal to watch for price to start coming down, even though the oscillator is still above the upper breakout level. Price does not begin to decline in reality until after the oscillator is back inside the channel, shortly after Point B.

Accordingly, at that point, I'm looking to enter short positions, even though the oscillator is still above the midpoint of the channel. The trigger for purchasing a put contract is when the jagged sawtooth oscillator spikes above the center of the channel. It does so once while the original oscillator is still in the top half of the channel, and then three more times after it has crawled below the channel (see the four red arrows between Points B and C).

At Point C, the original oscillator is beginning to climb again after falling below the lower breakout level. However, doing a visual check of the upper main chart reveals that price is still coming down in reality, so the spike at Point C constitutes a fifth trigger for purchasing a binary option put contract.

However, at Point D, even though the oscillator is still in the lower half of the channel, suggesting that the asset is still bearish, a glance at the main chart indicates otherwise. Consequently, a put contract should NOT be purchased at this point, which is why I did not insert a red arrow in that spot.