On one-minute charts, you're looking for bars on the 34-minute lower panel histogram to breach the 0.006 or -0.006 level.
Compare & Contrast with Christopher Lewis
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Sunday | November 5, 2023
Okay bro, these are all new thoughts, or at the very least, ones you are rearranging. In other words, whatever is written here needs to be confirmed and validated. But first of all, before you go to the office, look to buy yourself a 15-minute "hourglass" and/or an egg timer so you don't have to stare at a clock to avoid forgetting to check in on the markets when you "scheduled" yourself to do so.
Anyway, based on your checklist (in-progress) this might be a sensible overall strategy, especially in terms of catching the "big" moves…
IF the eight-hour price flow (on a fifteen-minute chart) is trending strongly, it looks as if the most profitable trades will be entered as the slope of the 34-minute baseline reverses direction, from a course opposed to the dominant trend to a trajectory aligned with it.
This is especially true if the direction of the three-hour price flow channels are already matched to that of the eight-hour measure(s). However, if this is not the case, you cannot wait for this condition to manifest, because reversals in the 34-minute price flow very often lead reversals of the three-hour stream/current within the eight-hour environment.
These 34-minute reversals can be confirmed by the 60-minute baseline. However, they can also be anticipated ahead of time by noticing if, after making contact with the "far" side of the 34-mintue price range envelopes at 0.10% and/or 0.15% deviation, the wicks or tails of the fifteen minute candlesticks cease to hit new highs or lows, as appropriate. (Actually, it's better to focus on your proprietary five-interval channel rather than the 34-minute envelopes.) Moreover, the fastest confirmation signal triggers when the instantaneous moving average crosses the center of the 34-minute envelopes (i.e., the 34-minute baseline).
Now... regarding profitable trades on a smaller scale, I'm thinking the setups probably offering the highest probability of leading to successful outcomes (especially in terms of trading the back end of NADEX two-hour binary option contracts) occur when the 34-minute AND 60-minute baselines are BOTH sloping in the same direction, particularly when there is a clearly discernible amount of space between them.
Under such condtions, the "launch pads" for entering these positions consist of the upper and lower bands of the 60-minute temporal support/resistance channel (as appropriate).
Good luck!.
Okay bro, these are all new thoughts, or at the very least, ones you are rearranging. In other words, whatever is written here needs to be confirmed and validated. But first of all, before you go to the office, look to buy yourself a 15-minute "hourglass" and/or an egg timer so you don't have to stare at a clock to avoid forgetting to check in on the markets when you "scheduled" yourself to do so.
Anyway, based on your checklist (in-progress) this might be a sensible overall strategy, especially in terms of catching the "big" moves…
IF the eight-hour price flow (on a fifteen-minute chart) is trending strongly, it looks as if the most profitable trades will be entered as the slope of the 34-minute baseline reverses direction, from a course opposed to the dominant trend to a trajectory aligned with it.
This is especially true if the direction of the three-hour price flow channels are already matched to that of the eight-hour measure(s). However, if this is not the case, you cannot wait for this condition to manifest, because reversals in the 34-minute price flow very often lead reversals of the three-hour stream/current within the eight-hour environment.
These 34-minute reversals can be confirmed by the 60-minute baseline. However, they can also be anticipated ahead of time by noticing if, after making contact with the "far" side of the 34-mintue price range envelopes at 0.10% and/or 0.15% deviation, the wicks or tails of the fifteen minute candlesticks cease to hit new highs or lows, as appropriate. (Actually, it's better to focus on your proprietary five-interval channel rather than the 34-minute envelopes.) Moreover, the fastest confirmation signal triggers when the instantaneous moving average crosses the center of the 34-minute envelopes (i.e., the 34-minute baseline).
Now... regarding profitable trades on a smaller scale, I'm thinking the setups probably offering the highest probability of leading to successful outcomes (especially in terms of trading the back end of NADEX two-hour binary option contracts) occur when the 34-minute AND 60-minute baselines are BOTH sloping in the same direction, particularly when there is a clearly discernible amount of space between them.
Under such condtions, the "launch pads" for entering these positions consist of the upper and lower bands of the 60-minute temporal support/resistance channel (as appropriate).
Good luck!.
Let’s get into the weeds, shall we?
Transitioning from the big moves down to the micro level, I'm going to make this easier on myself by referring to the three main groups of moving averages as the Emerald Path, the Golden-brick Road and the Bitumen Flow; and to all of them collectively as "the three amigos."
Now, while it's true that the blue and red 34-minute "core" conveys the overall general direction in which price is headed at the intraday level, it's also true that the bold black Bitumen Flow tracks the immediate general direction in which price is headed at the intraday level. Consequently, though you will typically want to be trading in the direction of the 34-minute measure(s), chances are that one of the ultimate hard and fast rules will be that: You NEVER trade against the slope of the Bitumen Flow.
Moreover, if the Emerald Path, Golden-brick Road and Bitumen Flow are sequenced in the "proper" order, then THAT is the direction in which you'll want to be trading.
Third… You do NOT want to be trading at all if price action is confined INSIDED the 34-minute core. And sure, near region A, the candlesticks DO exit to the exterior of the core. But, if that's your only justification for executing the trade (along with the fact that the three amigos are properly aligned), then you'd better be pretty darn fast, because there is a better than 50% chance that you're only going to get two to seven pip's worth of profit IF any at all!
Better you should wait until the 34-minute core starts to evidence an adequate amount of lift, or the effects of gravitational pull, before pulling the trigger, as illustrated in the area of region B, where the purple lower-panel 34-minute histogram has exceeded the threshold level, candlesticks have breached the 34-minute price flow envelope at 0.10% deviation, and the Donchian Channel is starting to stair-step upward. Yes, this means you will initially miss the first seven to 14 pips of the leg up or down, but if the asset has truly initiated a run, then you will have plenty of opportunity to collect profit from that point on.
Pocket your gains near region C. Why? Because it's here that the Emarald Path ducks under the Golden-brick Road. Do not sell the pair though, because the Bitumen Flow has not yet reversed direction, and candlesticks have not crossed to the downside of the 34-minute core. In fact, you’ll want to re-enter a long position as soon as the Emeral Path pops back out above the Golden-brick Road once again.
So, when do you reverse direction and head south? You CAN do so as soon the Bitumen Flow is hooking downward and the three amigos are properly aligned in that same direction. It is safer however to wait until candlesticks are painting beneath the underside of the 34-minute core. And if you want to be REALLY conservative, you can hold off until you get confirmation from the (lagging) green and white 60-minute baseline. If you do though, you're only going to get in on the very tail end in of the leg downward.
What you CAN do if you miss the initial turn south is sell the pair as the Emerald Path crosses below the Golden-brick Road in the area of region D. (Had you already been in the trade, you would have pocketed your gains as soon as the Emerald Path ducked up inside the other two amigos.)
Would you sill be short immediately (just) before the area of region E, seeing as how the 34-minute core is still angled south? No, because the Emerald Path hooked upward into its other two buddies AND you NEVER trade against the slope of the Bitumen Flow. So then, should you buy in this region. Well, you COULD because the three amigos are thus aligned—however, candlesticks do not exit the upper band of the 34-minute core to the exterior of the channel until a bit later, so whether to be aggressive and buy right away, or act prudently and wait for confirmation is a discretionary decision.
What is NOT discretionary however is that you need to get out with profit (or at break-even if you decided to be conservative and wait for candlesticks to exit the core before buying the asset) soon after, because the Emerald Road dips under the Golden-brick Road AND the Bitumen Flow begins to roll over AND the green and white 60-minute baseline is STILL bearish.
(If you're being aggressive, you're going to sell as soon as all this happens. If you're being conservative, you're going to wait until candlesticks exit to the lower exterior of the 34-minute core.)
Transitioning from the big moves down to the micro level, I'm going to make this easier on myself by referring to the three main groups of moving averages as the Emerald Path, the Golden-brick Road and the Bitumen Flow; and to all of them collectively as "the three amigos."
Now, while it's true that the blue and red 34-minute "core" conveys the overall general direction in which price is headed at the intraday level, it's also true that the bold black Bitumen Flow tracks the immediate general direction in which price is headed at the intraday level. Consequently, though you will typically want to be trading in the direction of the 34-minute measure(s), chances are that one of the ultimate hard and fast rules will be that: You NEVER trade against the slope of the Bitumen Flow.
Moreover, if the Emerald Path, Golden-brick Road and Bitumen Flow are sequenced in the "proper" order, then THAT is the direction in which you'll want to be trading.
Third… You do NOT want to be trading at all if price action is confined INSIDED the 34-minute core. And sure, near region A, the candlesticks DO exit to the exterior of the core. But, if that's your only justification for executing the trade (along with the fact that the three amigos are properly aligned), then you'd better be pretty darn fast, because there is a better than 50% chance that you're only going to get two to seven pip's worth of profit IF any at all!
Better you should wait until the 34-minute core starts to evidence an adequate amount of lift, or the effects of gravitational pull, before pulling the trigger, as illustrated in the area of region B, where the purple lower-panel 34-minute histogram has exceeded the threshold level, candlesticks have breached the 34-minute price flow envelope at 0.10% deviation, and the Donchian Channel is starting to stair-step upward. Yes, this means you will initially miss the first seven to 14 pips of the leg up or down, but if the asset has truly initiated a run, then you will have plenty of opportunity to collect profit from that point on.
Pocket your gains near region C. Why? Because it's here that the Emarald Path ducks under the Golden-brick Road. Do not sell the pair though, because the Bitumen Flow has not yet reversed direction, and candlesticks have not crossed to the downside of the 34-minute core. In fact, you’ll want to re-enter a long position as soon as the Emeral Path pops back out above the Golden-brick Road once again.
So, when do you reverse direction and head south? You CAN do so as soon the Bitumen Flow is hooking downward and the three amigos are properly aligned in that same direction. It is safer however to wait until candlesticks are painting beneath the underside of the 34-minute core. And if you want to be REALLY conservative, you can hold off until you get confirmation from the (lagging) green and white 60-minute baseline. If you do though, you're only going to get in on the very tail end in of the leg downward.
What you CAN do if you miss the initial turn south is sell the pair as the Emerald Path crosses below the Golden-brick Road in the area of region D. (Had you already been in the trade, you would have pocketed your gains as soon as the Emerald Path ducked up inside the other two amigos.)
Would you sill be short immediately (just) before the area of region E, seeing as how the 34-minute core is still angled south? No, because the Emerald Path hooked upward into its other two buddies AND you NEVER trade against the slope of the Bitumen Flow. So then, should you buy in this region. Well, you COULD because the three amigos are thus aligned—however, candlesticks do not exit the upper band of the 34-minute core to the exterior of the channel until a bit later, so whether to be aggressive and buy right away, or act prudently and wait for confirmation is a discretionary decision.
What is NOT discretionary however is that you need to get out with profit (or at break-even if you decided to be conservative and wait for candlesticks to exit the core before buying the asset) soon after, because the Emerald Road dips under the Golden-brick Road AND the Bitumen Flow begins to roll over AND the green and white 60-minute baseline is STILL bearish.
(If you're being aggressive, you're going to sell as soon as all this happens. If you're being conservative, you're going to wait until candlesticks exit to the lower exterior of the 34-minute core.)
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When both the 34- and 60-minute price flow channels are trending well, it appears that typically price will not pull back MORE than than the 0.10% deviation level in the case of the first measure or 0.04% deviation in the case of the second.
If price DOES pull back past the 0.04% deviation level of the 60-minute price flow, then chances are that your are looking at the beginning of a fully-fledged reversal in the intraday trend.
(Of course, you have a reversal in the immediate or short-term trend when you have a reversal in the sequenctial order of the "three amigos.")
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This made me currious... If likely reversals in the intraday trend are signaled by candlesticks crossing to the opposite side of the 60-minute price flow channel at the 0.04% deviation level, what signals reversals in the three-hour trend?
After investigating this question, I concluded that the answer is kind of fuzzy. It's when candlesticks switch from spending the predominance of their time on one side of the three-hour baseline to hanging out the vast majority of the time on the other side. If price spends more-or-less equal time crossing from one side to the other, the trend will be neutral. If candlesticks are pretty much relegated to the upper or lower zone between 0.10% to 0.30% deviation, the trend (or trend reversal) will be obvious. (If price breaches the 0.30% deviation level and doesn't look back, there is probably some type of of economic data release that is driving such monster momentum.)
damn it! Stop comparing and contrasting with Christopher Lewis for 6 long years!
If you don't make radical change, you will be comparing and contrasting with Christopher Lewis for the next thousand years.
Go develop your own holy grail, and get on with your own life!!!
_______
Christopher John Lewis
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Christopher John Lewis
Born 7 September 1964
Dunedin, New Zealand
Died 23 September 1997 (aged 33)
Mount Eden Prison, Auckland
Cause of death Suicide by electrocution
Nationality New Zealand
Known for Attempted assassination of Queen Elizabeth II
Christopher John Lewis (7 September 1964 – 23 September 1997) was a New Zealand criminal who made an unsuccessful attempt to assassinate Queen Elizabeth II in 1981. He planned later attempts at assassinating other British royal family members but was kept away from them by the authorities in New Zealand.
In 1997, he was charged with the murder of Tania Furlan and the kidnapping of her daughter, though a friend was found to be responsible. He killed himself before he could be brought to trial.
_________________________
If you don't make radical change, you will be comparing and contrasting with Christopher Lewis for the next thousand years.
Go develop your own holy grail, and get on with your own life!!!
_______
Christopher John Lewis
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Christopher John Lewis
Born 7 September 1964
Dunedin, New Zealand
Died 23 September 1997 (aged 33)
Mount Eden Prison, Auckland
Cause of death Suicide by electrocution
Nationality New Zealand
Known for Attempted assassination of Queen Elizabeth II
Christopher John Lewis (7 September 1964 – 23 September 1997) was a New Zealand criminal who made an unsuccessful attempt to assassinate Queen Elizabeth II in 1981. He planned later attempts at assassinating other British royal family members but was kept away from them by the authorities in New Zealand.
In 1997, he was charged with the murder of Tania Furlan and the kidnapping of her daughter, though a friend was found to be responsible. He killed himself before he could be brought to trial.
_________________________
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LEARN YOUR LESSON
You figured here (at the green arrow) was a good time to purchase a NADEX binary call option, because candlesticks had just bounced off a 24-minute temporal support level, the three amigos had just reversed their sequential alignment from bearish to bullish, and price was crossing the center of the 34-minute price flow channel...
Note however that the rate took another dip, stopping you out of your long (OANDA) position. Fortunately, you entered on the front end rather than the back end of the NADEX binary call contract, which left enough time for price action to fully unfold so that the final outcome of the option was in your favor.
Nonetheless, the point of this lesson is that if you believe the intraday trend to be reversing direction, do not act on that belief following reversals in the three amigos UNTIL AND UNLESS the maneuver has been preceded by a reversal in the 34-minute price flow FIRST.
That way, any subsequent pullbacks are likely to be higher than the one that triggered your trade (or lower in the case of short positions), thereby minimizing the chances of you being stopped out of your position(s).
You figured here (at the green arrow) was a good time to purchase a NADEX binary call option, because candlesticks had just bounced off a 24-minute temporal support level, the three amigos had just reversed their sequential alignment from bearish to bullish, and price was crossing the center of the 34-minute price flow channel...
Note however that the rate took another dip, stopping you out of your long (OANDA) position. Fortunately, you entered on the front end rather than the back end of the NADEX binary call contract, which left enough time for price action to fully unfold so that the final outcome of the option was in your favor.
Nonetheless, the point of this lesson is that if you believe the intraday trend to be reversing direction, do not act on that belief following reversals in the three amigos UNTIL AND UNLESS the maneuver has been preceded by a reversal in the 34-minute price flow FIRST.
That way, any subsequent pullbacks are likely to be higher than the one that triggered your trade (or lower in the case of short positions), thereby minimizing the chances of you being stopped out of your position(s).
Well now, would you look at this!
Even AFTER the 34-minute price flow began turning upward (at the yellow arrow) the general overall intraday trend was not REALLY turning north with an honest, genuine, bona fide, fully-fledged bullish reversal.
So, what am I to make of this? Of course, first of all, a change in direction was never confirmed by a reversal in the sequential order of the three amigos. Had this been the case, there would have been the formation of a "reversed head and shoulders" pattern (if that's what it's called). So for one thing, I will always be looking for a right shoulder (or right reversed shoulder) on the other side of the maneuver—a shoulder formed by the third reversal in the ebb and flow of the amigos.
But, let's see what I can learn if I pull back and take a look at longer-time-frame charts...
This little section of price action where the 34-minute price flow kept waffling up and down suggests to me that if the 34-minute core at 0.04% deviation fails to pop out above or below the 60-minute core at 0.07% deviation, then I probably am NOT looking at a very significant fluctuation in price, certainly not a fully-fledged reversal in the general overall trajectory of the intraday trend.
The corresponding chart is pretty basic and appears to recommend I not even bother trading unless the slope of the hourly baseline (as represented by the lower panel histogram) has made contact with the 0.1012 or -0.1012 level; or better yet, the 0.1267 or -0.1267 level.
Even then (if trading during such periods) I had still better be consulting one-minute charts, and switching the direction of my positions as soon as the three amigos switch the direction of their alignment; or at the very least, remaining on the sidelines whenever the slope of the amigos is contrary to the slope of the 60- (and 34-) minute baseline(s).
Even AFTER the 34-minute price flow began turning upward (at the yellow arrow) the general overall intraday trend was not REALLY turning north with an honest, genuine, bona fide, fully-fledged bullish reversal.
So, what am I to make of this? Of course, first of all, a change in direction was never confirmed by a reversal in the sequential order of the three amigos. Had this been the case, there would have been the formation of a "reversed head and shoulders" pattern (if that's what it's called). So for one thing, I will always be looking for a right shoulder (or right reversed shoulder) on the other side of the maneuver—a shoulder formed by the third reversal in the ebb and flow of the amigos.
But, let's see what I can learn if I pull back and take a look at longer-time-frame charts...
This little section of price action where the 34-minute price flow kept waffling up and down suggests to me that if the 34-minute core at 0.04% deviation fails to pop out above or below the 60-minute core at 0.07% deviation, then I probably am NOT looking at a very significant fluctuation in price, certainly not a fully-fledged reversal in the general overall trajectory of the intraday trend.
The corresponding chart is pretty basic and appears to recommend I not even bother trading unless the slope of the hourly baseline (as represented by the lower panel histogram) has made contact with the 0.1012 or -0.1012 level; or better yet, the 0.1267 or -0.1267 level.
Even then (if trading during such periods) I had still better be consulting one-minute charts, and switching the direction of my positions as soon as the three amigos switch the direction of their alignment; or at the very least, remaining on the sidelines whenever the slope of the amigos is contrary to the slope of the 60- (and 34-) minute baseline(s).