USDJPY has made contact with 138.83 three times in the last four hours, but has yet to actually close above this barrier.
Compare & Contrast with Christopher Lewis
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Following up on the ideas expressed in Post #640... after evaluating my one and only remaining 30-minute chart configuration in light of the primary settings and parameters I settled on over the last couple of weeks, I've come to the following conclusions:
In terms of where you ultimately expect to see price go at the intraday level, at least from the perspective of the most immediate "actionable" signals, you are looking at the two-hour baseline, or actually, based on your 30-minute chart configuration, it's a two-hour-and-thirty-four-minute baseline.
This trajectory is verified or confirmed by the slower four-hour baseline along with the five-, eight- and 13-hour price range envelopes, with the 18½-hour and two-day price range envelopes tracking the day-to-day price flow.
With this is mind, you could have anticipated USDJPY breaking to the down side given that the two-hour baseline was neutral, and then saw price action fall below it.
However, as of the end of trading on Friday, the two-hour baseline is now headed north, along with the four-hour baseline, not to mention the five-, eight- and 13-hour price range envelopes. Accordingly, I should now anticipated that the pair will finally break above the 138.83 resistance level, probably pulling the lagging 18½-hour and two-day price range envelopes north with it.
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Last week, when it came to live trading, you basically ignored your notes from Post #640. So next week, see if you're more apt to actually use these directions stemming from the 15-minute chart setup that fused your one-and-only remaining 30-minute chart with what are now your standard settings and parameters (not pictured).
In other words, when day-to-day price flow is headed south, enter short positions as price is coming out of drawbacks highlighted by the lower-panel price anomaly channel oscillator having breached the upper threshold of the proprietary dynamic/adaptable one-hour price range envelope indicator at the 0.785 level.
Conversely, when day-to-day price flow is headed north, enter long positions as price is coming out of pullbacks highlighted by the lower-panel price anomaly channel oscillator having violated the lower threshold of the proprietary dynamic/adaptable one-hour price range envelope indicator at the 0.215 level.
In other words, when day-to-day price flow is headed south, enter short positions as price is coming out of drawbacks highlighted by the lower-panel price anomaly channel oscillator having breached the upper threshold of the proprietary dynamic/adaptable one-hour price range envelope indicator at the 0.785 level.
Conversely, when day-to-day price flow is headed north, enter long positions as price is coming out of pullbacks highlighted by the lower-panel price anomaly channel oscillator having violated the lower threshold of the proprietary dynamic/adaptable one-hour price range envelope indicator at the 0.215 level.
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As Friday's New York session came to an end, it was looking as if AUDJPY’s two-day hiatus from the downward slide it initiated on July 5, 2023 might be coming to an end. So, for the time being, I will be looking to sell following what I trust will be temporary trips to the upside of the five-hour price range envelope IF and when price is also bouncing off the upper band of the one-hour channel. (EURUSD has a similar look, except that it turned north about five days ago.)
Since AUDUSD has already seen its two-, four-, five- and eight-hour measures turn over, my plan is to sell following pullbacks to the upside of the one-hour price range envelope, but ONLY so long as the two-hour measure remains bearish. (GBPUSD is in a similar situation.)
EURJPY remains a buy candidate.
EURGBP is a mess. Though it was bullish as of Friday's close, I think it would be wise to stay away from this pair so long as it continues to move so erratically.
GBPJPY turned north on Thursday.
USDCAD turned bullish right at the end of last week. I need to keep an eye on this pair to confirm whether this move is truly genuine.
I also need to watch USDCHF to determine if the six-day course it traversed to the downside might be coming to an end. In the meantime, I will be looking for buying opportunities so long as its intermediate measures remain bullish. (USDJPY is in a similar situation.)
You (I) need to keep your (my) eyes on USDJPY over the next couple of (or few) days to confirm or verify whether the slide south that the US dollar-Japanese yen initiated somewhere around July 6, 2023 truly came to an end on Friday (July 14th).
By the way, there are a number of pairs where the two-day price flow is in conflict with the day-to-day baseline, so you need to closely following ALL of then to ascertain just exactly which has prevailed and when.
By the way, there are a number of pairs where the two-day price flow is in conflict with the day-to-day baseline, so you need to closely following ALL of then to ascertain just exactly which has prevailed and when.
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AUDUSD has made contact with support in the form of the inner lower band of the two-day price flow channel. However, the outer band is down at 0.6661. Moreover, the pair breached the inner upper band of the envelope on July 12th, then continued to climb to breach the outer upper band on July 13th, and didn't elect to finally turn south until halfway through the next day, so there is no guaranty the pair will turn around anytime soon.
On the other hand, the two-day price flow has remained bullish the whole time, so theoretically, there should be more pressure on price to turn north than there was for it to turn south. In any event, i will be watching for a trigger signal today and into next week, at which point, I hope to buy into a long position for what I hope will be an extended run north.
On the other hand, the two-day price flow has remained bullish the whole time, so theoretically, there should be more pressure on price to turn north than there was for it to turn south. In any event, i will be watching for a trigger signal today and into next week, at which point, I hope to buy into a long position for what I hope will be an extended run north.
AUDUSD has also reached the six day temporal support level. However, the four-day statistical support region is down between 0.6577 and 0.6615 (46 pips below the outer lower band of the two-day price flow envelope).
As trading on Friday came to a close, I made three final trades which provided me with a bit of insight. Though my recent foray into the "breaking new ground" style of longer-term trading described in another thread led to my most profitable day at Tradiac thus far, I feel like the last three trades on Friday are pushing me to return to my roots, where I was day trading with an 85% to 100% daily success rate.
I think I can return to that same methodology now with an even clearer picture of exactly what I'm doing. If so, as I gain even greater facility with the approach, I can increase my stake per trade from 0.03 lots up to 0.1 and then continue in that same vein until I am trading 1 whole lot per position (provided I am, and continue to be, successful). The massive (for me) size of my positions in conjunction with the shorter-term, but much more numerous profitable transactions ought to accelerated the rate at which I'm able to qualify for funding (if I can).
My plan can be summarized quite easily...trade in the direction recommended by a consensus of the 20- through 40-minute moving averages, using the 20- and 70-minute temporal support and resistance levels as launch pads and landing sites.
I think I can return to that same methodology now with an even clearer picture of exactly what I'm doing. If so, as I gain even greater facility with the approach, I can increase my stake per trade from 0.03 lots up to 0.1 and then continue in that same vein until I am trading 1 whole lot per position (provided I am, and continue to be, successful). The massive (for me) size of my positions in conjunction with the shorter-term, but much more numerous profitable transactions ought to accelerated the rate at which I'm able to qualify for funding (if I can).
My plan can be summarized quite easily...trade in the direction recommended by a consensus of the 20- through 40-minute moving averages, using the 20- and 70-minute temporal support and resistance levels as launch pads and landing sites.
Who is headed south from month to month?
- AUDUSD (it is also been falling from year to year since 2021)
- EURGBP (it has been more-or-less range bound year to year since 2016)
- USDCAD (it has been pretty much range bound for almost a year)
- USDCHF (it reversed direction in November of last year)
Who is headed north from month to month?
- AUDJPY (it has been rising from year to year since 2020)
- EURJPY (it has also been rising year to year since 2020)
- EURUSD (it reversed direction in November of last year)
- GBPJPY is has also been climbing year to year since 2020)
- GBPUSD (it reversed direction in November of last year)
- USDJPY
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