Compare & Contrast with Christopher Lewis

[expiated]

Of the bearish foreign currency pairs listed above, are any of them ALSO headed south from week to week?

• Yes, USDCHF, however, it is at the BOTTOM of the projected monthly price range.

Of the bullish foreign currency pairs listed above, are any of them ALSO headed north from week to week?

• Yes, EURUSD, however, it is near the top of the projected monthly price range. Last week, if formed a red candlestick, so next week, it might very well resume a northbound trajectory.
• Yes, GBPUSD. It is in the exact same situation as EURUSD.
• Even though USDJPY is headed south from week to week, it formed a green candlestick last week, so it might be in the initial stages of changing direction, and therefore could continue to head north next week as well (or not).

 

[expiated]

The above observations are all well and good, but they are not what one might call "actionable" from a daily perspective. So then, when you look over everything you've written during the last five years, what should guide your attempts to catch the "big" intraday moves?

Well, first of all, the 24-hour baseline is too "slow" to be a valid and reliable measure for distinguishing where rates are headed from day to day. For this, you need to look to the eight- through 13-hour measures.

And for the gist of intraday flow—the general directional tendency of price hour-by-hour—the "fastest" measures that aren't characterized by frequent deceptive fluctuations are the two-hour (to 2½-hour) baselines and envelopes.

So, to catch the "big" intaday moves, offhand, I'd say you'd want to shoot for entry levels on the "backside" of a sloping...like...ten-hour baseline, and/or as the two-hour measures reverse direction from a course contrary to the ten-hour baseline to a trajectory that is in sync with it, and/or when candlesticks are coming out of pullbacks to the "far" side of the two-hour price range envelope when it is angled in the same direction as a trending ten-hour baseline.

(This would be on 15-minute charts.)

My plan can be summarized quite easily...trade in the direction recommended by a consensus of the 20- through 40-minute moving averages, using the 20- and 70-minute temporal support and resistance levels as launch pads and landing sites.

So, how would the above fit into what you wrote at the top of this post?

I'd say you would be looking for price to pull back to the 30- (instead of 20-) and/or 70-minute temporal support or resistance (as appropriate) levels when the 34-minute, 2-hour and 2½-hour (the "fanning") baselines are properly aligned.

Practically speaking however, a 15-minute chart lacks the precision to trade this plan efficiently, so you would have to be simultaneously referencing your one-minute chart setup.

 

[expiated]

My plan can be summarized quite easily...trade in the direction recommended by a consensus of the 20- through 40-minute moving averages, using the 20- and 70-minute temporal support and resistance levels as launch pads and landing sites.

Also, in more volatile markets, I should also use statistical support and resistance levels in the form of the inner-upper and inner-lower bands of the 34-minute price range envelope at 0.14% deviation.

 

[expiated]

EURUSD is displaying bullish 40-, 12- and four-day price flows. This suggests that if and when the day-to-day trend decides to turn north, the pair could be in for quite a ride.

This is even truer for GBPUSD, and the exact opposite is true of USDCHF.

 

[expiated]

Well, first of all, the 24-hour baseline is too "slow" to be a valid and reliable measure for distinguishing where rates are headed from day to day. For this, you need to look to the eight- through 13-hour measures.

Hmmmm...not really. Yes, the 24-hour baseline IS too "slow" to be a valid and reliable measure for distinguishing where rates are headed from day to day, but the 16-hour price range envelope at 0.45% to 0.85% deviation is not.

The above tactic might work, but to implement it, I would probably have to be monitoring my charts steadily, which I am not. What IS working however is waiting for price to pull back to the "far" side of the of the above (16-hour) envelope(s) simultaneously with the contrary side of the eight-hour price range envelope at 0.25% deviation; with it being even better if this also coincides with the contrary side of the four-hour price range envelope at 0.35% deviation.

A conservative profit target would be the opposite side of the eight hour measure, with a more ambitious goal being the closer band of the 16-hour measures.

So, to catch the "big" intaday moves, offhand, I'd say you'd want to shoot for entry levels on the "backside" of a sloping...like...ten-hour baseline, and/or as the two-hour measures reverse direction from a course contrary to the ten-hour baseline to a trajectory that is in sync with it, and/or when candlesticks are coming out of pullbacks to the "far" side of the two-hour price range envelope when it is angled in the same direction as a trending ten-hour baseline.

Actually, as I was just saying, a more practical/workable approach would be to use the one described above, on hourly charts, which paint the bigger picture and offer a broader view of the markets, rather than 15-minute charts.

And instead of looking for reversals in the ten-hour baseline, you're looking to the boundaries of the eight-hour price range envelope for entry and exit levels. As for whether reversals in the two-hour baseline would make a valid trigger signal, you need to evaluate this possibility. (The 34- and 60-minute baselines are definitely too unstable [too sensitive to the fluctuations of temporary price action, making them prone to head fakes and false positives] to be trusted in this capacity.)

 

[expiated]

As trading on Friday came to a close, I made three final trades which provided me with a bit of insight. Though my recent foray into the "breaking new ground" style of longer-term trading described in another thread led to my most profitable day at Tradiac thus far, I feel like the last three trades on Friday are pushing me to return to my roots, where I was day trading with an 85% to 100% daily success rate.

Today's results suggest I might indeed be returning to my days of realizing an 80% to 100% daily success rate, but it is not the result of going back to my roots.

Rather, after reviewing everything from the monthly chart configurations to the one-minute chart setups I've opted to save (as opposed to delete) over the last five years, I might have arrived at, what for me, is the optimal middle ground, as described in Post #665.

 

[expiated]

I have no qualms with Cristian's daily call from Friday, except to say it appears to me that a reversal confirmation might be several days away given how the pair has yet to demonstrate any hesitation whatsoever in continuing to climb north.

For me, the reversal confirmation came on the next day, July 17, 2023. As of today however, I would have taken profit had I not done so already, given that NZDCAD dropped down into the two-day support level when it entered the region between 0.8121 and 0.8188, with the ten-hour price flow now transitioning to bullish (a sign to pocket my gains).

 

[expiated]

I waited this entire 24-hour market cycle (though technically, it isn't actually over yet) for AUDUSD to turn south, which it never did. So, if it climbs higher than 0.6808, I'm going to have to conclude there is a greater than 50% statistical possibility (but no guaranty) that the pair might be in the initial stages of a fully-fledged turn to the north.

 

[expiated]

This is even truer for GBPUSD.

I don't see the Cable-US dollar hitting "major" support until down around 1.2605. Nonetheless, it has made its way to the "far" side of a bullish four-day price flow channel, not to mention the inner-base of the two-day price range envelope, and today it formed a green candlestick so that I have to at least entertain the possibility that it could be initiating the beginning of a potentially profitable extended run north. (The prudent thing to do here, however, would be to wait for at least a little bit of confirmation in the form of an upswing in the ten-hour price flow channel.)

It looks to me like it might also currently be at what is perhaps a general support-turned-resistance level.

USDCHF is in the exact opposite situation, except that it is not sitting near the inner-ceiling of the two-day price range envelope, and it's ten-hour price flow channel HAS just bent south, offering permission to go ahead and enter a short position (though I should probably wait until candlesticks bounce off the back side of the 70-minute temporal support/resistance channel).

 

[expiated]

I waited this entire 24-hour market cycle (though technically, it isn't actually over yet) for AUDUSD to turn south, which it never did. So, if it climbs higher than 0.6808, I'm going to have to conclude there is a greater than 50% statistical possibility (but no guaranty) that the pair might be in the initial stages of a fully-fledged turn to the north.

Why might AUDUSD be turning north?

Well, because the 40-day price flow is neutral. The 12-day price flow is almost the same, except that it is just slightly bullish, and the four-day price flow is definitely bullish, with price having dropped below a northbound four-day baseline on Friday, thus being the possible source of bullish pressure.

IF the pair genuinely IS headed north now, 0.6893, the first level of four-day statistical resistance, would not be an unreasonable take-profit target; with the present location of 40-hour temporal resistance at 0.6846 being an even more conservative goal.

But, as I look at these levels, 0.6877 might make a better ambitious destination given that this is the location of past resistance; and 0.6813 could make a better conservative aim, seeing as how this is a zone of past congestion.

Where price is now looks to be a past support, turn resistance, turn support, turn resistance, etc., level.