Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from csaunders:

Yeah this market has me a bit bafoozled - I'm still expecting my correction although if one looks back in history the EUR at times has strengthened quite dramatically without even a sniff of a decent correction.

There is alot of factors at play at the moments - the French no vote - closeness of key US data - NFP and of course trend line support.

I'd say at this point risk for a move up outweighs the down...
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Yeah, closed out at 27 before #. gtg now anyway :)
 
Quote from TradingWise:

You expect good US #, and you take on a long position? :confused:
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I like to torment myself. :D

No, seriously, I didn't actually say that I expected a good US GDP #.

I think I indicated that a good # must be expected, with a question mark.

That was in relation to the market tanking prior to the announcement.

I sure hope I hit my 100-p TP. :)

If I do it'll probably be on a pure ghost drift, though extreme.

s
 
CS - market's squaring ahead of the long weekend and the vote. If the frogs nix the vote, expect a bad feeling come market open on Tuesday. If they do not, expect a correction to come for a bit. Overall, long term is still biased towards dollar bulls. Keep in mind the following statement from Thompson, though -

"EUR/USD remains poised above key technical support at 1.2490, 61.8% of 1.1760-1.3660. There are stops below but dealers also report option based and real money buyers ahead of option barriers at 1.2475 and 1.2460, a trend high in July '04 and regarded by many as a major pivot point. "

The pivot point concerns me, and is why I will not take a position at this point without an extremely tight stop.

Cheers.

-Ivan
 
Quote from trendtrader9:

Is this buy the rumour, sell the fact so to spk ?

Mkt worrying itself down to a "No" vote in advance - is the world short already ?


:confused:
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The "no" is heavily priced in already.
 
Quote from Andy62279:

anyone know if market is open regular time next week, or closed for memorial holiday?
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Forex is traded throughout the world. Not everyone celebrates the US Memorial Day.

Therefore: The FOREX market will be open normal times, but rather lightly traded.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

CS - market's squaring ahead of the long weekend and the vote. If the frogs nix the vote, expect a bad feeling come market open on Tuesday. If they do not, expect a correction to come for a bit. Overall, long term is still biased towards dollar bulls. Keep in mind the following statement from Thompson, though -

"EUR/USD remains poised above key technical support at 1.2490, 61.8% of 1.1760-1.3660. There are stops below but dealers also report option based and real money buyers ahead of option barriers at 1.2475 and 1.2460, a trend high in July '04 and regarded by many as a major pivot point. "

The pivot point concerns me, and is why I will not take a position at this point without an extremely tight stop.

Cheers.

-Ivan
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Hi Ivan - I'm not so sure the French vote will have large impact - either way I think it will be EUR positive - as you said elsewhere well priced in anyway.

Next week should be a hunt for those short the EUR before NFP breaks Fri.

If EUR does break 1.26 we should see 1.27-2730 where I can finally try and add to my EURUSD shorts. Although willl have to watch carefully... it might probe higher still.

Have a "lekker" weekend
 
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