Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from Ivanovich:

well, wtf?? I see ZERO-impact.

and I don't think I'm seeing things.

fxs
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Well look a bit closer then, or get new glasses. The EUR opened at 1.2580 after staging a short covering comeback late Friday (instead of dropping heavily like it had the last few Fridays). Now it's flirting with breaching 1.2510. a 60 or so pip drop since opening is not what I'd call ZERO. It's SIXTY.

Maybe they count different where you're from.
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*stomps his foot* five, six, seven, eight....

Maybe they use a different chart where you're from but the price already broke 1.2500 last Thursday WAY before the EU vote noise blew in.

If the euro/France "No" gig had any impact we'd be sitting well under 1.2400.

Look closely. (Hint: We're not.)

My E/U shorts are still bleeding, and I'm scalping AUD/USD longs.

Says a lot.

Besides that, USD/JPY is heading one-way: down. If there's a mass exodus out of the euro happening, the money sure ain't goin' into the USD.

Maybe it's all being shifted into pork bellies.

*BUSTS UP LAUGHING*

fx
 
Quote from sKaLpZ:


Maybe they use a different chart where you're from but the price already broke 1.2500 last Thursday WAY before the EU vote noise blew in...

... If there's a mass exodus out of the euro happening, the money sure ain't goin' into the USD.

fx
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That's my point entirely. I know the EUR broke 1.25 last week. That was a dollar rally. THIS, however, is a EUR fall, and not a dollar rally. Look at your EUR crosses. As you say, the dollar isn't getting any better. The EUR is dropping, but nothing else is.

Why do you suppose this is happening? Could it be because of a little EUR discomfort?
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

That's my point entirely. I know the EUR broke 1.25 last week. That was a dollar rally. THIS, however, is a EUR fall, and not a dollar rally. Look at your EUR crosses. As you say, the dollar isn't getting any better. The EUR is dropping, but nothing else is.

Why do you suppose this is happening? Could it be because of a little EUR discomfort?
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A little discomfort... makes the world go 'round.

theskalper
 
Euro breaks 1.2478 - the Fibo 66 is now dying. I told you - the vote NO would have a delayed effect. And now, as the EUR passes this level, it'll have a cascading effect as people bail out of EUR/USD - therefore buying USD.

Of course it still has to break through. :)
 
Quote from sKaLpZ:

so is there even any more reason to buy the euro at this point?
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From a technical basis, a small one (if you're an intraday player). From any other standpoint whatsoever, no. That's my perspective.

However, I will say that the structural problems that made people go nuts on the EUR last December are technically still in place. Oil is flirting the mid 50s, and the twin deficits are still as ugly as they were back in December.

It's just that the market is short sighted (as always) and in the short term it's all about Fed Fed Fed.

Incidently, I am neither a dollar bear nor bull. Actually, that's not 100% true. I am - for the next two weeks - a dollar bull. I'm going to Greece for vacation in 10 days, and it would be very nice to spend dollars at a value I haven't seen in a while.

:)
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Well, it did. The overall "no" isn't the big downer, but the strength in which the "no" was given. That, and a perception of how abyssmal everything in the EU is now, from an economic and political perspective.
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Interesting comment. I wonder where you live and what your sources of information with regard the EU situation are.

Economic:
EU certainly is not without its problems and weaknesses. But if one is able to see the facts (not so easy with all the misinformation and brainwashing about EU and Japan by the media), you can see that the situation is in many aspects (e.g. real GDP growth per capita) just as good/bad as the US and Japan is. And in a some ways significantly better.

Political:
One has to keep things in perspective:

The main reason behind the "no" vote in France (and perhaps in other countries in the future) is MAINLY due to the nationalists / extremists turning the referendum on the EU constitution to a vote infavor / against Turkey (a country of 70mil population which are Muslims) joining the EU.

Everything regarding economic issues is "business as usual" as most economic aspects of the EU are covered by treaties.

PS: I don't like fiat currencies, the USD least of all major currencies due to the extreme risks of holding it. The others (EUR, JPY, AUD, CAD etc) because of the potential of "competitive devaluation" (like Japan did in late 2003, 1Q04) which dilutes buying power.

Still, at EUR/USD 1.2470 as I write this, I think it's a good medium-term (weeks / months) buy for anyone who wishes to diversify holdings. I just bought some contracts myself. And will watch the price action after results of the Dutch referendum to decide how much to add to that position.
 
I live in Moscow, Russia. And if you disagree, you are absolutely welcome to post - as you did. Sarcasm is better left to other threads, however. Incidently, the "abyssmal" comment came right from Thompson. I'm sure they have some good sources.

Currency markets get all antsy when a bomb squad moves through downtown Washingtonj DC. Does that mean that if there is a bomb (which there usually isn't) that the US is about to fall? Of course not. Yet people see it as a reason to sell dollars. Just like now, people see reasons to sell Euros. Whether or not what you or I say regarding the economic future is even remotely accurate, perception wins the game.

Thanks.
 
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