Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from Andy62279:

Great to hear how you are evolving Chinook :D There are pros and cons about mechanical trading. Markets evolve, so the performance can fluctuate imo. I have learned not to try and optimize an exit strategy or try and develop too many filters. I think there is a happy medium and that should be good enough.

.....

You're right, the more filters you have, you'd be getting closer to curve fitting. The best test of a system is to see how it performs on uncorrelated markets. If it completely falls apart, then that's a big warning sign.
 
Quote from chinook:

The best test of a system is to see how it performs on uncorrelated markets.

I never tested this myself, but merely observed it. It does make sense though.
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Right. Snow's comments have "captured the market's sentiment" just because he happened to say them at the same time the market was going in the dollar's direction.

Analysts are always good for a chuckle.
...just a door to door salesman...
 
Quote from brisvegas:

Hello from australia . just found this thread as i was looking for a decent FX forum , had forgot about ET and hadnt been here for eons. i took a position long on friday at 13050 based on channel TL support . have held over weekend . have a fairly lose stop . had a good last week catching most of the move down on AUD so can risk a bit on EUR . USDX might still have a little more before retrace to fib 8404 so i have to have a stop that wont get whipped on that . also a fib level on EUR around 2960 also , i may have gone a little too early but the channel was not to be missed either . this is the chart that prompted my entry . absolutely no one ive talked to said they would have gone long there and that suits me fine but i had to turn of the Mirc FX channel i was on of as the constant bears on eur were getting inside my head a little. didnt want to get turned of my trade by weight of opinions . anyhow here is my chart , see how this pans out

................. bris

10jan euro trended up towards TL resistance on channel with 38.2% fib of fridays move giving reistance . took profit at 13105 just now as it is nudging trendline resistance of channel . will look for price action to initiate next entry . profit on this trade 55 pips
 

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Just went long on EUR/JPY at 135.30.

Way oversold on the daily, and all this Issing crap can't withstand forever, methinks. Stop at 135. Target - ?

-Ivan
 
Did anybody trading futures click to buy the Euro right when the trade balance was released? My retail spot platform doesn't work very well for a few seconds after important numbers come out and I'm wondering what kind of a fill people got on Globex.

Cheers,

TRADERguy
 
Quote from TRADERguy:

Did anybody trading futures click to buy the Euro right when the trade balance was released? My retail spot platform doesn't work very well for a few seconds after important numbers come out and I'm wondering what kind of a fill people got on Globex.

Cheers,

TRADERguy

I didn't trade today but usually just before the big number releases, the bid/ask volume dries up so it's pretty much like wild west around the number releases.
 
Quote from chinook:

I didn't trade today but usually just before the big number releases, the bid/ask volume dries up so it's pretty much like wild west around the number releases.

Yes, that's one of the reasons I switched to spot but when I can't play during the fun times I wonder if I made the right choice. If anyone traded the futures after the number, especially if you waited a second or two to make sure you didn't get your face ripped off, I'd love to hear what kind of a fill was possible.

Thanks,

TRADERguy
 
Quote from chinook:

I didn't trade today but usually just before the big number releases, the bid/ask volume dries up so it's pretty much like wild west around the number releases.

Yes it was pretty wild around the number - I managed to slip in a long which I'm holding on too. I'll be curious to see what happens now - whether the show of USD strength was a correction(long overdue) and the EUR is due to continue to new heady heights is up for debate... if that is the case, was 1.3040 the base to start the new onslaught from... I'm not sure.

1.3440-70 seems the next serious resistance level - maybe the retracement is not done just yet and 1.28 looms - I'll see if this rally loses steam quickly or gathers some impetus over 1.33.

Your thoughts?
 
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