Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Hello from australia . just found this thread as i was looking for a decent FX forum , had forgot about ET and hadnt been here for eons. i took a position long on friday at 13050 based on channel TL support . have held over weekend . have a fairly lose stop . had a good last week catching most of the move down on AUD so can risk a bit on EUR . USDX might still have a little more before retrace to fib 8404 so i have to have a stop that wont get whipped on that . also a fib level on EUR around 2960 also , i may have gone a little too early but the channel was not to be missed either . this is the chart that prompted my entry . absolutely no one ive talked to said they would have gone long there and that suits me fine but i had to turn of the Mirc FX channel i was on of as the constant bears on eur were getting inside my head a little. didnt want to get turned of my trade by weight of opinions . anyhow here is my chart , see how this pans out

................. bris
 

Attachments

yes those are 30 min bars . the "C"s are a propietary signal that is part of my software called conductor analysis . Software is called Market Analyser



................... bris
 
Gegggo,

Agree with all that you said, except for the "I feel sure"comment. Don't know how you can feel sure in times of market irrationality.

Remember: A market can stay irrational far longer than traders can stay liquid!

I hope you're right, though. I'm long on Euro at 1.304
 
Quote from Andy62279:

Chinook,

it seems like you have improved your method? Was there anything in particular that improved the performance?

have a nice weekend everyone. I think I'm just gonna chill. Gotta give my liver a break :D
More...

Lately, I was mostly trading EURUSD mostly based on my technical setup (no fundamentals). However, I kept on beating myself up on missing extra profits, "unnecessary" losing trades etc...Then I started backtesting my ideas on EURUSD. I got some decent results. Then I applied same ideas to ES and I also got results with some very surprising conclusions (in terms of stop loss and profit targets).

So now I'm trading both ES and EURUSD and almost 100% mechanical. This week I had peace of mind with no self-beating and nice overall $$. I concluded that I just can't go on trading discretionarily. It just takes too much toll on me.
 
Quote from chinook:

Lately, I was mostly trading EURUSD mostly based on my technical setup (no fundamentals). However, I kept on beating myself up on missing extra profits, "unnecessary" losing trades etc...Then I started backtesting my ideas on EURUSD. I got some decent results. Then I applied same ideas to ES and I also got results with some very surprising conclusions (in terms of stop loss and profit targets).

So now I'm trading both ES and EURUSD and almost 100% mechanical. This week I had peace of mind with no self-beating and nice overall $$. I concluded that I just can't go on trading discretionarily. It just takes too much toll on me.
More...

Great to hear how you are evolving Chinook :D There are pros and cons about mechanical trading. Markets evolve, so the performance can fluctuate imo. I have learned not to try and optimize an exit strategy or try and develop too many filters. I think there is a happy medium and that should be good enough.

I don't mean to say you are making these mistakes... but this is the mistakes I find some people do with using initial stops. Some people determine their stops depending on how much money they want to lose, but I think they should place a stop where the idea for entering no longer exists. Sometimes this stop can be farther away, which means they need to start with a bigger account or use less leverage.

Exit strategy is everything. A good exit strategy can make a poor entry method into a profitable method. I hear ATR's are good. I ditched the idea of using ATR's because I dont know how to program and it'll take me forever to backtest it. You're good with computers, and maybe you can take advantage of it.

good luck with your research
Andy
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Best quote I read today (from FXstreet):

"That sent the dollar lower, but the greenback quickly recovered, partly on remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow that the United States supports a strong dollar."

LOL...

Yes, it was all Snow's doing. What happened, you see, is that Snow's 1000th time of saying it just sunk in.

haha....
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And why? Snow didn't say anything new. Because the greenback is now in a uptrend.
 
I'm not sure if you're confirming or questioning what I said.

My point was simply that this quote from FXstreet was silly. To say the dollar moved because Snow said the US had a strong dollar policy is foolish. Snow has been saying that forever and it had no effect.

In otherwords, FxStreet has no idea why the dollar moved as it did, so they say the only thing they can guess.
 
SNOW comments

-`We've said over and over again what our policy is, and our policy is a strong dollar,'' Snow said in an interview with CNBC. He said the dollar would benefit if Congress works with the administration to reduce the U.S. budget deficit.-

comments on Snow's comments ...

-`The market views this as a new wrinkle on the strong- dollar policy, and it plays into the more optimistic tone we've seen for the dollar over the past few days,'-

-While Mr Snow said nothing new yesterday, traders said the market was in more of a mood to listen than it had been. "When he made the same comments when the dollar was falling, everyone ignored them,-

-Now his comments tie in with what is happening in the market and have captured the market sentiment,-



:p
 
Right. Snow's comments have "captured the market's sentiment" just because he happened to say them at the same time the market was going in the dollar's direction.

Analysts are always good for a chuckle.
 
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