Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

I don't know. But here's what I find rather hilarious:

All those people screaming that the dollar was doomed, and falling into oblivion, and the chicken littles that said 1.40, then 1.50 were coming in Jan...

They're all quiet now. A month ago, you couldn't shut them up. Where'd they all go? What happened to the twin deficits? They're still there. Not a big deal anymore? Just like that?

All those analysts are full of crap.
 
While the analysts may look at bit silly right now with the 1.40 and 1.50 forecasts, let's not forget that purely from a structural standpoint, those levels on the EUR/USD by the end of 2005 are still a possibilty. Let's not confuse technical trade signals with macro based forecasts.

In the end it all plays out, the traders make some good money trading the zigs and zags and the macro guys make some money with their longer-term forecasts.

Cheers!
 
Chinook,

it seems like you have improved your method? Was there anything in particular that improved the performance?

have a nice weekend everyone. I think I'm just gonna chill. Gotta give my liver a break :D
 
Quote from Dave Floyd:

While the analysts may look at bit silly right now with the 1.40 and 1.50 forecasts, let's not forget that purely from a structural standpoint, those levels on the EUR/USD by the end of 2005 are still a possibilty. Let's not confuse technical trade signals with macro based forecasts.

In the end it all plays out, the traders make some good money trading the zigs and zags and the macro guys make some money with their longer-term forecasts.

Cheers!
More...

I hear ya. It's the guys that said by the end of the month that I find amusing.
 
Quote from Dave Floyd:

While the analysts may look at bit silly right now with the 1.40 and 1.50 forecasts, let's not forget that purely from a structural standpoint, those levels on the EUR/USD by the end of 2005 are still a possibilty. Let's not confuse technical trade signals with macro based forecasts.

In the end it all plays out, the traders make some good money trading the zigs and zags and the macro guys make some money with their longer-term forecasts.

Cheers!
More...

yep..it is better to separate macro and short-term trading as I would think the leverage used by the macro guys must be significantly lower -- any idea of their leverage level?

I remember Soros disclosed short USD positions in May 2003 and shortly thereafter the euro gave back about 1000 pips in the next few months -to about 1.07 eurusd- wonder if he was adding to the position as it was going against him? did he keep the short? is he still short? I don't know.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,3858,4673473-103676,00.html


I have a lot of respect for those economists/traders who predict/get on a trend in its early stages...but it seems the majority of the economists are just joining the bandwagon way too late. The Economist (Dec 2nd) article which said 1.80 eurusd is probable must have been our signal to fade the year-end rally in Euro...

I know it is still possible for the Euro to pick up and make new highs as it has done many times in the past. We'll see.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3445928

Isn't it all about timing ?
/mine hasn't been all that good last month -- shorted Euro too early/stopped out ...shorted Euro again/took profits too early (for which i'm glad!)/didn't short the rally above 1.36 as not to spoil my vacay/now it's in no man's land!!
-- just have to wait and see for the direction to trade.
 
Best quote I read today (from FXstreet):

"That sent the dollar lower, but the greenback quickly recovered, partly on remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow that the United States supports a strong dollar."

LOL...

Yes, it was all Snow's doing. What happened, you see, is that Snow's 1000th time of saying it just sunk in.

haha....
 
an european sight from austria:

not only the us state has a problem with the twin deficit, american people too. And who is the payer? JAPAN! What is covering the US currency? nothing than trust in military strength!

I feel sure that EUR/USD will reach this year 1,40! A good possibility for america to shake off debt.

good luck!:p
 
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