Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Phew, a signal-less market it is. We can see market-makers or similar activity push prices when they get some counter-trades, but other than that it's not even looking much like running stops. Well, except for now that I started typing .. :)
(USDJPY new high - low on JPYUSD 6JZ4)

Just nickels and dimes after the 15:00 GMT clip. Annoyingly motion-less.

Obviously this divergence had a big run up on the EURJPY to mid 137.90s ... wow.
 
I think the spreads on the H5 CME fx contracts are very prohibitive right now. The marketmakers are playing dealer shops.

Will this mean a further slide for the USD then ? It did get below 102, and EURJPY gapped up like it was not a 30-stories building leap it first seemed like.

[16:56 USD/JPY: Japanese Firms Seen Tolerant of Firm JPY - Kyodo]
San Francisco, Dec. 6th: Last week, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that the BOJ saw no major complaints from recent JPY gains, and saw this as a signal that Japanese firms had adjusted to JPY gains. Kyodo echoes that view today, stating that Japanese firms are becoming tolerant of JPY gains. The reports says that there are a number of factors why companies can tolerate the JPY rise, noting that many have completed their forward hedging, that the JPY for much of the year was weaker than forecast, and that the USD weakness offset somewhat by EUR and other currency gains. USD/JPY is at 102.67/71 currently, up from 102.28 at the open with the fresh verbal intervention warnings overnight providing a base for USD/JPY. Some stops at 102.60 have already been triggered on this move up. Offers are seen at 103.00. EUR/JPY gains are helping underpin USD/JPY with consistent reports since last week of Japanese investors buying EUR/JPY assets or switching out of treasuries into EUR bunds.
 
I'm getting interested in trading other FX futures too besides EURUSD. However, I will not start trading them until I have a decent mechanical strategy in place.

I did more backtesting for Euro futures over the weekend. The results are much less volatile than my real trading. So far testing is done using only price data. I'm trying to incorporate volume into trading decisions. For instance, I'm trying to find out if I can use volume data as a deciding factor for going long or short for a given time period.

I looked at the monthly CME FX futures volume data for this past November. Here are the results. I also put down relative volume wrt the Euro futures.
 

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Huh, 138 on EURJPY ... those model funds Thomson tout sure are some tough swashbuckling pirates :)

edit: It's truly amazing to watch them sending the USDJPY and EURUSD in opposites on the EURJPY ... :)
I guess the opposition sucks. It is obviously some expiry that we have not been able to get a wink of; or maybe it's this € 7bn redemption this week - and the EUR bunds mentioned earlier.
 
Quote from chinook:

Are you still trading USDJPY? How do the spreads compare to the EURUSD overall?
More...

Trading it now and then. It does have some wider spread many times, and the spreads are indications sometimes of what the intention and bias is.
It is a bit more difficult to trade than the EuroFX because of the quick moves, but comparatively few actual trades.

Right now, some Thomson comments mentioned stops above 138 on EURJPY - but seeing as it is being "held" and defended to stay above 138.00 I think there is something else. That of course has it's effects on the 6J too.
 
Extremely annoying trying to watch the books for any good scalps today with the EURJPY being pinned down like it is now. There surely is something making it defend above 138.00 - but we might never know. :)

Rally in US bonds or running stops above 138.00 is not something I buy - it would have been much more agile and not so concerted if it was simply running stops or just a bond-rally, because when it came close to 138.00 and especially above - it concerted all moves to stay above. So, there is something more, if I'm not reading totally wrong short term, which I normally don't.
:D
(putting on those hiking boots again)

The most annoying part is that Thomson went long EURJPY pretty early, but didn't give any strong reason for why believing it would continue to rise. Well, maybe the japanese investors buying bunds .. but still ...

It has been some time since I've had a CME fx trade go against me, so I can't complain - but for all my other trades - that I'm much more trigger happy about - it get's annoying at times.
 
Well, as the pits was closing it certainly turned into a stop-running frenzy - all the way to above 103. The same could be said for the EURJPY a little - running free there.
 
trading FX this am ?

I have found it hard with the rollover

to figure out what the heck is going on at times .. saw some incredible size offered
on the way up in Euro ( that was taken out )

I really blew it ... let a scalp profit of
1-2 ticks turn into a much larger loss
before I covered. ( and then 2 hours later
I would have been able to scratch )

maybe one really should have stops
in place in Euro FX but I sure do not trust
the bloody m.m.'s to give me a good fill

:p
 
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