Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
Deutsche Bank today:
Long-term buyers finally have a name
EUR USD (1.3450) The euro fell back relatively quickly from it's post non-farm payroll peak as day-traders bet that the weekâs earlier 1.3385 summit would remain the high. However, later in the session news of a prereleased article in a German financial newspaper that revealed reluctance by US authorities to intervene ahead of $1.45 put further upward pressure on the single-currency. It closed the week on another all-time high of 1.3455/60.
Fridayâs price action once more revealed that the only euro-sellers of late have been short -term traders. Repeated short -selling campaigns by this group have been systematically undone by the medium-and long-term accounts that were on the other side of the trade. This medium term group has probably had its fill of euros now*, but the long-term group is obviously still active. And now, the market is increasingly willing to put a name to
these long-term players: OPEC countries (according to a BIS quarterly report), various Asian central banks, etc.
The current target is once again 1.3590 (following the recent break of 1.3365). If this overhead hurdle is overtaken, the supply points will become increasing flimsy. In short, we do not really know where the rally might come to a climax. We suggest 1.3850 as the best resistance point, so we would set this as the next objective. The risk-reward limit to the new bullish scenario should already be set at 1.3330.
Long-term buyers finally have a name
EUR USD (1.3450) The euro fell back relatively quickly from it's post non-farm payroll peak as day-traders bet that the weekâs earlier 1.3385 summit would remain the high. However, later in the session news of a prereleased article in a German financial newspaper that revealed reluctance by US authorities to intervene ahead of $1.45 put further upward pressure on the single-currency. It closed the week on another all-time high of 1.3455/60.
Fridayâs price action once more revealed that the only euro-sellers of late have been short -term traders. Repeated short -selling campaigns by this group have been systematically undone by the medium-and long-term accounts that were on the other side of the trade. This medium term group has probably had its fill of euros now*, but the long-term group is obviously still active. And now, the market is increasingly willing to put a name to
these long-term players: OPEC countries (according to a BIS quarterly report), various Asian central banks, etc.
The current target is once again 1.3590 (following the recent break of 1.3365). If this overhead hurdle is overtaken, the supply points will become increasing flimsy. In short, we do not really know where the rally might come to a climax. We suggest 1.3850 as the best resistance point, so we would set this as the next objective. The risk-reward limit to the new bullish scenario should already be set at 1.3330.
I'm currently short from 50. Although I won't be stubborn with short direction this time. I learned my lesson around 1.30!
I ended up getting up very early this weekend, around 4-5 am local time. My body got synched to US open time
Ended up doing some testing with Tradestation. My social life is becoming extinct since I started to trade FX. At least , there are a couple of decent females is my gym, otherwise I would have forgotten about them!
I ended up getting up very early this weekend, around 4-5 am local time. My body got synched to US open time
Ended up doing some testing with Tradestation. My social life is becoming extinct since I started to trade FX. At least , there are a couple of decent females is my gym, otherwise I would have forgotten about them!
Several 1.3450 expiries 15:00 GMT according to Thomson/Jamie Coleman - that's in 35 mins.
Very choppy action so far, and little inspiration for the day. I think the EURJPY is quite high right now - 137.66 - but which of the EURUSD or USJPY will move , or if at all - I have no clue about right now.
Very choppy action so far, and little inspiration for the day. I think the EURJPY is quite high right now - 137.66 - but which of the EURUSD or USJPY will move , or if at all - I have no clue about right now.
I got a not-so-quick 11 ticks off of that tip on the 15:00 GMT expiries , but got in a little early, so it was a little unnerving at times.
I don't particularly enjoy this choppy market - and it's very erratic. At least it was somewhat clear that there really was a try for 1.3450 towards 15:00 GMT.
Now, will we shoot over 1.3450 easily , or are there no abundance of buyers right now ?
I don't particularly enjoy this choppy market - and it's very erratic. At least it was somewhat clear that there really was a try for 1.3450 towards 15:00 GMT.
Now, will we shoot over 1.3450 easily , or are there no abundance of buyers right now ?