Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from Ivanovich:

One thing that's becoming slightly obvious - and actually makes me feel better - is that the data and numbers are becoming important again. That's a relief.
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Yes, indeed. This week will be full of data releases starting tomorrow.

I'm still surprised that we haven't seen any major retracements yet afterr this huge runup.
 
Quote from SethArb:

if you are not giving away too much
trading secret on this ... I think AUD might even have higher correlation to gold than EUR ... but I usually just look
at EUR movements plus other factors when trading gold

-started building a USD hedge through a retail bank....gold with a AUD mirror .-
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............as I began to understand gold strength was a 'closely correlated' [ relative dollars] inverse of USD weakness....I cast around for a defensive position for my USD's...after some thought I initiated a position in gold, buying gold and the AUD, as the AUD, a commodity currency has a strong gold export content, like wise the CAD......the thinking was as the USD weakened gold would rise{ [1 on 1 simplistic] the 10yrTbill, Euro & oil also have a say} but the twist was the AUD position, as the USD weakened other currencies including the AUD strengthened, by using leverage and taking 'a mirror position' I was able to improve my gold profits.....closed out 5/11 vainly anticipating fiscal responsibility by the Bush administration.....unfortunately some of us still believe in truth and honesty.....now uncle al and cousin george, as we all know have a problem....and it's a real problem.. a rock and a hard place...if they sacrifice their Tbills their currency falls ..they want their currency to fall to inflate away their deficit.... but if the currency falls the Tbills lose international support..so they must increase their interest rates which will be terminal for their equities market..... they are caught between two choices making the world pay or making the US economy pay....neither choice very palatable...... getting back to the Euro....as it is the weakest bully on the block, some might say, the market has chose to beat it up.....my view is the US can not get away with this larceny indefinitely....there must be a balance point...something has got to give.... it can't be denied there is a seachange, a structural problem....we are in for difficult times .....it's supposed to be good for traders....BUT.... the problem remains how to protect your store of wealth and prosper.....I am taking an interest in the Euro at this time..... WE can alter our perceptions and understandings it only our delusions which are most difficult and most damageing....trust the above is not to delusional..if you find it so ...I apoligise in advance....
 
Ivanovich........can live with that, closed my positions far too early, .7562 : been reluctant to re commit as AUD looked to be topped.....can believe your top.....when we get a Chinese revaluation, it will drag the AUD, CAD and the SA Rand along with it.....when and if it comes it be supportive to the commodity currencies...but then I'm only stating the obvious.... would like the opportunity to load up on the AUD and CAD at fair value, there are some killer opportunities in their equities.....lets hope the info works out...
 
Oh, and one addendum on the Aussie chart. If you DO decide to play that short, stay close, and don't risk it below 7650. 4cast claims it could go down to .7575, but I think they're smoking crack.
 
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