Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Well, I guess friday's NFP could bring some normality back in a day's trading. I have been taking a look at larger timeframes again to see if I can spot a setup. I think I'm more apt at getting a play when we're in familiar territory, though. So, it is only my spot demo account which is getting a lot of attention right now. I even started scalping the demo, but even getting 40-50% return on account size in a day on demo doesn't do much to cheer me up about the market. :)

I am avoiding a lot of risk right now; sort of falling back to the fearful scalping traits again. I guess that's ok when I don't like the conditions. I find USDJPY easier to "predict" on back off EURUSD actual movements (ignoring orderbook flashing/mushrooming).

There are definitely some new crew or new tactics in town on the EuroFX book.
 
Gulf states talking about pricing oil on back of basket of currencies to make oil pricing more stable. Thomson say it's dealers talking of a Bloomberg article.
Wonder if it just is another eaxaggeration rumour or outright lie again. The most commonly used lie when trying to get the USD stronger is the bin Laden (almost) captured ... This particular concern got the USD weaker. I bought some demo USDJPY.
:D
There will probably be several of this re-surfacing of plausible considerations. It makes sense, but it might just be that the USD will be held lower to help US economy on behalf of other economies a little longer.

The timing of the news in relation to US equities open can't be discounted too.
 
... and there it came ... over mid 90s.

Now pressure will be stark with heavy flashers to try and press over 1.3300. Or it will be a series of attacks like we have seen with the other barriers.

Like, Neal mentiones, the sellers are the buyers and vice versa. They're capping both sides with smokes and mirrors.

edit: there - we're over 1.3300 for now.
I don't particularly think the 1.3350 is in any danger today, so there will probably be some nice shorts soon. Will look for a position to hold into nearing of friday's NFP.

edit2: watch the diverging USDJPY for some clues too ...
 
You can see them printing the tape a little when they get trade's against them. They quickly fill gaps and take a little shot on the next level. Don't know how it affects e.g Interbank trading; probably not.

Just a little different in the book than when it was a fuller market.

edit: my first scalp for the day with money, a +12 ... I was thinking of letting it stay as a position - but changed my mind - the erratic moves are not favourable to my mind right now. I guess I need some gingerbread cookies to get into the holiday mood. I have to make all of that myself too, not anything like that here in Brazil.

The USDJPY is slightly profitable, but Ivanovich, you are perhaps holding on to that one still ?
 
Quote from Ebo:

There is really no significant volume above 1.3288 in the futures.
More...

I notice that too, noone wants to get burned on breaching "important" big numbers. That goes for defending them too ... the latest craze has been it's own death.

Friday will be a mover, though - unless we're at 1.3500 or something .. :D

edit: another +10 could have been made on that last move - but I prefer half the profits over a loss anyway... that's how I've done well scalping. I think I will surpass what I've made on ES futures with EuroFX in january or possibly february if I can hold this up. That would at least show that I made the right choice. I don't even look at ES anymore - totally detached. At most I might look at QM, QG, bonds and gold.
 
Look at the USDJPY dragging the EURUSD again too ...
Earlier - mid-european session and before the gulf states Bloomberg article fuzz, it was the other way around.

I dislike that spot demo account a little - it's like a grim testimony of what I could have done today. It's around +60% today - but it was risky to say the least.

edit: Thomson exited their short USDJPY at a minimal loss, and notes that if USDJPY closes above 103.11-15 that would give bulls the upper hand on charts. That could further play into EURUSD into friday's NFP number, and give a slight and not unwelcome retrace.
 
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