Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

[Gringinho]

I must say I get a little irritated with some comments via Thomson, like the one where Jamie Coleman says that China is the main culprit in global imbalances right now. China imports more from every neighbour than it exports. It can't just unpeg it's currency like the US wants. It would be trade- and finance-suicide with the banking problems they also face.

It's the US which is making the biggest imbalance - it's responsible for most of world energy consumption and contributes the largest part of the world economy - at the expense of enormous deficits - for other economies to finance to further spur growth there. It's like fattening the christmas pig or turkey ..

It goes to show how silly some of the comments get in the news. I take most comments sceptically, but try and see what effect they could have. Now, I'm often disappointed with the "intelligence" in the market, but going all "simplistic" makes it more understandable. Then it's the thing of putting some trading weight behind the FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) in the market and on the back of groundless stories and rumours.

There seem to be a lot of spinners with almost epic aspirations in the market; me included ?


edit: EURJPY has really seen some tight trading today. Impressively contained.

 

[fandelem]

Quote from Gringinho:

Look at the USDJPY dragging the EURUSD again too ...
Earlier - mid-european session and before the gulf states Bloomberg article fuzz, it was the other way around.

I dislike that spot demo account a little - it's like a grim testimony of what I could have done today. It's around +60% today - but it was risky to say the least.

edit: Thomson exited their short USDJPY at a minimal loss, and notes that if USDJPY closes above 103.11-15 that would give bulls the upper hand on charts. That could further play into EURUSD into friday's NFP number, and give a slight and not unwelcome retrace.

I read this as well.. do you know where the BOJ Account Balance statement will first be released and/or what time?

 

[Gringinho]

Quote from fandelem:

I read this as well.. do you know where the BOJ Account Balance statement will first be released and/or what time?

I normally take a look at http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/FXCalendar.html
or similar services.

 

[TRADERguy]

Quote from Gringinho:

I must say I get a little irritated with some comments via Thomson, like the one where Jamie Coleman says that China is the main culprit in global imbalances right now. China imports more from every neighbor than it exports. It can't just unpeg it's currency like the US wants. It would be trade- and finance-suicide with the banking problems they also face.

Gringinho,

Do you know any details on the state of China's banks. I always read about generalities and I'd love to get some real info on this.

Thanks,

TRADERguy

 

[Gringinho]

Quote from TRADERguy:

Gringinho,

Do you know any details on the state of China's banks. I always read about generalities and I'd love to get some real info on this.

Thanks,

TRADERguy

I don't know more than passes on Bloomberg Asian session, or Bloomberg articles and similar. From time to time there are some statistics or analysis of the finance industry and bad loan ratios etc with chinese banks.

 

[Ivanovich]

Ah, good morning, fellas! Last night went well. Closed out the EUR trade at 1.33, then sold some swissie which I just bought back for about 50 pips.

So, questions is where does it go now? EUR going back up, or stepping back down again?

 

[chinook]

Looks like Euro might be setting itself up for another short. I'll wait for the European session to see if we have another reversal by then.

 

[goldensavage]

Quote ''.......been watching this thread last few days...you guys look to have have a handle on it... any pointers for a newbie....how to tool up...recommended execution products...FX strategies...'' Unqote.......in this chat by default... started building a USD hedge through a retail bank....gold with a AUD mirror ... closed out 5/11...38k ahead....looking to short the Euro into a nearby reversal, from 1.32-1.35 range....first position cut @1.32..perhaps premature.....looks like 1.3260/70 a pivot.....perhaps I am trying to catch a falling knife......you guys have a good thing going .............. request assistance [Thank's Chinook.]

 

[SethArb]

if you are not giving away too much
trading secret on this ... I think AUD might even have higher correlation to gold than EUR ... but I usually just look
at EUR movements plus other factors when trading gold

-started building a USD hedge through a retail bank....gold with a AUD mirror .-

 

[Ivanovich]

Quote from chinook:

Looks like Euro might be setting itself up for another short. I'll wait for the European session to see if we have another reversal by then.

One thing that's becoming slightly obvious - and actually makes me feel better - is that the data and numbers are becoming important again. That's a relief.