Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from trade-ya1:

I'm buying EUR here in anticipation of the European open. This move down is bullshit, just knocking out a few weak EUR longs. Spec position is very very heavily long EUR. When the flow is light, like Japan holiday, good chance to push for some stops to the downside (which they got). My guess is over 1.31 by close of NY tomorrow. Neal.
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I agree onthe BS of the down move - just glad I got my trade target on it .. :)

I don't think we'll see 1.31 this week; the popular talk now is about some profit-taking, but we need some catalyst. Corporate hedging in the EU has not materialized - and I think they're speculating in being able to avoid this. Further uncertainties added by the now obvious asian appreciation vs USD makes this a very possible scenario.

Hans Goetti from Citigrup Private Banking in Singapore was just on Bloomberg UK, and said he sees the USD weakening against asian currencies durign the next months.

I think this takes away the reason for the € taking the brunt of the USD weakness..

Everyone are long €, and EUR-sentiment is strongest ever - around 70% I think the Deutsche Bank survey was on EUR-BullIndex. That doesn't mean there are enough catalysts for a strong EURUSD move - especially with the lack of the corporate hedgers.

As a hedge professional, you probably see a little more of this than me ... :)


Nice to see the rebound - maybe hitting around 1.3010 soon like I tipped.

I would still favour good short entries for the risks I mentioned - they are a lot less labourous than the barriers above in my opinion. Save a terror attack in the US, I don't see a reason for going long.
 
I'll be up all night as usual and then a full day of meetings tomorrow. Don't feel bad. No sleep for the weary. Good luck to us all...might have another quick dip around European open to shake out the last weak longs. Up from there.
 
I like EUR/JPY to the upside. It's been in a moderate uptrend for many months now. This is a buying chance for EUR/JPY. I don't think that JPY will strengthen sharply from here at least near term without China devaluing. BOJ will indirectly manage the currency without direct intervention. Buy EUR/JPY, Buy EUR, watch for another dip down in EUR. Then buy on renewed strength. Have a good position here just in case no further dip.
 
Quote from setharb:

I assume these numbers might move the market a little in the next few hours?

Tuesday, November 23, 2004

02am EST

GER 3Q Final GDP ?

04am EST

EU Sep Euro zone Indus New Orders?
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I really haven't seen a good reaction to European numbers for a while. I think the best thing is to expect either no reaction or buying the EUR after the releases (just because it's safe to do so because the numbers are already out). Just in case the markets pay attention, remember that the GDP figures are final so it will only move if there is a significant change from the preliminary figures. Industrial new orders...If they are weaker than expected I guess it could trigger a little profit taking if there has been a rally during the first part of the European open.

Cheers,

TRADERguy
 
On the back of further weakening US equities and expectations, Neal might be right about a quick run-up on the EURUSD, though. It's a hard call. I do think we will make a run for it before having a retrace, but I have no idea when and how it will materialize.

I have a little trouble seeing why to go short JPY here - i.e long EURJPY, but with further USD weakening it might become viable again. Otherwise I see the asian currencies as having the most upside, and not the €.

edit: holy ... smoke! Mario Maratheftis Standard Chartered (on Bloomberg UK now) see the USDJPY into 95 next year. I think we would see a US recession before that - and Koizumi would probably say: over my dead body.
Mario also see a retracement on EURUSD before going 1.35+ next year. He cites year end profit-taking and thinner december markets as reasons for retracement. I can't do anything else than say - that's how I see it too.
 
*yawn* Someone get the coffee going or run down to Dunkies we got money to print :p

Alarm clock just woke me up for London open. Good luck all.
 
I should just place a limit order and go back to sleep, I think we can all say the area of less resistance is up to the mid 1.3s. Given that I am long, but I am fully prepared to see a little speedbump from to there.
 
The longer term charts do not indicate any sign of a significant retracement in the EUR at this point. I do not advocate going short the JPY. However, I do think that from this point, the dollar will weaken faster and deeper against the EUR vs. the JPY, hence, causing the EUR/JPY to rise. If you look at the chart of EUR/JPY, this is pretty good trade location for a buy as the chart has seen a gradual drifting uptrend in that pair. In short, $ falls against all currencies including EUR and JPY. Just falls faster against EUR going forward. EUR has had a pause that refreshes for about 2 - 2 1/2 days now. Weak longs dumped paving the way for renewed vigor to the upside. Just my 2 Euros worth. Neal.
 
Yes, I think that we will see further USD weakness, but with december thin and volatile markets coming up I think that profit-taking will neccessarily come - and where can it go when "everyone" are long EURUSD ?

I edit-quoted an analyst from Standard Chartered just on Bloomberg UK in my previous post.
 
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