Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Nope, there is japanese holiday today.
I almost forgot about it - but when I saw this USDJPY I got in asap - there are good blocks around 104.45-50 ...
I think something similar could be done on the EURUSD - but I have a little doubts about the EURJPY - so I like USDJPY better.

USDJPY had rebounded ~10 ticks already.
 
Nice rebound if anyone else got in on the USDJPY - anyone want to share targets ? Around 0.009710 - i.e around 103.08-09 ?

Some US hedge fund reportedly pushed the USD on both USDJPY and EURUSD. Nice going on a japanese holiday - but I don't think so. We can wait .. and they won't be breaking above 103.50 anytime soon ...
:D
 
Seems like they're trying to cap some of the rebound in USDJPY ... let's see how long they can keep it up.
They need to get that stop-run pump getting an awfully lot of times to hold the market off.

edit: Interesting interview with BOC representative on FT.com, Thomson cites. Li Ruogu says the US should try and fix their own mess, and not burden and blame other countries for their problems. Also advices US gives up the base manufacturing and concentrates on advanced areas.

Well, to an extent the US is now outsourcing a lot of lower value service work to e.g. India - take MSFT for example. They will likely not give up parts of raw materials like steel etc. - and certainly not agricultural levys - which amount to huge sums of subsidies.

edit2: they try and creep higher but I do honestly think that they will be unsuccessful in wristing over 103.50 for any sustainable period. Just my €.02 on the holiday market.
 
I just placed my stop well above and will see this one as a fire-and-forget - not exactly a AGM-65 Maverick or AIM-120 AMRAM missile but something close in nature.
:D
I just added, so I have a +30 target on this - I think it's quite plausible given markets right now. Very thin action on the national holiday in Japan.

Also, I think WHEN the rebound comes it will drag the EURUSD up a little notch - so entry in EURUSD would be dependent on easing action on USDJPY or vice-versa if the USD buyers get hammered strongly or reverse soon.

Of course this is just with regards to scalping - otherwise I think the EURUSD is bound lower, and around 1.2980 is my target for my longer term position (+80 ticks).

A stronger USDJPY would help breaking below 1.3000 on EURUSD, but it's pretty unlikely right now with the barriers around 103.50 and above.

Some signs of profit-taking this week could spur some lower EURUSD though.
 
A currency analyst was on Bloomberg TV talking about S. Korean intervention that will drive the USD/JPY a little higher. Apparently yesterday the Government called on the Central bank to be more aggressive.

First I've heard of it and I have zero knowledge of S. korean currency policy.
 
:D Short from 1.3029 4 lots, going to get out around low 60's, then go long again if I feel it turning.

It's so much more fun being acting a whale then a little bottom feeder! I'm turning into a swing trader with larger stops.
 
At least I got my +80 position on the EURUSD position. I might have waited for +100, but why take chances.
And it seems they are rumours that are still unconfirmed.
The rumour mill is nice to have on holidays - so I think this one has little substance to it still.

The USDJPY still only looks like an extension or stop run - nothing more yet.
 
Next dip I'm taking profits just to be safe.

I'm out in this pause in action. P/L for day +$900, but I'm going to play this action a little more.
 
Thomson notes that the USDJPY extension is on the back of USD strengthening - i.e the EURUSD run downwards. No real substance, bluffing on thin volumes and that the preferred strategy is shorting levels from here as the action is totally unrelated to MOF/BOJ action.

Well, they couldn't touch my stop (which was very wide since I was 'fanatic' about the accuracy on this trade), so I guess I'll just be patient in this holiday of a market for the USDJPY.

Thomson notes the EURJPY as proof, and I added to my position again. Getting to be a nice sum there now.

I still think a 103.45+ entry is a good position for tonight and heading into tomorrow.
 
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