Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Thomson reports that analysts say Japanese officials might move to intervene this week on back of the fact that Bush did not say markets should decide prices, but instead only said he favoured a strong USD. Well, Bush never was much of a smooth talker, so I don't think anyone would take that seriously.
So in my view BOJ intervention now is unlikely - unless we press hard down first - closing in on 101 or something.

EURUSD gapped up this afternoon, but did not show much bullishness yet with a slightly downwards sloping channel.

I still have my trade from high 50s, so I will still be looking for my target of 80-100 ticks.

EURJPY jumped nicely with the USDJPY slight bounce - and I think the EURJPY indicates more of the sentiments than the USDJPY right now, so a fairly volatile EURUSD is probably to be expected.

edit: I shorted the 30s on USDJPY on spot demo - got to test my theories when I can. :)
 
USDJPY is wonderfully choppy tonight and it's fairly easy to scalp at least +10 ticks on each of the waves.
While EURUSD is a little contracted in it's range, the EURJPY has some good stuff going with choppiness on back of USDJPY chops.

So JPY is definitely in focus right now, with both the EUR and the USD pairings.
 
scalped 21 ticks / pips ( profit ) in less than 90 minutes on 9 trades of 1 lot each
with only 1 scratch

I know myself ... if I try to keep this up

I will probably give back my gains as I am probably over trading

maybe I will try scalping gold and mini gold later tonight

:p
 
Quote from SethArb:

scalped 21 ticks / pips ( profit ) in less than 90 minutes on 9 trades of 1 lot each
with only 1 scratch

I know myself ... if I try to keep this up

I will probably give back my gains as I am probably over trading

maybe I will try scalping gold and mini gold later tonight

:p
More...

I know what you mean; trader fatigue and feeling of grandour sets in after a lot of successful trades.
:D

9 trades for 21 in 90 min is not that bad, but if it was 6J on CME it would probably amount to over-trading, while on the spot I think it's fairly normal intensive going. Keeping up concentration and not getting "stubborn" on back of previous scalp success is the big trapdoor revealing itself below one's feet after trading intesively for more than 1 hour.

During WW2 and after the british made some test of how long operators could keep their concentration looking at radar screen images, and they found an average of 40-50 minutes whilst needing roughly 15 mins breaks for monitioring intervals. I think that're some human limits that one should keep in the back of the mind when scalping intensively too. Similar for air traffic controllers - scalping fast is fairly similar. Therefore any scalper who is also an air traffic controller in "real life" would probably burn out pretty fast. A former air traffic controller might have an advantage though.

I have a demo spot short on USDJPY from the 103.30s which I expect to cash in in mid 102s, and then I've had 3 successful scalps on USDJPY - 10, 10, and now the last one at 14 ticks. :)

This last move from below 103 to back in the range was just too nice ...

I just sent for some beers, because I need to get to sleep a little earlier tonight. I want to get the european action on the back of this - even for the USDJPY and EURJPY. I am following this a few hours more though, as it's nice to get a feel for how markets are reacting and the mood of things.

USDJPY just have a perfect chopping range here now.
 
I expect to see some further strength on the USD right now as an extension for the USDJPY and spillover into EURJPY , EURUSD - with both of them caught in the middle. Just my next trigger for an eventual next trade; i.e looking for some higher areas on futures than 103.25 equivalent (not including the 10 tick offset on 6J).

If it consolidates and stops a little I will just not enter - for CME 6J USDJPY that is.

I don't expect it to break above the 103.50 capping, though. Which would be a no-no for me - and I would need to recalculate strategies.

All of this USDJPY trading makes me want to upgrade my 8 kyu Shogi rating ... so des ne, watashi-wa ****n desu !
 
EURUSD in the 1.3030s seem ripe for some scalping on my spot demo too.
I might consider pausing the EuroFX longer term position too, but I'm not ready for a "pause" on the trade yet.

Thomson says analysts (who?) reflects that record high IMM data of 54k for EURUSD longs coupled with thanksgiving will spur some profit-taking this week. Well, without Thomson letting go of who they have been reading up on, I think that it's obvious with december's reputation for volatility - that some would prefer profits near ATH here. Especially when G20 is over, resulting in no policy changes - just mouthing off as always lately. The USDJPY situation also adds a new factor in there as I have mentioned back on friday.

Hey, now we're also extending into the area above 103.25 on the USDJPY ... gotta go .. :)
 
I just ventured into a combined EURJPY with a position on both EURUSD and USDJPY with CME. That will be interesting. :)

Of course, the "side effect" is $ 25 pr tick pr contract instead of the usual $ 12.50 ...

Needless to say, both positions are very small in size for this experiment; so far both are slightly profitable. But not for long on the USDJPY which probably has some movement in it...
 
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