Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from trade-ya1:

By the way, if I'm the big hot shot hedge fund manager you refer to (thanks for the compliment), I have 100% of my liquid net worth invested in my Fund, I have my reputation and my career on the line. Don't you think that qualifies my trades as meaningful to me? I had a nice day today but still stuck in the office now doing paperwork (counting the beans). :)
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"Don't you think that qualifies my trades as meaningful to me?"

"Meaningful" perhaps. Responsible and serious no.

Being able to see beyond your fantasies of buying a "Lotus" is non-existent.

Basing your trade system structure on "the whole world will help me" (... control the centi-trillion dollar forex market with your 10 million unit trade "and more will be below") so you can get a car is hazardous.

Advising these guys to keep buying euro to you can drive over 55mph while listening to "Wake me up" by Evanescence is wreckless.

Meanwhile, replying to you bores me. This whole matter will be proved and finalized in 60 days when EUR/USD is near a buck.


fxs
 
Keep thinking that way and you'll be relegated to drive a Pinto like Coinz. What could you have possibly seen that makes you think short side Sunday? It's impossible, you can't be thinking that!
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

Keep thinking that way and you'll be relegated to drive a Pinto like Coinz. What could you have possibly seen that makes you think short side Sunday? It's impossible, you can't be thinking that!
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Let me put it this way, bro...

My last 3000 trades in EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, etc., both long and short I closed all winners. (a few minor positions were tossed along the way to balance out risk tolerance and free up capital but nothing big enough to register on my account.)

I currently have 30 trades open ranging in drawdown amounts, and I've closed 100 this week all winners. *yawn*

If I thought taking a buy order out on euro was providing myself with the probability of more reward than risk I'd go long euro in a heartbeat, selling the USD. I have not taken a long out beyond 1.2500. It was too risky for me.

But, as things stand, going long on euro at this level is not just risky it's suicidal. It doesn't fall within the bounds of any definition of even "risky speculation" that I know of: And I take on brutal risk... but never bad risk.

My record of successful fx trading speaks for itself. And, I trade live money.

I may even be trading in my Pinto soon.

fx
 
Quote from trade-ya1:

Already got 2.
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You may want to look back into that crystal ball of yours after you squirt it down with some Windex and ask yourself: What does the euro, as a stand alone currency, offer me that I would want to hold it long term? (because that is what you're going to be doing by opening more and more long trades as it tumbles down past 1.0000 to 0.7500).

Until you can come up with a good answer besides hoping the world will rescue you so you can scrape together enough for a downpayment on a car, you are simply spinning the barrel of a .38 Smith and Wesson with a bullet in the cylinder, putting it to your head and pulling the trigger. Just because it hasn't blow you away yet means very little. Nor does it make you successful. And it has nothing to do with trading.

I've already taken out over 500 successful short trades on EUR/USD on the way up to 1.3000. Thirty of them got stuck temporarily.

Excuse me.

fx
 
Quote from V-Viper:

I'll take an F40 thank you very much, raw twin turbo POWER!

I'm thinking short side Sunday.
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Let's put it this way, bro: I'm suspending all trading activity.

If you are flat I would suggest you stay flat until one of two things transpires: It either goes to 1.2500 (at which time go short) or it goes to 1.3200 to 1.3300 - at which time go short.

Because right now there may simply be too much dumb volatility in the market to safely trade EUR/USD either direction. Most likely stops will just get hit any way you go. It will be in one of these two places within 30 days.

If it continues to climb, which I doubt it will, but, this is forex after all, my plan is to cease trading until it reaches 1.3300 to 1.3400, which it most likely won't, then break out my reserves (that are roughly equal to my current account size) engage the market in a Round Two scenario. Same direction. Same trade and money management techniques.

That will raise my average price up several hundred points then I can A). Dump the whole trade for 100 points profit as it falls back, increasing my account nicely; or, B). Wait till it falls down to 1.2500, close it for a hefty profit then take another look at the situation.

Then again, I may be tempted to call off the trading suspension so I can get gas money for my Pinto to make it to 7-Eleven next week to buy a lottery ticket.

Snipes
 
Can we stop comparing the sizes of each other's penis for a moment and talk about why we believe the EUR/USD is going to move one way or the other?

Frankly, and I don't know if I speak for others trying to read this thread, but I'm beginning to reach my bullsh*t threshold with all this "I got this car and that car". If you're so fantastically rich (which I'm sure is the reason you spend all day posting here!) then leave the forum to us mortals who are trying to understand the market withOUT the megalomaniacs that go with it.

Thanks!

-Ivan
 
Quote from Ivanovich:

Can we stop comparing the sizes of each other's penis for a moment and talk about why we believe the EUR/USD is going to move one way or the other?

Frankly, and I don't know if I speak for others trying to read this thread, but I'm beginning to reach my bullsh*t threshold with all this "I got this car and that car". If you're so fantastically rich (which I'm sure is the reason you spend all day posting here!) then leave the forum to us mortals who are trying to understand the market withOUT the megalomaniacs that go with it.

Thanks!

-Ivan
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I think it's a good idea.

Oversimplifying the mess, the euro-zone is just now beginning to turn in numbers revealing their delicate and fragile economies.

And, that was caused by a rate range of 1.2000 to 1.2300.

EU Commission already cut their growth forecast.

They grew at an enemic 0.2%. You can't get worse than that.

Actually you can! If the pair's rate hits over 1.3000, climbs or stays there very long, you'll be reading the economic horror stories coming out of the euro-zone in the news.

Therefore my take on it is investors have little interest in a nation (or group of nations in the euro-zone's case) that is collapsing due to its currency exchange rate being too high.

No interest = sell orders.

Sell orders = the rate of EUR/USD going DOWN, not up.


fxs
 
The problem is, snipe, that investors do not seem to be acting like you claim. They DO seem to have interest in buying the Euro against the dollar - despite strong numbers coming out of the US. Whenever any Euro bull is questioned as to the motives, they reply with the same answer: Current Account.

Now, right or wrong, it seems to be the way we're going. A strong NFP like the one two Friday's ago is perfecrt evidence of that. Not only did the number not offer an effect, but it then had the audacity to push the record.

So regardless of whether or not we believe there is reason for the euro to go up, go up it has. And in the face of such irrational, yet determined behavior, do we have any choice but to go along?

-Ivan
 
is the bullish sentiment must still be quite high ... will be interesting to see if it goes up this weekend

I have no Euro position at the moment
 
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