Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
Today I was hit by slight insanity. I managed to trade well (first short and then long) during the first part of the US session. Then I started going against the main trend by shorting and I exactly knew what I was doing wrong. I think overall I was lucky since things could have ended much worse. I turned nice 29 ticks net profits (when it was just 1.2922 after the bounce below) into 12 ticks net loss. Of course, by shorting I missed the opportunity of going long.
On the bright side, my insanity was slight today, it used to get much worse under these conditions. I didn't do extreme overtrading with small stops. I was OK with leverage, still went overboard little bit but at least I didn't go completely nuts with it. I think insanity will visit me again but if I can control the leverage I should be oK.
Have a nice weekend! I promise that I won't look at charts until Sunday afternoon
On the bright side, my insanity was slight today, it used to get much worse under these conditions. I didn't do extreme overtrading with small stops. I was OK with leverage, still went overboard little bit but at least I didn't go completely nuts with it. I think insanity will visit me again but if I can control the leverage I should be oK.
Have a nice weekend! I promise that I won't look at charts until Sunday afternoon
Good weekend all, see/chat with you all on Sunday.Two big resistence today...one at 1.2970,second at 1.2981...reasonf of ir should be ECB which will focused is crossing 1.3
Will see next week.
Will see next week.
I know you guys fully expect this to go to 1.3000 then to 1.4000... 1.8000... 1.100000 and so on but, what if...
It doesn't?
What if, against all possible causes, perceptions, reasoning and sanity, it starts falling? Falling to 1.2000... to 1.1800... to sub-1500s?
You may want to ask yourselves that question.
The thing is, what you see (buyer build-up, "support" levels, etc.) in the market moment by moment can change in the blink of an eye. Maybe better not to build a reality on what you see going on today.
Seems like some of you have earned some decent money with this euro bull move. I'd hate to see you get butchered and lose it all by continuing going long, long, long, on the way down, thinking it is for sure to go up.
I've lost nothing going short on this 900 point move up. I used up a few bucks I earned on the way up but that's about it. If you guys start locking into your profits putting them on the line betting on a continued upward "trend" you may simply have your stops forcefully hit and hit and hit as the rate tumbles.
That scenario will wipe out any and all of your profits you earned during the last 2 months and possibly even your principle if you get crazy with this past bull move.
Having won and earned good money in the recent past can be just as detrimental to you if you let those heady gains effect your judgment, now doing the wrong thing with those profits, i.e., remaining in a direction (mentally and psychologically) that suddenly becomes the wrong one.
The euro is on the verge of collapsing over 1000s points, make no mistakes about it.
Maybe you guys should take a glance back over the "trends" during the past year. What you'll see is massive downturns after each rise in the euro without fail even into the 1.1700s.
In EACH of those "upward trends" it was the same market sentiment as now, that the price would climb up indefinitely but it didn't. The reality is euro longs got charbroiled time after time after time. Don't delude yourself into thinking it won't happen now.
All that is needed is for the market to set its hope that the USD budget gaps will narrow. This whole market will change significantly! Not so with the euro zone economic environment. Read the news - they're sputtering hard to a halt again. There's no hope in sight for them. And that situation will quickly get extremely worse on a strengthening euro.
Soon, any long trades you open on the euro will be the same as if you were speculating on one of those small "developing nation" economies that are subject to coups. In comparison, the US economy, condition in the world and potential for improvement is 100 times better now than it was 2 years ago.
Don't follow "hot-shot" hedge fund managers who don't trade their own money, because they have nothing to lose.
The difference between making money, and retaining profits continuously is VAST.
Be smart and look at your future. Do the right thing, not the comfortable or popular one.
Ask yourself this simple question: "If I didn't take out any more long trades... if I just stayed flat... which way would the market gravitate?" You know the answer: Downward.
fxs
It doesn't?
What if, against all possible causes, perceptions, reasoning and sanity, it starts falling? Falling to 1.2000... to 1.1800... to sub-1500s?
You may want to ask yourselves that question.
The thing is, what you see (buyer build-up, "support" levels, etc.) in the market moment by moment can change in the blink of an eye. Maybe better not to build a reality on what you see going on today.
Seems like some of you have earned some decent money with this euro bull move. I'd hate to see you get butchered and lose it all by continuing going long, long, long, on the way down, thinking it is for sure to go up.
I've lost nothing going short on this 900 point move up. I used up a few bucks I earned on the way up but that's about it. If you guys start locking into your profits putting them on the line betting on a continued upward "trend" you may simply have your stops forcefully hit and hit and hit as the rate tumbles.
That scenario will wipe out any and all of your profits you earned during the last 2 months and possibly even your principle if you get crazy with this past bull move.
Having won and earned good money in the recent past can be just as detrimental to you if you let those heady gains effect your judgment, now doing the wrong thing with those profits, i.e., remaining in a direction (mentally and psychologically) that suddenly becomes the wrong one.
The euro is on the verge of collapsing over 1000s points, make no mistakes about it.
Maybe you guys should take a glance back over the "trends" during the past year. What you'll see is massive downturns after each rise in the euro without fail even into the 1.1700s.
In EACH of those "upward trends" it was the same market sentiment as now, that the price would climb up indefinitely but it didn't. The reality is euro longs got charbroiled time after time after time. Don't delude yourself into thinking it won't happen now.
All that is needed is for the market to set its hope that the USD budget gaps will narrow. This whole market will change significantly! Not so with the euro zone economic environment. Read the news - they're sputtering hard to a halt again. There's no hope in sight for them. And that situation will quickly get extremely worse on a strengthening euro.
Soon, any long trades you open on the euro will be the same as if you were speculating on one of those small "developing nation" economies that are subject to coups. In comparison, the US economy, condition in the world and potential for improvement is 100 times better now than it was 2 years ago.
Don't follow "hot-shot" hedge fund managers who don't trade their own money, because they have nothing to lose.
The difference between making money, and retaining profits continuously is VAST.
Be smart and look at your future. Do the right thing, not the comfortable or popular one.
Ask yourself this simple question: "If I didn't take out any more long trades... if I just stayed flat... which way would the market gravitate?" You know the answer: Downward.
fxs
By the way, if I'm the big hot shot hedge fund manager you refer to (thanks for the compliment), I have 100% of my liquid net worth invested in my Fund, I have my reputation and my career on the line. Don't you think that qualifies my trades as meaningful to me? I had a nice day today but still stuck in the office now doing paperwork (counting the beans).