Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
I think A LOT of traders got totally chewed up and spit out by the mean market machine today. The fast-paced action over a prolonged period indicates that a lot of very big players were slugging it out. If you watch the volume as well, you will see constant big volume during that first 90 minutes.
There are a lot of traders who probably will go home a lot poorer today. The brokers will be able to wear several new and heavier gold-chains around their necks.
I am just glad I did so "well", although I should have entered that little position instead of typing here; but getting about +60 ticks off this action is not bad - much better than a typical day and with some nice sizes as well. This week has been totally stellar for me - best ever on futures. And the best thing is that I've been very right in most of my assumptions about the market; the only gripe is that perhaps I have been a little too careful - because the market has reacted much faster than I thought - although in the direction anticipated. I guess it's a result of the new high levels and perceived breakout with a solid goodbye to the former constricted range trading without proper signals.
I am pretty convinced we'll see a 1.29+ ending today; because that's what the market seems to want. Of course some big player(s) can brute it down, but it will pop up again. It's just a matter of holding on while the predators shake the little monkeys from the trees.
Better take some look on both very short-term charts as well as daily chart .. it seems like duldroms setting in here now. Early lunches it seems. We might see some revenges later on, because nothing is a given today with this total mayhem.
The biggest mistake I had about this week was with the Challenger report indications - where it had multi-month 100k layoffs. I think that set most of the big players off wrong and made the "extreme" selloff with mega-chopping follow-through. Happily, I did not take chances on the number, although I first planned to do so. Having that little scalping-fear helps a little there, and running away with profits feels a lot better now. It all came down to the faster-than-expected moves, targets being within reach.
The biggest mistake I had about this week was with the Challenger report indications - where it had multi-month 100k layoffs. I think that set most of the big players off wrong and made the "extreme" selloff with mega-chopping follow-through. Happily, I did not take chances on the number, although I first planned to do so. Having that little scalping-fear helps a little there, and running away with profits feels a lot better now. It all came down to the faster-than-expected moves, targets being within reach.
Yup, but you will see some movement towards the event in about 40 minutes - european close, EST lunch hours. Most likely a holding of 1.2900 levels with choppy runs upwards. Continued trading now is most likely called "over-trading".
edit: I almost can't believe how things happen as I write!
edit2: Also beware of all the pundit, political comments on EURUSD today. There has been a lot of them.
Like they said on Bloomberg UK right now, "if this employment report can't strengthen the USD, that is the clearest signal of what the market thinks of it" (paraphrased).
Another great comment was "makes one wonder what would have happened if the NFP had been less than expected" ...
In the latter case I think we would see the mid 1.29s and had some trapping, stalling there.
It just goes to prove that the NFP meant nothing - nothing but some quick, "innocent" fun.
edit: It's not like I don't make money off of this - my funding is in â¬s - but most of this weeks profits sadly were not converted into â¬s yet - still having them in $s, but those complaints are tears of a crocodile.
Another great comment was "makes one wonder what would have happened if the NFP had been less than expected" ...
In the latter case I think we would see the mid 1.29s and had some trapping, stalling there.
It just goes to prove that the NFP meant nothing - nothing but some quick, "innocent" fun.
edit: It's not like I don't make money off of this - my funding is in â¬s - but most of this weeks profits sadly were not converted into â¬s yet - still having them in $s, but those complaints are tears of a crocodile.