Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Thomson mentions a piece in the WSJ by Sims which says ECB may need to rise rates because of high oil prices, and Trichet also says he sees the upside risk to inflation - so some believe a rate hike is imminent.
That could prove a good follow-through all the way past 1.3000 ... Some were talking about 1.35 - but forgot who it was .. or if it was a comment on Thomson - because I seem to remember some Fibos and waves in there too.

Other info from them:
[01:09 USD/JPY To Find It Easier To Move Lower After Fix] Tokyo, Nov 5. USD bears could take USD/JPY lower now that the Tokyo fix is over. It is the 5th, a day which usually sees larger settlements, and a Friday, and some were eyeing larger importer settlements at the Tokyo fix this morning ahead of the weekend. There have been no reports of any untoward importer flows, suggesting it may now be easier for bears to take USD/JPY lower. Granted, more bidding interest from Japanese parties are seen likely below 106.00. However, most of this interest is now seen lower, towards the overnight low of 105.68. Defense of option triggers at 105.50 will also likely continue, especially ahead of expiries at the New York cut tonight. Upside resistance has been confirmed in the 106.10-20 zone, with 106.17 the high so far in Asia this morning. USD/JPY currently trades 106.02/07.
 
And some late comments before taking a rest (don't have daylight saving time where I live - close to equator) :
[02:40 EUR/USD: Consolidates Below 1.2900 In Asia] Sydney November 5th. The EUR/USD traded in a tight 1.2865/1.2889 range in Asia this morning, consolidating the overnight gains, with moderate volume traded. Local investors are reluctant to establish fresh risk ahead of the non-farm payroll figures tonight. The median expectation is a rise of 160k and the fear is that a strong number, combined with the recent retracement in oil could trigger a USD correction, as the speculative market remains heavily short USD. We expect the offers ahead of barrier options at 1.2900 to cap the pairing into the European open and bids below 1.2850 should provide a base. The EUR/USD trades 1.2877/82.
 
That was some action ....
I did 12 scalps for roughly 43 ticks total, 3 of those scalps were losers, where I gave back roughly 24 ticks. It was easiest when it went well below 1.28, but also some good bounces off 1.2800.

Later on I think we'll see it creep upwards again, so I'm heading back in here ..
:)
 
Can't seem to stop scalping though, and it seems easy ... but I know it's just as easy to loose 10 ticks as to book +10 ticks profits in 10 seconds. Just got to find the momentum and time the entry tight. Booked another 2 scalps of +10 and + 4. A good day still, but getting worked up a little.

When it calms down - perhaps I'll see if it isn't possible to see some direction ... if not - and we get into chop I'll wait a little.

edit: we ought to end over 1.2840 .. which is a little important - or maybe 1.2850 even ... Still everything over 1.2815 is safe - regarding the view into the election and all. I still think this payrolls number is nothing else than a little relief and does not matter really.

edit2: interesting to see US equities open .. will they rally strongly from here ? Last few days have seen quite an upswing, perhaps "sell on news" - i.e profit-taking ?

edit3: Schröder just brushed off €-strength and said it'll be allright. Greater flexibility in stability pact has been achieved. :)

edit4: oops, got to quit writing - this bugger has a lot of moves in it still. Just hit 1.2860-ish.

edit5: ah, will just let it go; but nice to see that the NFP number didn't make any lasting impact - or there are some strong cattle herders out there.

edit6: whoops, and we're at 1.2880-ish again. All in a matter of seconds. Too bad I took a pause to do some typing - noone else does. :)
(am I a slow typer ? It's into 1.2890-ish now when I finished the sentence .. I guess it's .. argh, 1.29-ish .. I can't continue typing, really ... )
 
I'll just unwind a little - at least it's satisfactory to see I got it right in some ways - although it didn't exactly "creep upwards", not exactly a crawl. Just hope it settles down a little soon. Need some new consolidation area ASAP.

Looking at around 1.2870 - mid 60s I hope for a 1.2850-ish support and a consolidation above there. mid 70s again. This is some massacre the way it moves.

The continued action indicates a lot of losses during the initial strong moves. I think most of those losses will not be recouped, and we'll see some blocking of attempts to pressure it lower for big move gains. low 80s now.

This has been almost 90 minutes of mayhem now, and there will be a lot of mentally exhausted traders now - and it's friday and all - with lunch hour and european close just about 100 mins away.
 
What a day! I've been in and out bunch of trades. 30+ ticks pulled it back up from -30. I can't believe that it went over 1.29!

Edit: I was up trading after the Europen open (11 pk local time) and slept only for two hours. It wasn't worth it for 12 ticks!!

Bonds sank and didn't recover. :confused:
 
:D
1.29 will be the big digits towards the end !
(phew, I almost got short at around 1.2893 -- looking for a quick scalp - but sobered up to wait)
 
Quote from chinook:

I have a feeling that we'll retest 1.29 and then sink down...
More...

i agree with you-- there is opposition around 1.2930 on options i read so they will be trying to keep it away from that figure like yesterday..
 
Quote from fandelem:

i agree with you-- there is opposition around 1.2930 on options i read so they will be trying to keep it away from that figure like yesterday..
More...

Well, it's the ATH too (All Time High).

Thomson reports Asian central bank offers above 1.2900 in attempt to trigger 1.2915, 1.2925 and 1.2930. Some of the 1.2925s roll off today with multimillion payouts. (I smell revenge on action earlier).
Thomson also reports macro funds having a feast today, and getting heavy into the action.

edit: Thomson also mentions a big USD 12 million triggered exotic barrier at 1.3100 for november 26th expiry. Also another exotic on 1.3000. Rumoured a lot of option strikes on 1.3000 and 1.3100 were supposedly dealt before NFP data.
 
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