Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

[fandelem]

Read this at bloomberg:

``Now that we're past the election, people are rebuilding their short-dollar positions,'' said Trevor Dinmore, a currency strategist in London at Deutsche Bank AG. ``We're not far from the euro's high. It's not difficult to say we'll make an attempt on it today or tomorrow.''

 

[Gringinho]

Came back to see the lows toward the session end, and I think that it's worth a try from low 60s to se if we can't breach 1.2900 - maybe in asian or european session. US RTH session is too choppy and jittery, but I guess I could see as some type of "consolidation" being formed above 1.2850 ...

So I'm taking a little position here - a little smaller than last time, which still was quite small.

If it goes a little lower during US session, I might add a little. Mostly, it's the chart which developed today, as well as a "feel for the action" doing tape-reading which made me decide on this.

 

[Gringinho]

Just added a little here. I will have tighter stops on this one, but it's roughly half the size of the last position I had. Going into unknown territory is a little scarier.

 

[chinook]

Quote from Gringinho:

Just added a little here. I will have tighter stops on this one, but it's roughly half the size of the last position I had. Going into unknown territory is a little scarier.

Good job on your overnight position. I again ended up sleeping very late this morning. My sleep schedule is screwed up this week. In a way it was good for me since the US session was kind of choppy for me.

One advice to you regarding profit taking for position trades. Once you take your profits, you're thinking that the move is over. Then if the move continues in your original direction, you might be tended to go against it kind of like revenge trading. Watch out for it.

Profit taking vs trailing , there's no good solution. The only mentally OK way for me is scaling out and then trailing the rest of it. Then usually the temptation is to take full profits.

Make sure that you have at least some guides regarding what you'll do just in case if things go bad. Watch out for adding to losers too.

 

[fandelem]

Quote from chinook:

Good job on your overnight position. I again ended up sleeping very late this morning. My sleep schedule is screwed up this week. In a way it was good for me since the US session was kind of choppy for me.

One advice to you regarding profit taking for position trades. Once you take your profits, you're thinking that the move is over. Then if the move continues in your original direction, you might be tended to go against it kind of like revenge trading. Watch out for it.

Profit taking vs trailing , there's no good solution. The only mentally OK way for me is scaling out and then trailing the rest of it. Then usually the temptation is to take full profits.

Make sure that you have at least some guides regarding what you'll do just in case if things go bad. Watch out for adding to losers too.

chinook, which do you find yourself typically doing: if it you bought at 60, and it went to 54, and you bought again, and it went to 40, and you bought again, all with the idea that in the end, it is going to go up and you can make up that first buy at 60 ? or do you recommend when you buy at 60, have a trailing stop at like 57 to only lose like 3 pips ?

 

[Gringinho]

Quote from fandelem:

chinook, which do you find yourself typically doing: if it you bought at 60, and it went to 54, and you bought again, and it went to 40, and you bought again, all with the idea that in the end, it is going to go up and you can make up that first buy at 60 ? or do you recommend when you buy at 60, have a trailing stop at like 57 to only lose like 3 pips ?

I would like to comment on this too; since if you bought at 60 with conviction, and then at 54 .. maybe that's ok - because buying at exactly support-level / selling on resistance-level is dangerous since it's trying to breach it.
If you then buy another time on 40 - with perception that it breached some kind of support - then you're adding to a loser, most probably.
It depends on the conditions of the market and S/R levels, as well as time-horizon, but watching out for reversals is the sane thing to do as well IMO.

In my case I will watch the action a lot more careful if it goes to around 1.2830 now .. and close to my stop. If I feel convicted there is a lot of momentum I might bail out before that.
For my position now - at roughly +9 ticks average now, I still think that it will try another whack at 1.29 ... Two attempts have come close, with the latter one being the strongest.
+12 ticks now on the position - and I think the asian session will take it higher.

 

[Gringinho]

Quote from chinook:

...
One advice to you regarding profit taking for position trades. Once you take your profits, you're thinking that the move is over. Then if the move continues in your original direction, you might be tended to go against it kind of like revenge trading. Watch out for it.

Profit taking vs trailing , there's no good solution. The only mentally OK way for me is scaling out and then trailing the rest of it. Then usually the temptation is to take full profits.
...

Yes, it's easy to get into revenge-/recoup-trading when having a big winning move - when mixing styles like me.

Scaling out is something I'm quite apt at doing, but trailing is still alien to me. I don't see the benefit of trading to my style - unless above a perceived profit level - i.e I still get my profit goal and the trail back would not cross that one. In that special case I could be convinced to use trailing. E.g a trailing of 0.0004 when it reached my target goal +5 ticks and I still saw some potential upwards. But I still have some logical problems with using it ...
I think scaling out makes more sense.

As for my demo spot account ; I mentioned ridiculous gains - well, it's closing in on 400% in a few days ... but I guess I must be doing something right - even though I pull the leverage very, very high most times.

 

[chinook]

Quote from fandelem:

chinook, which do you find yourself typically doing: if it you bought at 60, and it went to 54, and you bought again, and it went to 40, and you bought again, all with the idea that in the end, it is going to go up and you can make up that first buy at 60 ? or do you recommend when you buy at 60, have a trailing stop at like 57 to only lose like 3 pips ?

Our styles and time-frames might be different here. I go for intraday swings with >30 ticks profit potential. 90% of the time, I don't add to a losing position. The only exception is sometimes I'd add while I'm entering in a new position. Lets say I entered short at 50 then it moved to 55 with low volume, I might also short at 55. So I'd only add within 5-6 ticks initially. My trailing stops are usually 10-12 ticks, maybe sometimes 20 ticks.

 

[Gringinho]

Quote from chinook:

Our styles and time-frames might be different here. I go for intraday swings with >30 ticks profit potential. 90% of the time, I don't add to a losing position. The only exception is sometimes I'd add while I'm entering in a new position. Lets say I entered short at 50 then it moved to 55 with low volume, I might also short at 55. So I'd only add within 5-6 ticks initially. My trailing stops are usually 10-12 ticks, maybe sometimes 20 ticks.

I prefer adding on heavier volume - when I see it as a range extension - quick running of stops only - but with immediate pull-back - not making any breaches - and being clear it's a get-in-opportunity. It might go back there several times - but as long as it's clear it won't breach - just play the range - I think it's "safe enough". The advantage of this is that I can get out in the middle of the range - or with very small losses depending on average entry.

 

[Gringinho]

Right now I'm +14 - still a little precarious - but it looks ready to jump back up. Any other opinions on the action now ? Still a good station to get in IMO.
We will at least see 1.2880+ tonight ... and from there it's a short way to running for the 1.2900. All that's needed above 1.2880+ is a good range extension after some choppiness or stalling - then it's a goner.