Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from Gringinho:

Got whipsawed a little on the durable goods and am down 10 pips for now. Better get into it again. :)

edit: down 4 pips now - but nice action around 1.2350 on the spot. I wouldn't have liked to be a FXCM customer today - they had a ~35 pip difference with Refco and with the futures ... They were around sub-1.23 when the futures were at 1.2330s ... :eek:

They also did a stunt up to 1.2315 a little earlier when the rest of the market fell. Just goes to show the superiority of 6E EuroFX.
:)
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I'm down about 20 pips recovered from about 40. My stops slipped twice costing extra 8 pips!
 
I'm down to about -8 ticks now. Lately, I end up on the wrong side after the eco number releases. Actually, not wrong but entries are early and usually the market trades in my original entry direction after 7-8 minutes. I need to test some fast moving average and follow that for my entry after news releases. I'll miss out 9-10 pips but at least I won't stand in front of a freight train.
 
Quote from chinook:

I'm down to about -8 ticks now. Lately, I end up on the wrong side after the eco number releases. Actually, not wrong but entries are early and usually the market trades in my original entry direction after 7-8 minutes. I need to test some fast moving average and follow that for my entry after news releases. I'll miss out 9-10 pips but at least I won't stand in front of a freight train.
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You sound more and more like a scalper there ... :)
("forced into" scalping on numbers action?)
Tough markets with these conditions lately, but looking on the moves with some calm sense we tested some important levels and got a good indication of what can be done.
Now 1.24 seems even more likely.


[13:14 EUR/USD: On the Offered Side, 1.2280/90 Stops Eyed] Boston, September 24: Financial carnage continues in EUR/USD with longs taken on the spike to 1.2360/65 now suffering through a pullback. Dealers see stops gathering in the 1.2280/90 area which could open up a test of key support at 1.2250/55. Price action is extremely sloppy. Dealers are keeping an eye on short-dated US interest rates and note Eurodollar futures are down 4-5 ticks after the data, a source of support for the greenback.

[13:01 EUR/USD: Back To 1.2330 Support After Spike] Boston, September 24: EUR/USD is back to 1.2330 support after topping out near 1.2365. Macro and model funds were big buyers on the spike higher, forcing some delta hedging from accounts that are short options, taking advantage of range-bound markets. Some of the investment banks are upping their Q3 US GDP forecasts after the rise in durable goods ex-transportation, which could be helping cool the EUR/USD rally. Barriers are seen in the 1.2370/75 area, on up through 1.2400.

Rallies through 1.2345 resistance as bullish momentum picks up. In the bigger picture price action spiked through the trendline again today after failing to close above there for a second time this week yesterday. The lack of follow through is a concern for the bulls but daily trend studies are still ticking higher and show potential for a 1.2385 test. [12:52GMT]
 
Another scalp from the minislide here from 1.23 and I'm up 19 pips with 9 pips commission. I guess I should have stayed in for another 10 pips down, but like I say - I take the profits and run - sometimes at predetermined targets.

[13:54 EUR/USD: Rising US Yields Shaking Confidence Of Longs] Boston, September 24: EUR/USD bulls are having their confidence shaken as dealers nervously eye rising US yields in the wake of the hawkish FOMC minutes yesterday. Stops are eyed in the 1.2280/90 level and with the market overwhelming long, it could get ugly. More are seen on a break of 1.2250/55.

[13:56 GMT 24th Sept] Option Barriers have been knocked out at 1.2350 and 1.2360 but barriers still remain at 1.2370, 1.2375, 1.2380 and every 10-pips back to the 1.2420. Who says option traders are original? The rise higher in [EUR/USD] on the surface seems a tad confusing. Durable goods orders fell 0.5% in August following a revised 1.8% gain in July (previously 1.6%). However excluding the transportation component durable goods orders were up 2.3%. The result compared to expectations for a 0.1% gain but with a -2.4% to 2.0% range of forecasts it was anybody's guess. This is a notoriously difficult number to forecast. Civilian aircraft orders pulled back sharply, dragging the headline figure lower. So the sudden weakening in the USD must have been based on something else, however focusing back on [EUR/USD] for a second the immediate road higher is no clear for the pair, now that it has settled back and trades between 1.2320 and 1.2330. Stops are now seen below 1.2280 and these could be under pressure into the European close and a break below here could send trading to retest 1.2250, but having failed there four times already its unlikely to go any lower.

edit:
.. and that 1.2280 level is fierce ... It just broke now, though, but gave some good support. Possibly a nice bounce later on this.

[14:23 EUR/USD: Dips Below 1.2290 Pullback Lows] Boston, September 24: EUR/USD pulled back below 1.2290, the low seen after the durable goods data, tripping a round of stops. Larger stops are seen below 1.2250. 1.2255 has been good support on pullbacks the last two sessions.

It's tripping allright. :D
I'm +22 and 11 now.
 
Quote from chinook:

I'm doing terrible today. I'm in disaster recovery mode. Again I ended up overtrading!
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I'm overtrading here too -- 31 R/Ts. It's extremely taxing on one's mind of state - and feels like a caffeine-rush (I don't drink coffe or coke,pepsi). Some of my trades swing 10 points negative - and I can recover within 1-2 ticks negative most times - and if they go 2 ticks positive I take the deal.

Traders are straining like yesterday, and it's probably best to stay outta this hair ... it's freaking friday after all. There are going to be lots of positions closing. It will probably hurt longs more throughout the day.
 
Quote from chinook:

CME is adjusting margins. New margin For EC is $2700 down from $3240.
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Good news for the market! Maybe they can see themselves lowering fees as well ? :p

Now we're going down - sliding a slippery friday trading.

edit:
[14:41 EUR/USD: More Stops Below 1.2270, 1.2250] Boston, September 24: Dealers note more stops below the 1.2270 level but the bulk are seen below 1.2250. 1.2230 is support beyond that. Buying strength looks like it will prove to be a disastrous strategy in EUR/USD once again. Asian bids appear to be making a return on dips at the moment, a not unknown scenario. Widening interest rate differentials are helping the greenback along the recovery trail 2-year spreads are now 8 bp in favor of the dollar, a 16 bp swing since early in the week, after the Fed hiked rates and indicated more are on the way.


Seems QMZ4 traders also have had a see-sawing day so far. Oil is ping-pong'ing it's way down.

edit2:
oops, writing does hinder jumping into some good slides, although I've only gotten into 2 of them today.

edit3:
it happens time over again; writing and there it goes. Well, only a spike down now it seemed. At least now I'm +26 on 33 trades - roughly 12 tick commissions. I don't think I've traded this much since I really bombed one day on the ES - just to end up b/e but with commissions dragging equity down.

Gotta prepare for another 2yr olds birthday (friend of my son), so better stop now. There will probably be something resembling a bit more "trending" towards the end of the session - unless everyone are as exhausted as me - and we stay around the 1.2250 - 1.2290 area. :)
Have a calm weekend!


[15:11 EUR/USD: Grinding Toward Lows; Stops Eyed] Boston, September 24: Sub-1.2250 stops are in sight now with long-liquidation ahead of the weekend the present theme. News of a "high value target" being captured in Iraq (according to Fox) is helping boost the dollar as is a rebound in US interest rates. Asian buyers are seen on dips, covering shorts after selling the earlier rally.
 
Quote from Gringinho:

I'm overtrading here too -- 31 R/Ts. It's extremely taxing on one's mind of state - and feels like a caffeine-rush (I don't drink coffe or coke,pepsi). Some of my trades swing 10 points negative - and I can recover within 1-2 ticks negative most times - and if they go 2 ticks positive I take the deal.

Traders are straining like yesterday, and it's probably best to stay outta this hair ... it's freaking friday after all. There are going to be lots of positions closing. It will probably hurt longs more throughout the day.
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I know the exact feeling. I was tired this morning too. And all these trades, I screwed things up. This is why I try to keep the plan simple. When I start overtrading I go into shorter timeframes where I don't have a well defined plan.

Yes the buyers seem to be hiding now. Now I think there might be some buying.
 
Anyone short the EUR/USD between 9am and now? Pretty good stuff.

I used to trade equity/stocks, and actually find the forex more profitable in the longer run, and more stable. Goodbye to equity, here I come forex...
 
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