Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Thanks for the great reply Gringinho.

I'm surprised at the amount of Japanese in SP??

I'm staying at the Marriot - not sure where this is.

I'll try out your recommendations... I enjoy good beef, especially. After the hike I'm off to the Amazon and then 4 days in Rio - should be awsome trip although it looks like I'll be missing out on some good action in the FX Markets....
 
Quote from csaunders:

Thanks for the great reply Gringinho.
I'm surprised at the amount of Japanese in SP??
I'm staying at the Marriot - not sure where this is.

I'll try out your recommendations... I enjoy good beef, especially. After the hike I'm off to the Amazon and then 4 days in Rio - should be awsome trip although it looks like I'll be missing out on some good action in the FX Markets....
More...

I guess you're staying at the Airport Marriot hotel then - which is quite a longhaul from the city. Going to Morumbi district - below the World Trade center and SP Hilton Morumbi, Morumbi shopping and of course Avenida Paulista should be ok then. There are a lot of things to see and do. There's a fabolous steak restaourant in the far corner below the D&D shopping - below WTC etc, but try the Teriyaki File-Mignon at the japanese restaurant - excellent.

Actually Koizumi - the japanese PM - was in SP just now - and visited his parents there. :)

I absolutely detest RJ, esp. the airport there and do my best to avoid it when travelling. :)

Lots of good eco-tourism in the Amazones, but crime is part of all of Brazil - even there (if you're going to the brazilian part of the Amazones). Actually most of the roughly 50 000 slaves (forced labour, armed guards etc.) in Brazil are working on farmland there - mostly clearing forest etc. Funnily enough, 2-3m high concrete walls around properties/houses are also found there.

edit: At least (non-crime related) terrorism is low in Brazil.

[14:51 AUD/USD: New Terror Worries In Australia May Limit Rise] New York, September 22: Aussie has performed well today, but a story out of Sydney may halt the positive sentiment toward AUD. A report on www.new.com.au says that an improvised explosive device was found in the hold of a Virgin Atlantic plane at Sydney"s airport. Workers actually took the package, containing thermite (explosive in grenades) into the terminal to get x-rayed. It raises red warning flags as Australia has become a prime target in the war on terror with its support for the war in Iraq and the coming national elections. AUD/USD is holding on to strength garnered earlier and many see large option expirations later this week between 0.7025/60 as helping to curb price action. This news story may help those looking at the left-hand side of the price equation and soften prices.
 
Quote from Gringinho:

I guess you're staying at the Airport Marriot hotel then - which is quite a longhaul from the city. Going to Morumbi district - below the World Trade center and SP Hilton Morumbi, Morumbi shopping and of course Avenida Paulista should be ok then. There are a lot of things to see and do. There's a fabolous steak restaourant in the far corner below the D&D shopping - below WTC etc, but try the Teriyaki File-Mignon at the japanese restaurant - excellent.

Actually Koizumi - the japanese PM - was in SP just now - and visited his parents there. :)

I absolutely detest RJ, esp. the airport there and do my best to avoid it when travelling. :)

Lots of good eco-tourism in the Amazones, but crime is part of all of Brazil - even there (if you're going to the brazilian part of the Amazones). Actually most of the roughly 50 000 slaves (forced labour, armed guards etc.) in Brazil are working on farmland there - mostly clearing forest etc. Funnily enough, 2-3m high concrete walls around properties/houses are also found there.
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Yup I suppose we are in transit although I'd like to experience SP - I'll try your recommendation and let you know if I concur ;) - otherwise you'll have to come to "The ButcherShop" in Johannesburg and we can compare notes :)

Nope - we are doing the Peru side of the Amazon - going into it clueless - so hope will be a great eco-experience.

Why the dislike of RdJ? Living in JHB I know about crime and being aware...

Sorry Chinook for cluttering the thread with Travel Talk although I'm quite amazed at the coincidence.
 
Quote from csaunders:

Yup I suppose we are in transit although I'd like to experience SP - I'll try your recommendation and let you know if I concur ;) - otherwise you'll have to come to "The ButcherShop" in Johannesburg and we can compare notes :)

Nope - we are doing the Peru side of the Amazon - going into it clueless - so hope will be a great eco-experience.

Why the dislike of RdJ? Living in JHB I know about crime and being aware...

Sorry Chinook for cluttering the thread with Travel Talk although I'm quite amazed at the coincidence.
More...

That's OK. I like it! This is part of the job anyway to relax and interact little bit.

Chinook
 
Seems like stops are being run again with these funky moves.

Oil inventories fell a lot and we might see some even stranger moves given the last days and the european close coming up soon.

edit: the last two move seems like just that - shakeouts.

I dislike RJ because of the crime, the favelas/slums splattered around the center of the city, and the hopeless airport with it's corrupt officials all over. The police in RJ are extremely corrupt, and many rob people. Drug lords have the city by the balls many times, and M-16 fire and grenades are daily incidents between police and drug-gangs in the favelas. The police kill a lot of innocent there too. In 20 years 600 000 people have been murdered in Brazil - most of them in RJ.

[14:58 FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD 1 Week Vol Offered sub-8.0%] London, September 22: 1 week implied option volatility is currently offered at a session low 7.8 pct, from 9.0 pct at the European open, with the fact that spot is trading more than a cent below the base of the 1.2350-1.2400 exotic barrier zone helping weigh. Key 1 week support is located at Monday"s 12-month low of 6.75/7.75, with resistance now pegged at 8.0 pct. Further out on the curve, the 1mth 8.4/8.6 last, having been 8.65/8.85 early Europe, and at risk of a pre-weekend revisit of Monday"s 21-month low of 8.2/8.4, if spot holds sub-1.2350. Expiry-wise: a large 1.2350 plain-vanilla option rolls off at the NY cut tomorrow (Thursday, 14:00GMT), alongside a large 1.2175 strike.
 
Yes, stops are being run on both sides. Crude oil is gyrating back and forth correlating well with the EurUsd recent moves. Meanwhile bonds are rising.

I've been in and out several times, trading the long side. Barely breaking even for now. I'm still dreaming for a long rally...

Chinook
 
I just beat myself over missed opportunities on the short side, but got a 2-pip long instead. Until we break 1.2260 - and go over 1.2265 I won't look at 1.2280 any soon I think.
It's difficult to decide if positions are dangerous, or just will stay within range for the next day or so. It still seems shorts above 1.2240 are ok for now.
Any stalling now, would take away that opportunity.

edit:
csaunders, the main problem is that minors under 18 are not prosecuted so they're used for all kinds of crimes by ganglords etc. and gun laws are very lax.
 
Rio sounds pretty scary although I'll try and stay out of harms way...

Chinook - I'm still betting on EURUSD down - although this hold up has me worried - looking at the daily picture I feel more reassured. Lets see what transpires overnight - I hope EUR does not decide to test 2350 again and give up the ghost - wouldn't it be great if markets moved in straighter lines instead of chop suey fashion.

See you guys later.
 
Now the action around 1.2250+ levels are making me overtrade a bit - a few 1-pip losses and then a nice short to recoup with some profits on the action.

I think we'll see 1.2280 today if we don't get back to the 1.2230 ranges for testing ... The market needs to get even.
 
I'm kind of clueless now. Bond and oil action are pointing upwards. I'll continue buying dips. Maybe this is the "final assault" before moving up.

Chinook
 
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