Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from jbt:

Chinook,
I've been experimenting with scaling and position sizing 250 pips back on stop with a total pip loss "budget" of 2500 pips that means I have VERY small positions on initially and scale in when it goes against me. This is a range methodology, And since I think we still stay in range for the foreseeable future it been working very well for me. I notice that by having tight stops you seem to give back a lot of what you make. I suggest you try my method to see it's more profitable -- BUT you must understand scale. IE to trade like this your initial position is 1/10 to 1/12th your normal position,
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This strategy is completely different than mine. I think you are trading longer time frames and looking for 200-300 pip moves? I'm more like looking for intraday 30+ tick swings. As long as we're in a range you'll milk nice $$$$ :) My main trading philosophy is not to make any longer term predictions since these lead to strong prejudices for me. That's why I feel comfortable in my own time-frame.

Chinook
 
Quote from csaunders:

I had a similar sop story - about 3 losses in a row - and made it back and more when getting in long (finally).

Put in a small short at 96 with a tight stop - lets see..
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Did you stay with your short? If you endured the long chop, you would have made decent profit...

Chinook
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

Where do you guys get all your FX news? I found this service, but I am not real fond of these sort of services.

http://www.camaliforex.com/research1.htm

Michael B.
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You are always welcome to read mine. It's free everyday at US Open Market points at www.dailyfx.com or www.refconews.com also www.fxstreet.com is the best portal in the world. They also publish my monthly and weekly coverage of the majors as well as every piece of research you can possibly find.
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

What does this mean? Sounds interesting.

250 pips back on stop?

Could you give an example?

Do you trade any particular pair?

Michael B.
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ES I trade the majors and occasionally the Aussie and GBP crosses for which you have to have a LOT b-lls.

If you believe -- as I do -- that we are range trading for a while then you have have a general idea of where top zone for range is. For example I would start scale short in eur/usd at 1.2350 up to 1.2600 that a 250 pip stop back.Why? Well I am assuming 10K account 2.5% equity hard stop. Just MM rule. I couldn't care about R/S levels fib retraces MACD, Stoch BB execpt as cursory secondary data. I am strictly "get me close" fundamental trader. To get an idea you may want to read my article in this month's SFO www.sfomag.com (unfortunately not free!) called Event Driven trading in Forex.

However within that range I will chop my size into 1/10 or even 1/12th -actually I will parabollically size ie my last lot size will be 5 to 7 times larger than my 1st lot size. And then I will scalp like crazy for 20 -30 pips up and keep a few lots for 100+ moves. Why?
1.I Can never let profits run.
2.I am almost always early and almost always wrong initially
3.By scalping I satisfy my need for instant gratification
4.By letting at least a tiny portion run I try to do the right thing with at least a portion of my position

what's wrong with this set-up? If we trend it will kill you. For example I thought cable would hold 1.80-1.85 range-- WRONG! So you will take hits. But bottom line FX ranges 80% of the time. Coinz god bless the crazy m-f was right about that. Amidst his madness there was some truth.

Anyway that's it in a nutshell. Of course I left out all the important stuff -- like how do you analyse the zones, how wide do you scale in, do you always go till the stop or do you cover early sometimes? But hey that's what discretionary trading is for.You want a system - go engineer a sewage plant. The market wont comply :)
 
Quote from chinook:

This strategy is completely different than mine. I think you are trading longer time frames and looking for 200-300 pip moves? I'm more like looking for intraday 30+ tick swings. As long as we're in a range you'll milk nice $$$$ :) My main trading philosophy is not to make any longer term predictions since these lead to strong prejudices for me. That's why I feel comfortable in my own time-frame.

Chinook
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Chinook look at my reply to ES. 200 pip moves! I only wish. My only concern with your method is that it is highly vulnerable to dealer noise. Perhaps you have much better feel for order flow -- I know I dont. So I have to give myself a lot wider zone of opportunity.
 
Jbt,

Thank you for such a complete reply. Wow, I am out of my league here. I had no idea that such qualified people were posting to Chinook's thread. I have a long way to go to digest all of this.

To be successfull with Forex trading, requires much more fundamental research and more emphasis on news than the other instruments that I have traded. I am a Technical trader and must ease into this. Your method seems to match my style, but your right, one can get killed when there is a sustained trend.

Thank you Again...

Michael B.

P.S. My trouble sometimes is that I must tighten every nut and bolt and I get hung up in the details. By the way, Coinzy was not a team player and it was all about him. But he might of had a system and mixed in some truth.

Quote from jbt:

ES I trade the majors and occasionally the Aussie and GBP crosses for which you have to have a LOT b-lls.

If you believe -- as I do -- that we are range trading for a while then you have have a general idea of where top zone for range is. For example I would start scale short in eur/usd at 1.2350 up to 1.2600 that a 250 pip stop back.Why? Well I am assuming 10K account 2.5% equity hard stop. Just MM rule. I couldn't care about R/S levels fib retraces MACD, Stoch BB execpt as cursory secondary data. I am strictly "get me close" fundamental trader. To get an idea you may want to read my article in this month's SFO www.sfomag.com (unfortunately not free!) called Event Driven trading in Forex.

However within that range I will chop my size into 1/10 or even 1/12th -actually I will parabollically size ie my last lot size will be 5 to 7 times larger than my 1st lot size. And then I will scalp like crazy for 20 -30 pips up and keep a few lots for 100+ moves. Why?
1.I Can never let profits run.
2.I am almost always early and almost always wrong initially
3.By scalping I satisfy my need for instant gratification
4.By letting at least a tiny portion run I try to do the right thing with at least a portion of my position

what's wrong with this set-up? If we trend it will kill you. For example I thought cable would hold 1.80-1.85 range-- WRONG! So you will take hits. But bottom line FX ranges 80% of the time. Coinz god bless the crazy m-f was right about that. Amidst his madness there was some truth.

Anyway that's it in a nutshell. Of course I left out all the important stuff -- like how do you analyse the zones, how wide do you scale in, do you always go till the stop or do you cover early sometimes? But hey that's what discretionary trading is for.You want a system - go engineer a sewage plant. The market wont comply :)
More...
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:

Jbt,


By the way, Coinzy was not a team player and it was all about him. But he might of had a system and mixed in some truth.
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The same thought occurred to me. :)
 
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