Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from Andy62279:

it is easier said than done... but it can be done.

btw, you mentioned why you want to develop a shorter term method, but what's causing you to make that decision? school, work?

I am opposite of you. I trade when the market tells me its time. What got me interested in forex is that it's 24 hrs and I could trade whenever I want. As I was learning I learned that it doesn't quite work that way.
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I think it will allow me to focus on forex when trading and on other things when not trading. I probably would think 'what is the market doing right now?' if I hold open positions when not actively trading. That is just a guess, don't know how I will behave when trading normal size (1/2 lots).

What I want to achieve is anticipate market behavior (both fundamental en technical I find interesting), feel the action (but not when doing other things), and make some nice profits.

Don't know which style suits my goals better.
 
In the short interim (1145-1200) I think we may see a fight to 1.3050 and then a drop .. I heard there were barriers around 1.3050 ... though the real big pay off option contract is at 1.3100 next week so the rumors say..

edit: looks like it only made it to about 1.3041
 
Quote from TradingWise:

I think it will allow me to focus on forex when trading and on other things when not trading. I probably would think 'what is the market doing right now?' if I hold open positions when not actively trading. That is just a guess, don't know how I will behave when trading normal size (1/2 lots).

What I want to achieve is anticipate market behavior (both fundamental en technical I find interesting), feel the action (but not when doing other things), and make some nice profits.

Don't know which style suits my goals better.
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i think having a specific plan can help relieve some of the anxiety that comes with trading. It can be a little different with more money on the line.... but should it have to?
 
Quote from Andy62279:

i think having a specific plan can help relieve some of the anxiety that comes with trading. It can be a little different with more money on the line.... but should it have to?
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Sure, because losing more than a normal day's gains is going to cost you. There are stop-limits to trades, and there are limits to daily losses as well.

It seems the USDJPY cross is more extreme than the "puny" jump for the €$. There has been increased focus, pressure on asian currencies towards the USD - ad maybe we will see more spillover which would put the € more into limbo.
 
Quote from V-Viper:

This thread got 50k+ views!

Going lower, might go long next time it nears 1.3010
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I think it's safer to assume a short position from around highs, if possible. Breaking the 1.3050 does require some effort - while reatracing would be easier to start snowballing. Profit-taking etc. could easily contribute.

I think I have around 700-800 posts in this thread. I wish I could count it somehow.
(I had my 500th post just before I went on summer holiday - then I've mostly posted here after the holiday.)

I remember seeing some very large threads before with "part I" , "part II" etc., but I odn't think it had so many pages. Not sure though.

edit: Some statistics - after some casually searching:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=26299&highlight=part+thread+closed
This thread has more than 100 views per post

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=29553&highlight=part+thread+closed
This thread has 50 views per post - but almost 100k views

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=35915&highlight=part+thread+closed
This thread had 2807 posts and 130k+ views


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=9727&highlight=thread+closed
This thread has 200+ views per post - wow!

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=3121&highlight=thread+closed
These were the thread parts I was talking about .. a long time ago. I guess database resources are better now.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=4305&highlight=thread+closed
Things were running hot before as well.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=14129&highlight=thread+closed
195k+ views.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=29005&highlight=thread+closed
500 views per post.

In the journals - the Don's openings collection would be the winner perhaps - with all it's parts ?
 
I still can't believe it finnaly broke 1.3, think its going to come back to 1.29~~ anytime soon? Lots of support were there was once a ton of resistance!
 
Does anyone smell a bull trap?

Some open orders statistics shows more stop-buys than limit sells past 1.305-1.306. Of course, it's as accurate as an exit pool on election day.
 
Quote from Maxprofit$:

Does anyone smell a bull trap?

Some open orders statistics shows more stop-buys than limit sells past 1.305-1.306. Of course, it's as accurate as an exit pool on election day.
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"Everyone" got stopped out above 1.2310. So I think that is the reason for this.

I don't think it's a bull-trap per se, but rather indecision. The USDJPY slide 2 hours before the 1.3010+ break of course helped it along. I wish I had taken a better look when I woke up, but with roughly 2-3 minutes between me waking up and the €$ sky-rocketing .. I really would have had to get up a little earlier.

The €$ was nothing compared to the USDJPY though, and 103.50 is intervention-area for BOJ - or so was speculated - so it was quite surprising and impressive.

EURJPY has also taken some of the brunt off the €$ move alone, and this has gotten enough attention to make it important - and the 1.3000 now just seems like a bit of noise. The JPY is the real mover.

I guess JPY has been designated to 'it' by US names as well - or more interestingly would be european names. :)
Maybe the rumoured Japanese face-saving for the G20 meeting has some substance, or at least some big-wigs putting their bets.
 
Quote from Maxprofit$:

Does anyone smell a bull trap?

Some open orders statistics shows more stop-buys than limit sells past 1.305-1.306. Of course, it's as accurate as an exit pool on election day.
More...

Thomson puts their ideas into the mix:
"US/German interest rate differentials have collapsed today as macro funds book
profits. 10-year spreads were above 50 bp earlier and now sit at 43. Demand for
the Treasury side of the trade has seen US yields drop 10 bp from the open
today. EUR/USD has to be sold as a result and is helping keep a lid on the pair."
 
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