Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
If I have a bias for one side of the market, it's very hard to see the other size. Like today, my bias is long. Why? Because I think the EUR will rise further after passing a major support level. Maybe this is good for longer term trades, but today I entered long at 40, before being stopped out at 25. The bias makes it hard to see the other size of the market on a shorter term.
Better US inventories should be positive for USD, so EUR/USD bearish.
Better US inventories should be positive for USD, so EUR/USD bearish.
Yet the surplus was lower than expected (1bn was expected I believe) and we decline. So there must be other factors in the decline (overbought, etc) I assume...
I think if you had this impression early in the morning, you would be rich, my friend. But you bought close to the highmark of the day already.. if you thought longer term (say, 1 week) then you are correct, EUR will continue to rise....
Yes, but I had the idea that the retracement would only be short (10 pip), just like a few bars back (11:05/11:15 bar high/low). The bias stopped me from seeing that this might be a larger retracement.
Thomson reports:
"[15:51 EUR/USD: Spreads Narrow; Funds Taking Profits] Boston, November 17:
US/German interest rate differentials are narrowing today despite the jump in US
CPI and the stronger industrial production data. A large European fund is
reported by Dow Jones to be taking profits on long bund/short Treasury
positions, helping narrow the spread to 46 bp in the 10 year maturity from a
high of 52 BP yesterday, narrowing the greenback's interest rate advantage.
EUR/USD is coming under pressure, perhaps on the back of currency flows linked
to the unwinding of the bond trades, trading at 1.3010. Oil has turned lower
again after a modest rally after distillate inventories fell last week. 1.3005
is support."
"[15:51 EUR/USD: Spreads Narrow; Funds Taking Profits] Boston, November 17:
US/German interest rate differentials are narrowing today despite the jump in US
CPI and the stronger industrial production data. A large European fund is
reported by Dow Jones to be taking profits on long bund/short Treasury
positions, helping narrow the spread to 46 bp in the 10 year maturity from a
high of 52 BP yesterday, narrowing the greenback's interest rate advantage.
EUR/USD is coming under pressure, perhaps on the back of currency flows linked
to the unwinding of the bond trades, trading at 1.3010. Oil has turned lower
again after a modest rally after distillate inventories fell last week. 1.3005
is support."
If I am on the right side of the market
Most of the time not, because it makes it hard to see the other side of the market. It would probably help if I traded longer term (like 100 pip +), but I am trying to develop shorter term trading so I can trade when I want, and stop when I want (don't have to hold positions when I am not looking at the charts). So minor trends (for 10/20/30 pip).
You could say I should drop the bias, but that is easier said than done.
Sorry for late reply, but I think the thin action we saw earlier is still going to be the prevailent pattern until something triggers it. Most likely an external matter - let's say a comment, or crude oil etc. It seems this last week and a half has been into these ranges, but now we're "in extension".
Quote from TradingWise:
If I am on the right side of the market
Most of the time not, because it makes it hard to see the other side of the market. It would probably help if I traded longer term (like 100 pip +), but I am trying to develop shorter term trading so I can trade when I want, and stop when I want (don't have to hold positions when I am not looking at the charts). So minor trends (for 10/20/30 pip).
You could say I should drop the bias, but that is easier said than done.
it is easier said than done... but it can be done.
btw, you mentioned why you want to develop a shorter term method, but what's causing you to make that decision? school, work?
I am opposite of you. I trade when the market tells me its time. What got me interested in forex is that it's 24 hrs and I could trade whenever I want. As I was learning I learned that it doesn't quite work that way.