can price action predict market moves

On such random patterns that got you in at the first time you can generally only make good on the loss by increasing your bet size, which often leads to a martingale approach. In the end that is why so many traders fail, they pick up pennies in front of the steam roller and every now and then easily gamble away 10% or so of their account because it only takes this one out of x times to not reverse.

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I don't normally do this, but I'll bite here on a trade I made this morning.

First circle is the long signal based on a pattern, Event A. Expected movement did not occur, held into drawdown. Because A did not occur then, probability of B increased. What is B? The subsequent 2 circles. When A fails, it allows one to get out at breakeven; this is what Jesse Livermore says when you could have gotten out at breakeven, known as pattern B. We all have own names for them. The market broke above and allowed reentry on the final, tiny circle. However, the probability had been reduced at that point due to correlations among other vehicles. This is how one can trade with a high probability of a win or breakeven. The TSLA trade also did this, yet we can see it worked out AH because the trade occurred later; I expect a gap down on TSLA tomorrow or a red day. If it gaps above, it should test the aforementioned 668.43 level as an event type.
 
On such random patterns that got you in at the first time you can generally only make good on the loss by increasing your bet size, which often leads to a martingale approach. In the end that is why so many traders fail, they pick up pennies in front of the steam roller and every now and then easily gamble away 10% or so of their account because it only takes this one out of x times to not reverse.

You assume they are random. However, IF the trades follow something even as bad as 60% profit, 20% b/e, 20% loss, and the win moves are statistically significant, then this is not a problem. Keep in mind, many trades are actually on the extreme, and thus a scale out approach in the cases when extreme catch is made allows for runners. To make a loss is quite rare, and a single loss does often eat several small winners. Again, I refer you to the spreadsheet I posted earlier (that thread also contains links to other threads which I made spanning even years ago) and if you don't count that as evidence, there is still the C2 (which I no longer trade on, as I am trading a large private account for a portion of the profits made) which has the greatest risk adjusted returns on the site (not counting single home runs of others)
 
I need to prove absolutely nothing. I claimed something and you can talk to as many people as you like and derive at a balanced conclusion. Take my experience or not, entirely your choice.

You claimed something you can’t prove or back up. And I already arrived at a balanced conclusion. :)
 
The largest danger I see with charts is that they mislead and do not allow for a rigorous quantitative approach. It's never an in or out, always a maybe, possibly...

this is a well known phenomena called volatility clustering, there's lots of research on this. charts are actually very ill equipped to analyze this. and there are better ways of spotting this.
 
You assume they are random. However, IF the trades follow something even as bad as 60% profit, 20% b/e, 20% loss, and the win moves are statistically significant, then this is not a problem. Keep in mind, many trades are actually on the extreme, and thus a scale out approach in the cases when extreme catch is made allows for runners. To make a loss is quite rare, and a single loss does often eat several small winners. Again, I refer you to the spreadsheet I posted earlier (that thread also contains links to other threads which I made spanning even years ago) and if you don't count that as evidence, there is still the C2 (which I no longer trade on, as I am trading a large private account for a portion of the profits made) which has the greatest risk adjusted returns on the site (not counting single home runs of others)
Are you billy hwang?!

Lol but seriously, you making money on your trading has nothing to do with you using a bad signal. You are making an attribution error by explaining your returns with your chart signal. What are you are likely profiting from is liquidity provisioning or intra-day momentum/reversal. For the former, the best signals are liquidity pre-trade, and for the latter, it's the slope of returns.

I've sat on a trading floor on both the sell side and buy side for 8+yrs, I've seen the gamut of strategies and no one uses charts to trade because they are very bad at representing what is actually going on. They are, however, visually appealing.

Good analogy would be a chef applying salt to their meal. "Grab and sprinkle salt until you start to see them pooling" is inferior to saying "eyeball 1 tspn" which is inferior to just using a teaspoon to measure and apply your salt.
 
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