Do ancient techniques not display consistent behavior across thousands of years? The compelling force behind traders buying silk and selling it at a point of exchange is commonly recurrent in spite of short term flux. I can predict intraday movement years in advance, as can other users of ancient methods.
can price action predict market moves
- Thread starter geth03
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Do ancient techniques not display consistent behavior across thousands of years? The compelling force behind traders buying silk and selling it at a point of exchange is commonly recurrent in spite of short term flux. I can predict intraday movement years in advance, as can other users of ancient methods.
Speculators attempt to front run others, which is what I explained in my post.
Nope. People gamble all the time despite their being no winning gambling strategy (besides cheating). Speculative front running is an attempt to (legally) cheat.
How many samples are required to determine statistical significance?
So if I win a trade, n=1, and I'm 100%? Woo!Depends on the size of population, smart guy
But yeah I've posted the prediction thread before, roughly 90% accuracy for half a year and over 50 trades
Shorted the AMD high today but closed for measly profit before the big drop. EoD things... I'd posit that failure types are also significant, as they can mean the difference between a large loss and breakeven.
This is the wrong type of analysis.
You should pay me dissertation fees for this but.. say you have this hypothesis that a pattern is predictive and results in a profit. So your first goal is to go through history and see how many occurrences there are in your data set. Then you can test to see how profitable they are after X holding periods. Even that is very cursory and shouldn’t be used as the basis for a trading strategy. You’ll want to try to disprove your hypothesis as much as possible (and the more it holds up, the more robust it is, and the more actionable of a strat it will be).
Trading process:
1- a trade idea: your hypothesis, initial research, and theory for why something is happening
2- live position: the test of your hypothesis
3- scale into/exit: hypothesis is strong/(weak) means add/(exit)
This is what I've been doing for a long time. Let me add to it:
Many of the past so called 'greats' have said, in different ways, that different stocks have different personalities. That is, certain patterns work better for different vehicles. Therefore, pattern success is expected to occur more often on Stock X than Stock Y.
A correlated asset which displays a pattern of even negative reward expectancy yet statistical significance of event types, allows for use of timing X with the use of Y. Thus, X can be traded when no pattern exists, as well as using expected failure of a pattern.
Condition determination to know when those patterns work or fail... believe it or not, they are the same even in volatility. This requires the use of Poisson distributions with Markov chains... sounds complicated but it isn't. Let's say that Possibilities A, B, and C can occur (rather than Gaussian distributions of price. Has its place). Because A happened already, should mean B and C event type may fail. However, because possibility A and B failed, means C can only be correct. This can be used even when the initial pattern fails because the possibility of an indeterminate pattern exists; a pattern which contains multiple no-negative expectancies improves the chances of no losses. This is why imo classical r:r isn't the best idea.
@stockpredictor are you able to predict every stock movement or just a few