Breaking: PHOTOS RELEASED of Suspect Michael Brown ROBBING STORE Before Shooting

One of the books I am reading is the little book of behavioral investing, how to not be your own worst enemy. In the book they discuss several biases humans have. There have been numerous studies where various groups (traders, handicappers, psychologists) are presented a little bit of data, asked to assess the situation, describe what they think is going on, AND describe their level of confidence in their prediction. Subsequently they are given more data and asked to explain the situation and their confidence level in it. THis continues until an incredibly large amount of data gets presented.

The results were:
Few change their mind with new data. It is as if they do not want to acknowledge they are wrong.
Reported confidence levels increase with more data.
Accuracy of judgement decreases with more data.

When I hear of cases like Trayvon and the one going on right now, I recognize that I know very little about the situation and I have low confidence in any of my opinions.

Don't believe everything you think.

Read the book, adapt your trading, adapt your opinions of what gets reported.
 
Money Trust said:
Actually, I used to work in security and when you're working a property, you have a right to trail someone just as long as you keep a certain distance. If Florida's laws are anything like Georgia's laws, the Zimmerman did nothing wrong. In the end, Trayvon Martin got what he deserved. Maybe the next thug will learn how to respond like a civilized person when asked questions by an authority figure.
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Agreed. By "escalating" I did not mean following. As that in and of itself is not an escalation of the situation.
 
Lucrum said:
Agreed. By "escalating" I did not mean following. As that in and of itself is not an escalation of the situation.
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I was agreeing with you but stating from my experience in the field that the "following" wasn't an unlawful act like some have been trying to claim.
 
dbphoenix said:
And how do we know that Martin didn't know about the gun? And why was the alleged assault unwise? Was Zimmerman uniformed? Was he even trained?
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The facts of this case are now well-established in the trial transcripts. Are you attempting to re-write history or just conveniently ignoring the facts?
 
gwb-trading said:
The facts of this case are now well-established in the trial transcripts. Are you attempting to re-write history or just conveniently ignoring the facts?
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There are facts and there are facts. There were no reliable witnesses, only the 911 call, and the dispatcher discouraged him from following Martin. He said "okay" then went ahead and followed him anyway. If Rachel Jeantel's testimony is accepted, Martin turned around and confronted Zimmerman, who was not wearing a uniform, wanting to know why he was following him. Zimmerman then either assaulted him, or Martin assaulted Zimmerman. Nobody knows for sure. But Martin apparently wound up on top, banging Zimmerman's head against the ground until Zimmerman shot him.

What would you do if you were walking home in a semi-darkened neighborhood and somebody who looks like Zimmerman starts following you for no apparent reason?
 
dbphoenix said:
There are facts and there are facts. There were no reliable witnesses, only the 911 call, and the dispatcher discouraged him from following Martin. He said "okay" then went ahead and followed him anyway. If Rachel Jeantel's testimony is accepted, Martin turned around and confronted Zimmerman, who was not wearing a uniform, wanting to know why he was following him. Zimmerman then either assaulted him, or Martin assaulted Zimmerman. Nobody knows for sure. But Martin apparently wound up on top, banging Zimmerman's head against the ground until Zimmerman shot him.

What would you do if you were walking home in a semi-darkened neighborhood and somebody who looks like Zimmerman starts following you for no apparent reason?
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Let's get to the bottom line. You can cast all the FUD you want. The bottom line however is Not Guilty.
 
gwb-trading said:
Let's get to the bottom line. You can cast all the FUD you want. The bottom line however is Not Guilty.
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Not casting FUD at all. Just asking what you'd do if you were in that situation. If you don't know, you'd best think about it.
 
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